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Why Trump Will Never Win His New Cold War with China


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Even more stunning was the notion that Washington could win a Cold War with Beijing, former U.S. envoys told me. “We could win a Cold War with the Soviet Union thirty years ago, but we can’t win a Cold War with China today,” the anonymous Ambassador said. Unlike the Soviet Union, China is too integrated into the world economy, a point that Pompeo conceded. “Beijing is more dependent on us than we are on them,” he claimed. Yet America is also dependent on China for many basic commodities, including roughly half of its medical supplies. China is the U.S.’s second-largest source of car parts—surpassing Canada, and tripling in value since 2007. Many are made in Wuhan, nicknamed the Motor City of China, and the initial center of the pandemic. If China stopped exporting parts, it could close down multiple U.S. plants. In 2017, China provided sixty per cent of all imported electronics, including cell phones, to the American market. China even provides a significant share of bicycles sold in the United States. China is also a valuable market for American goods. China has provided “the greatest contribution to global growth and fastest-growing destination for U.S. exports for fifteen years, until the Trump Administration,” Robert Zoellick, the former World Bank president, said at the Aspen Security Forum this month. The former Ambassador who asked not to be named added, “They have a lot of leverage over us.”

 

Throughout the last Cold War, which spanned more than four decades, the U.S. had powerful allies on the European front lines to stand united, pool resources, and squeeze Moscow. Today, all major U.S. allies in and around Asia, including Australia, want to foster coöperation, not confrontation, with China—and don’t want to choose between Washington and Beijing. All of America’s old friends in the Asia-Pacific region—Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Taiwan—have more trade with China than with the United States, Roy said, which means that “Polarization doesn’t align with their interests.” Western allies don’t want confrontation, either. A U.S. Cold War with China could be quite lonely.

Unlike the last Cold War, which pitted Washington and Moscow against each other in proxy military conflicts on four continents, Beijing has expanded its influence largely by investing in development projects, from as far afield as Ecuador and Kenya. The projects are self-serving—pushing some countries, like Ecuador, into chronic debt, or making them virtual tributary states. China’s railway projects in Africa are partly to provide transportation to export badly needed raw materials to China. Its Belt and Road Initiative, launched by Xi in 2013, is one of the most ambitious development schemes ever conceived. It seeks to create a new transcontinental Silk Road—by land and sea—from China to Europe. It’s way too late to do to the People’s Republic what the U.S. and its Western allies did to the Soviet Union.

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Trump is also starting his new Cold War with a weak hand. He has reduced U.S. engagement globally as China has deepened involvement. Within two days of taking office, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership of twelve nations that accounted for forty per cent of the world’s economic output. Amid the pandemic this year, Trump withdrew from the World Health Organization, the U.N. agency founded, in 1948, to deal with pandemics and public health. Beijing pledged to increase its financial commitment to the organization. Trump also has limited leverage with the world right now. America is deeply unpopular globally, according to a Gallup poll released on Monday. A survey of public opinion in a hundred and thirty-five countries found that, on average, only a third of the world approves of the current U.S. leadership—only one point higher than approval of the leadership in China (and only three points higher than Russian leadership). That, too, does not bode well for rallying global support to confront or contain Asia’s powerhouse.

the usa cant win this  history is on chinas side to be on top in 21st century in most ways
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15 hours ago, guilluamezenz said:
the usa cant win this  history is on chinas side to be on top in 21st century in most ways


That's nonsense.  China was getting it's ass bloodied all to hell in WWII by little Japan before the US stepped in and saved it.  China is not nearly as strong as you may think and is far more vulnerable than they let on.  The bigger concern is if the US actually goes too far in the cold war against China, decimating the economy of over 1 Billion people.

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10 hours ago, Skans said:


That's nonsense.  China was getting it's ass bloodied all to hell in WWII by little Japan before the US stepped in and saved it.  China is not nearly as strong as you may think and is far more vulnerable than they let on.  The bigger concern is if the US actually goes too far in the cold war against China, decimating the economy of over 1 Billion people.

this isnt 1945 china is ascending like we were in 1900

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11 hours ago, guilluamezenz said:

this isnt 1945 china is ascending like we were in 1900

That's right, it is not 1945 and China is not ascending like the United States ever did.  The two countries are not comparable.  I was simply pointing out that China is far more vulnerable than you could ever imagine.  And, that actually presents a different problem.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/28/2020 at 7:41 AM, Skans said:

That's right, it is not 1945 and China is not ascending like the United States ever did.  The two countries are not comparable.  I was simply pointing out that China is far more vulnerable than you could ever imagine.  And, that actually presents a different problem.

The Covic virus exposed the weakness of America 

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45 minutes ago, Zaro said:

The Covic virus exposed the weakness of America 

I would agree that Covid exposed a weakness of America, but not "the weakness of America".    So would many things, like an electrical grid shutdown or poor governance like what we had with Obama and his pandering to countries like Iran.  America is not immune from everything. There will always be events and poor leaders that test our mettle and some will expose weaknesses.  The real test of America is how quickly it gets back up on its horse and starts plowing fields again at record pace.

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On 9/10/2020 at 3:24 PM, Skans said:

I would agree that Covid exposed a weakness of America, but not "the weakness of America".    

America is a shithole that can't perform under pressure. Third-rate

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On 9/12/2020 at 2:39 PM, Zaro said:

America is a shithole that can't perform under pressure. Third-rate

Please, leave the "shithole" and seek a nicer place like Columbia or Venezuela. 

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On 9/12/2020 at 12:39 PM, Zaro said:

America is a shithole that can't perform under pressure. Third-rate

 

The Ability of America to perform under pressure and prevail was taken away from it by money-grubbing politicians moving our industrial self-sufficiency out of the nation and farming it out to other countries.

 

America remains a great country, provided we can learn from our mistakes.

 

Of course, if you think "America is a shithole", then feel free to pack your happy ass up and find someplace better.

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On 9/12/2020 at 2:39 PM, Zaro said:

America is a shithole that can't perform under pressure. Third-rate

  You sound like you would be MUCH happier in China where the people are not allowed to live where they want to live.

 In China where you are told where you will work and live.

 In China where IF you disagree with the ruling government, you go to prison, go to re-education camps or just permanently disappear from the face of the earth (executed).

 In China where the ruling elite live like kings and everyone else is just a peon who is only good enough to serve the ruling elite.

  YOU would really enjoy living there!                      :)  :):) 

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