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Joe Biden says "I’ll lead an effective strategy to mobilize trunalimunumaprzure."


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11 hours ago, king of the county said:

I’m concerned the guy who has selected the presidential winner since 1984 picks Biden to win 

 

First of all king, the guy (Allan Lichtman) announced his pick of Biden back on Aug 5, 2020 (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/biden-will-beat-trump-says-historian-who-predicted-every-race-since-1984.html ) when all the MSM was claiming Biden had a double digit lead.   At that time he said his model favored Biden in 7 of the 13 categories he uses to make his prediction.  Here are the 13 categories and his assessment of them back in August.   Let’s see if his answers still hold water …


1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections. False. “Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 0

 

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. True. “No Republicans challenged Trump.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 1

 

3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election. True. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 2

 

4. Third Party: There is no major third-party challenge. True. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 3

 

5. Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession. False. “The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession.”

 

This answer is no longer valid.   The recovery has been strong.   We had over 30% GDP growth the last quarter.   We are not in a recession now.   Also, the growing perception is that it’s democRATS who are keeping the economies in blue states bad and that Biden would only make it worse.     Even many democRATS admit this.

 

So Biden 1 Trump 4

 

6. Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. False. “The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.”

 

This answer is no longer valid.  Real annual per capita GDP growth during the last quarter has wiped out the loss that happened the previous quarter so that GDP during Trump’s term is once again greater than it was during Obama’s two terms.   People are much better off under Trump than they were coming into his Presidency.

 

So Biden 1 Trump 5

 

7. Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national policy. True. ”Through his tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 6

 

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign. False. “There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order.”

 

While there has been sustained social unrest under Trump, in the past year the perception has shifted so that even many democRATS thinks it’s being done by Trump’s opponents just to hurt America and help Biden win.  They can’t help but notice that it’s in democRAT controlled communities that the allies of Trump’s opponent have been burning and looting democRAT communities.   And that democRATS leaders have ignored that.    That only Trump has been the voice of reason in dealing with that violence and mayhem.   So maybe the voters in those communities are going to think it’s time for a change … not away from Trump but to him.

 

Biden 1 Trump 6 Neutral 1

 

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals. False. “As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus, he has plenty of other scandals.”

 

Since August, it’s become clear to anyone paying any attention that Trump's administration is relatively scandal free compared to the scandals during the Obama administration and the scandals now engulfing his opponent in the election.   Litchman is an idiot if he thinks the impeachment hurt Trump or that any other scandal has stuck to him.   But with respect to Obama and Biden, reports of scandal have been coming out non-stop the past two months.   It got so bad for Biden that the media had to step in and try to overtly silence the conservative news outlets … and that only produced more awareness of Biden’s scandals even amongst democRATS.    Some of those news outlets are now mentioning Biden's scandals.   So Litchman’s answer to this has to have shifted from False to True, or neutral at best, relative to his opponent.   

 

Biden 1 Trump 6 Neutral 2

 

10. Foreign or Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. True. “We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 7 Neutral 2

 

11. Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. False. “While Trump hasn’t had any big, splashy failures, he hasn’t had any major successes either.”

 

Litchman’s answerhas to also have changed from False to True, because since August Trump has been nominated for (I think now) FOUR Peace Prizes for his diplomatic victories in the Middle East.

 

Biden 1 Trump 8 Neutral 2

 

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. False. “Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.”

 

Lichtman’s assessment for it this category is now demonstrably garbage.   He claims that Trump only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.   Sorry, but Trump's appeal is 100 times that of Biden/CommieLA in terms of *charisma*, which is why there are HUGE boat and car rallies for Trump across the nation and Trump (AND HIS SURROGATES) are filling the seats at his arena and airport rallies ... when Biden can’t even get a couple dozen people to show up at his.

 

Biden 1 Trump 9 Neutral 2

 

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic. True. “Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he’s not inspirational or charismatic.”

 

Biden 1 Trump 10 Neutral 2


Clearly, Litchman, if he were unbiased would have revised his estimate from August, given all that's happened.  BUT HE HAS NOT.   Here's what he's currently saying ... https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/xhgpcyoa/release/2 .   Same thing.   He hasn't altered his answers AT ALL despite all that's occurred the past 2 months.   So his methodology is obvious garbage and he's has succumbed to TDS, like so many other left leaning *experts*.

 

Oh ... and by the way, king ... he did NOT predict the outcome of the 2016 election.  He did not predict that Trump would win the electoral vote.  His methodology predicted Trump would win the popular vote, which he did not.   He also claims he correctly predicted the 2000 election when in fact he predicted a Gore victory, just because Gore won the popular vote.  But Gore lost that election, didn't he?  Litchman's model did the same thing when applied to the 1876 and 1888 elections, when it predicted as winners candidates who lost even they they won the popular vote.

 

So let your heart not be troubled by this left-leaning hack, king.

