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Why Trump Will Never Win His New Cold War with China


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Even more stunning was the notion that Washington could win a Cold War with Beijing, former U.S. envoys told me. “We could win a Cold War with the Soviet Union thirty years ago, but we can’t win a Cold War with China today,” the anonymous Ambassador said. Unlike the Soviet Union, China is too integrated into the world economy, a point that Pompeo conceded. “Beijing is more dependent on us than we are on them,” he claimed. Yet America is also dependent on China for many basic commodities, including roughly half of its medical supplies. China is the U.S.’s second-largest source of car parts—surpassing Canada, and tripling in value since 2007. Many are made in Wuhan, nicknamed the Motor City of China, and the initial center of the pandemic. If China stopped exporting parts, it could close down multiple U.S. plants. In 2017, China provided sixty per cent of all imported electronics, including cell phones, to the American market. China even provides a significant share of bicycles sold in the United States. China is also a valuable market for American goods. China has provided “the greatest contribution to global growth and fastest-growing destination for U.S. exports for fifteen years, until the Trump Administration,” Robert Zoellick, the former World Bank president, said at the Aspen Security Forum this month. The former Ambassador who asked not to be named added, “They have a lot of leverage over us.”

 

Throughout the last Cold War, which spanned more than four decades, the U.S. had powerful allies on the European front lines to stand united, pool resources, and squeeze Moscow. Today, all major U.S. allies in and around Asia, including Australia, want to foster coöperation, not confrontation, with China—and don’t want to choose between Washington and Beijing. All of America’s old friends in the Asia-Pacific region—Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Taiwan—have more trade with China than with the United States, Roy said, which means that “Polarization doesn’t align with their interests.” Western allies don’t want confrontation, either. A U.S. Cold War with China could be quite lonely.

Unlike the last Cold War, which pitted Washington and Moscow against each other in proxy military conflicts on four continents, Beijing has expanded its influence largely by investing in development projects, from as far afield as Ecuador and Kenya. The projects are self-serving—pushing some countries, like Ecuador, into chronic debt, or making them virtual tributary states. China’s railway projects in Africa are partly to provide transportation to export badly needed raw materials to China. Its Belt and Road Initiative, launched by Xi in 2013, is one of the most ambitious development schemes ever conceived. It seeks to create a new transcontinental Silk Road—by land and sea—from China to Europe. It’s way too late to do to the People’s Republic what the U.S. and its Western allies did to the Soviet Union.

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Trump is also starting his new Cold War with a weak hand. He has reduced U.S. engagement globally as China has deepened involvement. Within two days of taking office, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership of twelve nations that accounted for forty per cent of the world’s economic output. Amid the pandemic this year, Trump withdrew from the World Health Organization, the U.N. agency founded, in 1948, to deal with pandemics and public health. Beijing pledged to increase its financial commitment to the organization. Trump also has limited leverage with the world right now. America is deeply unpopular globally, according to a Gallup poll released on Monday. A survey of public opinion in a hundred and thirty-five countries found that, on average, only a third of the world approves of the current U.S. leadership—only one point higher than approval of the leadership in China (and only three points higher than Russian leadership). That, too, does not bode well for rallying global support to confront or contain Asia’s powerhouse.

the usa cant win this  history is on chinas side to be on top in 21st century in most ways
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15 hours ago, guilluamezenz said:
the usa cant win this  history is on chinas side to be on top in 21st century in most ways


That's nonsense.  China was getting it's ass bloodied all to hell in WWII by little Japan before the US stepped in and saved it.  China is not nearly as strong as you may think and is far more vulnerable than they let on.  The bigger concern is if the US actually goes too far in the cold war against China, decimating the economy of over 1 Billion people.

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10 hours ago, Skans said:


That's nonsense.  China was getting it's ass bloodied all to hell in WWII by little Japan before the US stepped in and saved it.  China is not nearly as strong as you may think and is far more vulnerable than they let on.  The bigger concern is if the US actually goes too far in the cold war against China, decimating the economy of over 1 Billion people.

this isnt 1945 china is ascending like we were in 1900

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11 hours ago, guilluamezenz said:

this isnt 1945 china is ascending like we were in 1900

That's right, it is not 1945 and China is not ascending like the United States ever did.  The two countries are not comparable.  I was simply pointing out that China is far more vulnerable than you could ever imagine.  And, that actually presents a different problem.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/28/2020 at 7:41 AM, Skans said:

That's right, it is not 1945 and China is not ascending like the United States ever did.  The two countries are not comparable.  I was simply pointing out that China is far more vulnerable than you could ever imagine.  And, that actually presents a different problem.

The Covic virus exposed the weakness of America 

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45 minutes ago, Zaro said:

The Covic virus exposed the weakness of America 

I would agree that Covid exposed a weakness of America, but not "the weakness of America".    So would many things, like an electrical grid shutdown or poor governance like what we had with Obama and his pandering to countries like Iran.  America is not immune from everything. There will always be events and poor leaders that test our mettle and some will expose weaknesses.  The real test of America is how quickly it gets back up on its horse and starts plowing fields again at record pace.

