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2020 Election Odds: Trump Gets 12% Increase in Implied Probability of Winning Over Past Month

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Odds as of Aug. 28 and via European sportsbook Betfair. Note that the implied probabilities do not include the tax the sportsbook charges. Biden’s and Trump’s odds also do not add up to 100% as Betfair is offering odds for other candidates.

If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s +100 odds mean a $100 bet would net $100 if he wins. Convert more using our Betting Odds Calculator.

Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2020 election have jumped substantially over the past month: Since July 30, his implied probability has improved from 33.4% (+175) to 45.4% (+100) at European sportsbook Betfair — a 12% increase.

These are his best odds since early June.

Now a day after accepting renomination at the Republican National Convention, Trump is within striking distance of Joe Biden, who is still favored but has seen his implied probability fall from 61.2% (-200) to 49.6% (-120) over the same span (11.6% decrease).

Biden’s lead on the oddsboard has notably shrunk since the start of the party conventions two weeks ago. The former Vice President was a -149 (54.1%) favorite on Aug. 17, Day 1 of the Democratic National Convention.

Interestingly, the recent movement at Betfair bucks the trend of FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls over the same span: Biden had a +8.3 lead on July 30 and now sits at +9.1 as of writing.

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