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Polls Are Tightening: Are Liberals Nervous???


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POLITICO Playbook: NEW polls: Two days out, race tightens in Florida and Pennsylvania

 

 

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2020/11/01/new-polls-two-days-out-race-tightens-in-florida-and-pennsylvania-490766

 

 

 

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP is continuing to barnstorm at a frenetic pace, hitting Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida today as he hopes rally size will translate into votes on Tuesday. JOE BIDEN, meanwhile, is focused squarely on Pennsylvania today with multiple events in the Keystone State as polls show the race tightening there.

THE CLOSE OF THE ELECTION comes as the country is facing crises on multiple fronts. THE CORONAVIRUS continues to rage -- more than 9.1 MILLION Americans have tested positive for coronavirus and 230,566Americans have died. States across the country are facing a huge increase in coronavirus cases, hospitals are at or nearing capacity and experts are predicting a long slog into 2021. DR. ANTHONY FAUCI told WaPo Friday that “all the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.”

COVID RELIEF negotiations are dead for the time being. There’s little hope that post-election there will be a catalyst that could spur Speaker NANCY PELOSI and Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN back to the negotiating table in short order to actually work out a deal. Meanwhile Americans are struggling to make ends meet, the economy continues to falter and officials are predicting dire budget forecasts that would leave states unable to pay their bills. 

CITIES are boarding up storefronts as they brace for possible protests. In North Carolina, a peaceful march to the polls turned violent with children being sprayed with pepper spray. After months of social justice protests, the U.S. is still grappling with a reckoning on race in this country. 

NO MATTER THE RESULTS OF THE ELECTION, the question remains: Can and how will this country come back together?

FROM 30,000 FEET -- NYT’S PETER BAKER: “Dishonesty Has Defined the Trump Presidency. The Consequences Could Be Lasting”: “Born amid made-up crowd size claims and ‘alternative facts,’ the Trump presidency has been a factory of falsehood from the start, churning out distortions, conspiracy theories and brazen lies at an assembly-line pace that has challenged fact-checkers and defied historical analogy.

“But now, with the election just days away, the consequences of four years of fabulism are coming into focus as President Trump argues that the vote itself is inherently ‘rigged,’ tearing at the credibility of the system. Should the contest go into extra innings through legal challenges after Tuesday, it may leave a public with little faith in the outcome — and in its own democracy.

“The nightmarish scenario of widespread doubt and denial of the legitimacy of the election would cap a period in American history when truth itself has seemed at stake under a president who has strayed so far from the normal bounds that he creates what allies call his own reality. Even if the election ends with a clear victory or defeat for Mr. Trump, scholars and players alike say the very concept of public trust in an established set of facts necessary for the operation of a democratic society has eroded during his tenure with potentially long-term ramifications.”

STATE OF THE RACE … NEW POLLS: “Post-ABC polls: Biden has slight lead in Pennsylvania; Florida a toss-up,” by WaPo’s Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin: “Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden is at 51 percent to Trump’s 44 percent, and Libertarian Jo Jorgensen is at 3 percent. Biden was leading by 54 percent to 45 percent a month ago. While the shift is slight, Biden no longer holds a statistically significant advantage, given the four-point margin of sampling error that applies to each candidates’ support. Among all registered voters in the Keystone State, Biden is at 49 percent to Trump’s 45 percent, with Jorgensen at 3 percent.

“In Florida, Trump is at 50 percent to Biden’s 48 percent among likely voters. Jorgensen registers at 1 percent. Last month, Trump was at 51 percent and Biden at 47 percent. Among registered voters in Florida, Trump stands at 49 percent with Biden at 47 percent. Last month among registered voters, Biden was at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent. Those month-to-month shifts are not statistically significant.”

-- NYT/SIENNA POLL: “Election at Hand, Biden Leads Trump in Four Key States, Poll Shows,” by NYT’s Alex Burns and Jonthan Martin: “Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a clear advantage over President Trump across four of the most important presidential swing states, a new poll shows, bolstered by the support of voters who did not participate in the 2016 election and who now appear to be turning out in large numbers to cast their ballots, mainly for the Democrat.