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On 9/10/2020 at 3:24 PM, Skans said:

I would agree that Covid exposed a weakness of America, but not "the weakness of America".    

America is a shithole that can't perform under pressure. Third-rate

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On 9/12/2020 at 12:39 PM, Zaro said:

America is a shithole that can't perform under pressure. Third-rate

 

The Ability of America to perform under pressure and prevail was taken away from it by money-grubbing politicians moving our industrial self-sufficiency out of the nation and farming it out to other countries.

 

America remains a great country, provided we can learn from our mistakes.

 

Of course, if you think "America is a shithole", then feel free to pack your happy ass up and find someplace better.

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On 9/12/2020 at 2:39 PM, Zaro said:

America is a shithole that can't perform under pressure. Third-rate

  You sound like you would be MUCH happier in China where the people are not allowed to live where they want to live.

 In China where you are told where you will work and live.

 In China where IF you disagree with the ruling government, you go to prison, go to re-education camps or just permanently disappear from the face of the earth (executed).

 In China where the ruling elite live like kings and everyone else is just a peon who is only good enough to serve the ruling elite.

  YOU would really enjoy living there!                      :)  :):) 

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On 8/27/2020 at 10:48 PM, Skans said:

That's nonsense.  China was getting it's ass bloodied all to hell in WWII by little Japan before the US stepped in and saved it.  China is not nearly as strong as you may think and is far more vulnerable than they let on.  The bigger concern is if the US actually goes too far in the cold war against China, decimating the economy of over 1 Billion people.

 

WWII is proof that 80 years later, China is weak.

Thanks for the laughs!

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On 9/22/2020 at 8:47 PM, bgr39 said:

You sound like you would be MUCH happier in China where the people are not allowed to live where they want to live.

 In China where you are told where you will work and live.

 

This is not even remotely true.

 

Quote

 In China where IF you disagree with the ruling government, you go to prison, go to re-education camps or just permanently disappear from the face of the earth (executed).

 

If you're so opposed to this, why did you vote for Trump?

 

On 9/22/2020 at 8:47 PM, bgr39 said:

In China where the ruling elite live like kings and everyone else is just a peon who is only good enough to serve the ruling elite.

 

As opposed to America, where there is no wealth gap at all?

 

This isn't the fucking 1950s... there is a growing middle class in China whose living standards are comparable to that of a normal middle class American. And unlike the US, China is actually trying to IMPROVE everyone's standard of living, not simply transfer wealth upwards.

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4 hours ago, Toldya said:

 

WWII is proof that 80 years later, China is weak.

Thanks for the laughs!

You obviously know nothing about Imperial Japan or China prior to WWII and during that war.   Or of how the Japanese brutalized the Chinese.  Keep laughing, it makes you look stupid.

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1 hour ago, Skans said:

You obviously know nothing about Imperial Japan or China prior to WWII and during that war.   Or of how the Japanese brutalized the Chinese.  Keep laughing, it makes you look stupid.

 

So this proves that 80-90 years later, everything is exactly the same?

This is the argument you're trying to make?

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1 minute ago, Toldya said:

 

So this proves that 80 years later, everything is exactly the same?

 

No.  It doesn't prove anything, other than the historical relationship between China, Japan and the US.

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12 minutes ago, Skans said:

No.  It doesn't prove anything, other than the historical relationship between China, Japan and the US.

 

So why bring it up as if it proves that the US is going to win?

That wouldn't even be the kind of war that anyone would win.

 

And seriously... what do you think would happen right now if the US involved itself in such a war? On top of all the bullshit that's going on now, how do you think that would that play domestically OR internationally?

 

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12 minutes ago, Toldya said:

 

So why bring it up as if it proves that the US is going to win?

That wouldn't even be the kind of war that anyone would win.

 

And seriously... what do you think would happen right now if the US involved itself in such a war? On top of all the bullshit that's going on now, how do you think that would that play domestically OR internationally?

 

I said what I said about china in response to this statement:  "the usa cant win this  history is on chinas side to be on top in 21st century in most ways"

 

China is a country that has been around a very long time.  Looking at how China turns out not to be as strong as it portrays, historically, is a valuable thing to know and understand, even today as we are in an economic battle with China.  China is not the country that most think it is.  It has huge vulnerabilities, which it likes to hide.

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3 minutes ago, Skans said:

China is a country that has been around a very long time.  Looking at how China turns out not to be as strong as it portrays, historically, is a valuable thing to know and understand, even today as we are in an economic battle with China.  China is not the country that most think it is.  It has huge vulnerabilities, which it likes to hide.

 

When Japan invaded, it basically had no central government and had been ruled by feudal-style warlords for decades. The problem was that it hadn't opened itself up to the world and fell behind, was flooded with addictive drugs by the British, then lost a series of wars. They were the weakest they had been in very long time when Japan annexed Manchuria. There was no pretense of being strong.

 

This time is very, very different from then. They have learned their lesson from then and are now going out of their way to forge relationships with other countries and gain allies via infrastructure projects and trade. There is absolutely no reason to expect history to repeat itself this time.

