calguy Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today Charlie Cook over at the Cook Political Report released his final thoughts and predictions on where this election is headed. He has been a bit more bullish and less equivocal about Bidens chances of victory. He believes that sites like RCP and 538 aren't being selective enough with their polling averages, so a lot of shitty right wing numbers are getting thrown in. He believes that Biden is looking at a 9-10 point win nationally and not a 7-8 point win. He also doesn't think the polls are underestimating Trump. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent. I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago. ... What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections—a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/dont-expect-contested-election Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Libswatter Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, calguy said: Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today Charlie Cook over at the Cook Political Report released his final thoughts and predictions on where this election is headed. He has been a bit more bullish and less equivocal about Bidens chances of victory. He believes that sites like RCP and 538 aren't being selective enough with their polling averages, so a lot of shitty right wing numbers are getting thrown in. He believes that Biden is looking at a 9-10 point win nationally and not a 7-8 point win. He also doesn't think the polls are underestimating Trump. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent. I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago. ... What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections—a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/dont-expect-contested-election Ha! Go ahead and put money on it! 😁 https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301082-respected-election-handicapper-calls-election-for-hillary "One of the most respected election handicappers in the country says the presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is now “over,” with victory assured for Clinton, the Democratic nominee. “Take a close look at the new Fox News poll,” tweeted Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report. “This race is OVER.” Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER. https://t.co/YHjQgZ96Gs — Charlie Cook (@CharlieCookDC) October 14, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaro Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, calguy said: Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today Charlie Cook over at the Cook Political Report released his final thoughts and predictions on where this election is headed. He has been a bit more bullish and less equivocal about Bidens chances of victory. He believes that sites like RCP and 538 aren't being selective enough with their polling averages, so a lot of shitty right wing numbers are getting thrown in. He believes that Biden is looking at a 9-10 point win nationally and not a 7-8 point win. He also doesn't think the polls are underestimating Trump. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent. I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago. ... What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections—a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/dont-expect-contested-election This election truly is for the soul of America. Trumpism is gonna get flushed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calguy Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Zaro said: This election truly is for the soul of America. Trumpism is gonna get flushed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skans Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, calguy said: Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today Charlie Cook over at the Cook Political Report released his final thoughts and predictions on where this election is headed. He has been a bit more bullish and less equivocal about Bidens chances of victory. He believes that sites like RCP and 538 aren't being selective enough with their polling averages, so a lot of shitty right wing numbers are getting thrown in. He believes that Biden is looking at a 9-10 point win nationally and not a 7-8 point win. He also doesn't think the polls are underestimating Trump.https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/dont-expect-contested-election Let's verifythis in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calguy Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, Libswatter said: Ha! Go ahead and put money on it! 😁 https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301082-respected-election-handicapper-calls-election-for-hillary "One of the most respected election handicappers in the country says the presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is now “over,” with victory assured for Clinton, the Democratic nominee. “Take a close look at the new Fox News poll,” tweeted Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report. “This race is OVER.” Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER. https://t.co/YHjQgZ96Gs — Charlie Cook (@CharlieCookDC) October 14, 2016 Past results are no guarantee of future returns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calguy Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, Skans said: Let's verifythis in the future. We will indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaro Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, Skans said: Let's verifythis in the future. Gettysburg. Read all about it, asshole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skans Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, Zaro said: Gettysburg. Read all about it, asshole I don't read, I make others bleed Homie on the A-Train Zaro screw'n the B-Train @calguy suck'n the main vein 'n the JoeTard is Insane Dig it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaro Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Skans said: I don't read, I make others bleed Homie on the A-Train Zaro screw'n the B-Train @calguy suck'n the main vein Dig it! Get a bag of wine and go dancing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king of the county Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 58 minutes ago, calguy said: Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today Charlie Cook over at the Cook Political Report released his final thoughts and predictions on where this election is headed. He has been a bit more bullish and less equivocal about Bidens chances of victory. He believes that sites like RCP and 538 aren't being selective enough with their polling averages, so a lot of shitty right wing numbers are getting thrown in. He believes that Biden is looking at a 9-10 point win nationally and not a 7-8 point win. He also doesn't think the polls are underestimating Trump. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent. I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago. ... What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections—a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/dont-expect-contested-election Oh no no ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benson13 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 yup....the rednecks are going to crying, its going to be hilarious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calguy Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, benson13 said: yup....the rednecks are going to crying, its going to be hilarious They're starring right into a bloodbath of major proportions. Or as Moscow Mitch would say, "We are facing a 'challenging' landscape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calguy Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 The Rumblings of Moving Earth Begin- Reports Starting To Come in that GOP Is Not Getting the Turnout Seeing the posts and tweets about reports that GOP turnout is not near what they need to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.