“Mr. Biden, the former vice president, is ahead of Mr. Trump in the Northern battlegrounds of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as in the Sun Belt states of Florida and Arizona, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. His strength is most pronounced in Wisconsin, where he has an outright majority of the vote and leads Mr. Trump by 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent.

“Mr. Biden’s performance across the electoral map appears to put him in a stronger position heading into Election Day than any presidential candidate since at least 2008, when in the midst of a global economic crisis Barack Obama captured the White House with 365 Electoral College votes and Mr. Biden at his side.”

-- “Biden leads Trump by 10 points in final pre-election NBC News/WSJ poll,” by NBC’s Mark Murray: “Democrat Joe Biden maintains his double-digit national lead over Republican President Donald Trump in the final national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll before the 2020 presidential election, with six-in-10 voters saying the country is on the wrong track, and with a majority disapproving of the president’s handling of the coronavirus. Biden is ahead of Trump nationally by 10 points among registered voters, 52 percent to 42 percent, in what has been a remarkably stable race over the course of a tumultuous year in American politics.” 

-- CBS: “Biden leads, Trump needs Election Day surge to win,” by Anthony Salvanto, Kabir Khanna and Jennifer De Pinto

DRIVING THE DAY … TRUMP will speak at campaign rallies in Washington, Mich., Dubuque, Iowa, Hickory, N.C., Rome, Ga. and Opa-Locka, Fla. He will spend the night in Doral, Fla. VP MIKE PENCE will attend a Sunday church fellowship in Boone, N.C. ON MONDAY: Trump will campaign in Fayetteville, N.C., Avoca, Pa., Traverse City, Mich., Kenosha, Wis. and Grand Rapids, Mich. Gabby Orr on Trump’s battleground blitz

JOE BIDEN will be in Philadelphia and deliver remarks at a “Souls to the Polls” event and speak at a drive-in event. He will also attend a fundraiser. Sen. KAMALA HARRIS (D-Calif.) will participate in voter mobilization events in Gwinnett County, Ga., Goldsboro and Fayetteville, N.C. 

NOTABLE NAMES FROM BIDEN’S $100K+ BUNDLER LIST: Elizabeth Bagley, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Amb. Matthew Barzun, Jeremy Bash, Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), California A.G. Xavier Becerra, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Crandall and Erskine Bowles, Anastasia Dellaccio, Michèle Flournoy, Nikki Fried, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Jeffrey Katzenberg, Alex Lasry, Marc Lasry, Tim Lim, Caprcia Marshall, Scott Mulhauser, Tom Nides, Ali Rubin, Evan Ryan, Mary and Jeff Zients. 

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SUNDAY BEST… JAKE TAPPER interviewed Biden senior campaign adviser ANITA DUNN on CNN’S “STATE OF THE UNION.” Asked if she was “confident” BIDEN “won't wake up after the election wishing he had done more?”: DUNN: “We have people across-the-board campaigning for us in states all across the country. People that ran against Vice President Biden in the primaries are out in force this weekend. I think everybody is not -- is not leaving anything to chance. We're going to work hard. We're going to work until the polls close. We're going to get every vote we can.”

-- ON WHO IS GOING TO WIN: DUNN: “I'm not in the prediction business. I will leave that to all of you. But we feel confident about where we are. And we feel very confident about our pathways to victory.”

-- CHUCK TODD spoke with Pennsylvania Secretary of State KATHY BOOCKVAR on NBC’S “MEET THE PRESS” about how long it will take to get results in the Keystone State: BOOCKVAR: “This is going to be 10 times as many as the last time we had a presidential election in Pennsylvania. So, yes, it will take longer. But having said that, I want to be clear that elections have never been called election night. … I expect that the overwhelming majority of ballots in Pennsylvania, that's mail-in and absentee ballots, as well as in-person ballots, will be counted within a matter of days. The counties are staffing up, have a ton of equipment, best practices in place, and are planning, for the most part, to count 24/7 until it's done.”