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34 minutes ago, BeAChooser said:

 

First of all king, the guy (Allan Lichtman) announced his pick of Biden back on Aug 5, 2020 (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/biden-will-beat-trump-says-historian-who-predicted-every-race-since-1984.html ) when all the MSM was claiming Biden had a double digit lead.   At that time he said his model favored Biden in 7 of the 13 categories he uses to make his prediction.  Here are the 13 categories and his assessment of them back in August.   Let’s see if his answers still hold water …


1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections. False. “Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 0

 

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. True. “No Republicans challenged Trump.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 1

 

3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election. True. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 2

 

4. Third Party: There is no major third-party challenge. True. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 3

 

5. Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession. False. “The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession.”

 

This answer is no longer valid.   The recovery has been strong.   We had over 30% GDP growth the last quarter.   We are not in a recession now.   Also, the growing perception is that it’s democRATS who are keeping the economies in blue states bad and that Biden would only make it worse.     Even many democRATS admit this.

 

So Biden 1 Trump 4

 

6. Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. False. “The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.”

 

This answer is no longer valid.  Real annual per capita GDP growth during the last quarter has wiped out the loss that happened the previous quarter so that GDP during Trump’s term is once again greater than it was during Obama’s two terms.   People are much better off under Trump than they were coming into his Presidency.

 

So Biden 1 Trump 5

 

7. Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national policy. True. ”Through his tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 6

 

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign. False. “There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order.”

 

While there has been sustained social unrest under Trump, in the past year the perception has shifted so that even many democRATS thinks it’s being done by Trump’s opponents just to hurt America and help Biden win.  They can’t help but notice that it’s in democRAT controlled communities that the allies of Trump’s opponent have been burning and looting democRAT communities.   And that democRATS leaders have ignored that.    That only Trump has been the voice of reason in dealing with that violence and mayhem.   So maybe the voters in those communities are going to think it’s time for a change … not away from Trump but to him.

 

Biden 1 Trump 6 Neutral 1

 

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals. False. “As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus, he has plenty of other scandals.”

 

Since August, it’s become clear to anyone paying any attention that Trump's administration is relatively scandal free compared to the scandals during the Obama administration and the scandals now engulfing his opponent in the election.   Litchman is an idiot if he thinks the impeachment hurt Trump or that any other scandal has stuck to him.   But with respect to Obama and Biden, reports of scandal have been coming out non-stop the past two months.   It got so bad for Biden that the media had to step in and try to overtly silence the conservative news outlets … and that only produced more awareness of Biden’s scandals even amongst democRATS.    Some of those news outlets are now mentioning Biden's scandals.   So Litchman’s answer to this has to have shifted from False to True, or neutral at best, relative to his opponent.   

 

Biden 1 Trump 6 Neutral 2

 

10. Foreign or Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. True. “We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true.”

 

This hasn't changed.   Biden 1 Trump 7 Neutral 2

 

11. Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. False. “While Trump hasn’t had any big, splashy failures, he hasn’t had any major successes either.”

 

Litchman’s answerhas to also have changed from False to True, because since August Trump has been nominated for (I think now) FOUR Peace Prizes for his diplomatic victories in the Middle East.

 

Biden 1 Trump 8 Neutral 2

 

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. False. “Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.”

 

Lichtman’s assessment for it this category is now demonstrably garbage.   He claims that Trump only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.   Sorry, but Trump's appeal is 100 times that of Biden/CommieLA in terms of *charisma*, which is why there are HUGE boat and car rallies for Trump across the nation and Trump (AND HIS SURROGATES) are filling the seats at his arena and airport rallies ... when Biden can’t even get a couple dozen people to show up at his.

 

Biden 1 Trump 9 Neutral 2

 

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic. True. “Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he’s not inspirational or charismatic.”

 

Biden 1 Trump 10 Neutral 2


Clearly, Litchman, if he were unbiased would have revised his estimate from August, given all that's happened.  BUT HE HAS NOT.   Here's what he's currently saying ... https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/xhgpcyoa/release/2 .   Same thing.   He hasn't altered his answers AT ALL despite all that's occurred the past 2 months.   So his methodology is obvious garbage and he's has succumbed to TDS, like so many other left leaning *experts*.

 

Oh ... and by the way, king ... he did NOT predict the outcome of the 2016 election.  He did not predict that Trump would win the electoral vote.  His methodology predicted Trump would win the popular vote, which he did not.   He also claims he correctly predicted the 2000 election when in fact he predicted a Gore victory, just because Gore won the popular vote.  But Gore lost that election, didn't he?  Litchman's model did the same thing when applied to the 1876 and 1888 elections, when it predicted as winners candidates who lost even they they won the popular vote.

 

So let your heart not be troubled by this left-leaning hack, king.

I watched him announce it last night i think he was live it wasn’t recorded 

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3 minutes ago, king of the county said:

I watched him announce it last night i think he was live it wasn’t recorded 

 

Except that I linked his exact same claim back in early august.  So it's old news, rehashed to try and impact the election towards Biden.   He's a HACK, king.

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14 minutes ago, king of the county said:

Here’s another one 

 

 

Biden leaves his Michigan rally confused with his latest senior moment as he claims he and Obama believe 'it's a right to have badakathcare' 

SMH...

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