-- CHRIS WALLACE interviewed Trump senior campaign adviser COREY LEWANDOWSKI on FOX NEWS’ “FOX NEWS SUNDAY” via Caitlin Oprysko: “In an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Corey Lewandowski brushed aside such accusations that have stemmed from Trump and the Republican Party looking to limit the collection and processing of a flood of mail-in ballots, as well as videotaping voters at a ballot dropbox in Philadelphia, asserting that Republicans are looking to find voter fraud.

“‘Look, this is about the integrity of the process,’ Lewandowski said,arguing that he didn’t believe anyone in the country should have a problem with the campaign suing to obtain the signatures of voters in Democratic-leaning Clark County, Nevada. ‘To verify via signature that the person who filled out the ballot is actually the one who signed it and sent it back in, I don't think anybody in America has a problem with that. Signature verification is something that takes place in most of the big states that do this well and particularly the state of Florida.’” Full story

-- JASON MILLER predicted an election night victory for TRUMP in an interview with GEORGE STEPHANOPOLOUS on ABC’S “THIS WEEK”: MILLER: “We think that President Trump is going to hold all of the Sun Belt states that he won previously. And as you look to the upper Midwest, Joe Biden has to stop President Trump in four out of four states; Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. If President Trump wins just won of those in three of the four that he won last time, he will be a re-elected president. … We believe that we'll be over 290 electoral votes on election night. So no matter what they try to do, what kind of hijinks or law suits or whatever kind of nonsense they try to pull off, we’re still going to have enough electoral votes to get President Trump re-elected.”

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"The rally attendance records would indicate your are correct. ZERO Republicans attend Biden 'events', and Trump rallies often have up to 25% Dem attendance.

The only rallies where dems are outpacing Republicans are the 'peaceful protest' Biden rallies conducted by BurnLootMurder/Anqueefa. We're outnumbered there 100%."   -- some guy 

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I am looking forward to the MASSIVE SHITSTAIN MELTDOWN tomorrow night!!!

 

I bet youtube will be lit up like a whole auditorium full of Christmas Trees!!!


It's going to be FUNNY AS HELL  watching the MORONS blow themselves up with suicide vests too!!!


I wonder if @benson13 has already got his vest made and ready to go?? He is the one I want them to film in technicolor so it can be made into a movie!! You know, "The Shitstain too stupid to understand that Donald J. Trump is his President"!!


ROFLMAO!!!

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Polls tightening at the end is as predictable as the sun coming up in the east.   Ignore the ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN,  NYT, and wapo polls because they don't make their living on having an accurate poll.    Pay attention to Trafalgar, Emerson, and Rasmussen because their well being is based on being right.  

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Just now, SpyCar said:

Meanwhile, in the land of reality, here is the actual Politico headline:

 

Bill

 

POLITICO's final Election Forecast: Biden in command

And they predicted 4 years ago today..

Christ Bill

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1 minute ago, Z09 said:

Understood..

But predictions and polls have been so off for so long...

 

They were really not that far off in 2016. Trump won some squeakers that was enough to give him the margin of victory in the EC in 2016. He still has a path this time. Seems unlikely, but not impossible.

 

Soon we will not have to worry about polls, but will have the results (hopefully).

 

Bill

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14 minutes ago, SpyCar said:

 

They were really not that far off in 2016. Trump won some squeakers that was enough to give him the margin of victory in the EC in 2016. He still has a path this time. Seems unlikely, but not impossible.

 

Soon we will not have to worry about polls, but will have the results (hopefully).

 

Bill

JMO, but I think the biggest thing Trump has going for him over 2016 is that there isn't a "never Trump" movement.   For example, that by itself literally cost Trump Minnesota last time, with Evan McMullin peeling off enough Republican votes that was more than enough to flip the state.   I really believe that Trump expanded his base a lot in the last 4 years.  

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Just now, Butthead said:

JMO, but I think the biggest thing Trump has going for him over 2016 is that there isn't a "never Trump" movement.   For example, that by itself literally cost Trump Minnesota last time, with Evan McMullin peeling off enough Republican votes that was more than enough to flip the state.   I really believe that Trump expanded his base a lot in the last 4 years.  

 

To me it seems the Never Trump movement is bigger than ever.

 

And they are not supporting a third party candidate--instead sane Republicans are peeling off and voting for Joe Biden. We know such types in Arizona, where anti-Trumpist Republicans are many.

 

Trump is losing the suburbs and losing with people with educations.

 

Biden was the perfect candidate for us Democrats to run and he has strong bipartisan appeal. He will be a president for all Americans and will work to unite the country--rather than trying to do the opposite (like Trump).

 

Bill 

 

 

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1 minute ago, SpyCar said:

Biden was the perfect candidate for us Democrats to run and he has strong bipartisan appeal.

 

He  can't even speak, and is an  idiot who has never  made it out of the   first round of the  primaries...    including this time.   He was dead.   The DNC forced everyone to  drop out.

 

You are in fantasy land 

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Trump is amazing!  Trump is campaigning circles around Biden, and Biden doesn't even know it.  The biggest difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is that Trump really wants the job of being the American people's president.  Biden could care less about real people and wants 2 things:  1) to protect himself and his family from corruption and bribery prosecution and 2) to cap off his  47 year political career.

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1 minute ago, Skans said:

Trump is amazing!  Trump is campaigning circles around Biden, and Biden doesn't even know it.  The biggest difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is that Trump really wants the job of being the American people's president.  Biden could care less about real people and wants 2 things:  1) to protect himself and his family from corruption and bribery prosecution and 2) to cap off his  47 year political career.

trump's main motivation is trying to remain immune from prosecution once he leaves office. 

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Just now, calguy said:

I'm not worried in the least. Rarely, if ever, have we gone into election day with half of the vote already cast. Polling the day before doesn't mean very much.

Seems to me that it should mean more.    If half of the votes are already cast, the polls should be much more accurate.   

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Just now, Butthead said:

Seems to me that it should mean more.    If half of the votes are already cast, the polls should be much more accurate.   

My opinion is worth as much as yours. Neither opinion means a whole hell of a lot one day out.

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5 minutes ago, calguy said:

trump's main motivation is trying to remain immune from prosecution once he leaves office. 

Nothing could be farther from the truth.  Trump has absolutely nothing to fear with regard to Democrat alleged criminal activity.  Trump has already been investigated by the FBI - Muller said "no colluison".  Trump has already been investigated by the House Impeachment - conclusion - acquitted on all fake charges.

 

Biden, on the other hand, was caught red-handed taking bribes from the Chinese Communist Party, through his son Hunter Biden. 

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2 minutes ago, calguy said:

My opinion is worth as much as yours. Neither opinion means a whole hell of a lot one day out.

You can't have it both ways.    With 50% of the vote in already, the polls are less reflective of an opinion or a projection and more about reporting what has already happened.  Why would polls mean nothing a day out when half of the equation is already known?

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2 minutes ago, Butthead said:

You can't have it both ways.    With 50% of the vote in already, the polls are less reflective of an opinion or a projection and more about reporting what has already happened.  Why would polls mean nothing a day out when half of the equation is already known?

Just stating my opinion. Feel free to disagree with it. 

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17 minutes ago, Skans said:

Trump is amazing!  Trump is campaigning circles around Biden, and Biden doesn't even know it.  The biggest difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is that Trump really wants the job of being the American people's president.  Biden could care less about real people and wants 2 things:  1) to protect himself and his family from corruption and bribery prosecution and 2) to cap off his  47 year political career.

 

Nah. Trump is just demonstrating that he put no regard on human life.

 

He has zero issues with exposing his "followers" to a potentially deadly virus and he has no issues with leaving them stranded w/o transportation to freeze in the cold.

 

He's a complete sociopath and has narcissistic personality disorder.

 

Trump is the one who is desperately trying to keep himself and his crime family out of prison.

 

Bill

 

 

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