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1 minute ago, Toldya said:

 

When Japan invaded, it basically had no central government and had been ruled by feudal-style warlords for decades. The problem was that it hadn't opened itself up to the world and fell behind, was flooded with addictive drugs by the British, then lost a series of wars. They were the weakest they had been in very long time when Japan annexed Manchuria. There was no pretense of being strong.

 

This time is very, very different from then. They have learned their lesson from then and are now going out of their way to forge relationships with other countries and gain allies via infrastructure projects and trade. There is absolutely no reason to expect history to repeat itself this time.

I assume that you are saying that when Japan invaded, China had no central government....  You are correct that during the transition from its imperial era to more of a republic, China was in a weakened state.  It had been mismanaged for a period of time and weakened by other external forces as well. \

 

Japan, on the other hand, had embarked on a concerted effort to gain financial and economic power through a number of rather innovative methods, starting in the late 1800's.  I believe the Japanese rulers engaged in a long-term concerted effort to take advantage of China's weakness.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Skans said:

I assume that you are saying that when Japan invaded, China had no central government....  You are correct that during the transition from its imperial era to more of a republic, China was in a weakened state.  It had been mismanaged for a period of time and weakened by other external forces as well. \

 

Japan, on the other hand, had embarked on a concerted effort to gain financial and economic power through a number of rather innovative methods, starting in the late 1800's.  I believe the Japanese rulers engaged in a long-term concerted effort to take advantage of China's weakness.

 

 

 

It never fully stabilized or united until the Communists took over. There was actually a point in the 19th century when a huge portion of China was ruled by a cult leader who thought he was the second coming of Christ.

 

There was a degree of 'mismanagement' that made it vulnerable and resulted in losing a series of wars starting in the middle of the 19th century... primarily due to its isolationism (sort of like what Trump wants to do to the US).

 

But China hasn't lost any major wars lately and it isn't isolating itself. Modern China has very little in common with China from the beginning of the 20th century.

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52 minutes ago, Toldya said:

 

It never fully stabilized or united until the Communists took over. There was actually a point in the 19th century when a huge portion of China was ruled by a cult leader who thought he was the second coming of Christ.

 

There was a degree of 'mismanagement' that made it vulnerable and resulted in losing a series of wars starting in the middle of the 19th century... primarily due to its isolationism (sort of like what Trump wants to do to the US).

 

But China hasn't lost any major wars lately and it isn't isolating itself. Modern China has very little in common with China from the beginning of the 20th century.

Modern China has other problems. Its rulers are highly authoritarian.  They have made enemies of the people of Hong Kong and Taiwan.  They have mistreated large populations within their own country.  Nor are they on very good terms with countries to the south of them, South Korea or with Japan.  Their economy has been all but decimated.  It is in worse shape than the Communist Leaders will ever admit.  China is truly vulnerable right now, and if we wanted to, we could make them even more vulnerable.   Money is Power.  Take China's money away, and they rapidly lose power.  The Asian Wolves will bide their time before making a run at China again.

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3 hours ago, Skans said:

Modern China has other problems. Its rulers are highly authoritarian.  They have made enemies of the people of Hong Kong and Taiwan.  They have mistreated large populations within their own country.  Nor are they on very good terms with countries to the south of them, South Korea or with Japan. 

 

China is stable... moreso than the US. The majority of Chinese feel the same way about the Hong Kong protests (riots) as you do about the 'left wing' violence in major cities across the US. Japan and South Korea have an active interest in a stable East Asia... they are more upset about Trump killing the TPP, the trade war than they are about China. The last election in South Korea proves it-- the conservatives lost, and that was the pro-America party. Japan just got a new Prime Minister as well. With Trump turning America to shit and the looming collapse, they all have an active interest in making friends with China. The Uyghur situation is terrible but you can expect them to get even less support from the region as Palestine gets in the Middle East... nobody wants to destabilize the entire region for the sake of a bunch of Muslims with a history of committing terrorist attacks.

 

3 hours ago, Skans said:

Their economy has been all but decimated.  It is in worse shape than the Communist Leaders will ever admit.  China is truly vulnerable right now, and if we wanted to, we could make them even more vulnerable.

 

The economy is RECOVERING. This is from YESTERDAY:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-manufacturing-activity-rises-in-september-2020-9

 

The virus is practically GONE from the entire country, and if it comes back they are in a far better position than the US to deal with it. Everything is basically back to normal, and that means they're way ahead of the US in terms of getting back to business. And it's not like the US markets are based on reality... they're currently using bailout money to prop up their own stocks. But with this election chaos looming, and the very real threat of collapse and sustained civil conflict, it won't take long for investors to start pulling out.

 

Meanwhile, China doesn't have a Trump spreading misinformation and sowing division, they don't have right wing morons refusing to wear masks or follow the rules or threatening to kill people for making them show basic considerations for other people. There was a small uproar at first over the fact that they let it spread, but in the end the Chinese people are happy because the virus is contained there while the US descends into absolute fucking apocalypse.

 

The one card that the US had-- its global leadership role and how it could have leveraged it to lead an allied resistance to China-- was pretty much the only effective strategy left after the TPP. Trump shit all over that by slapping every single allied nation in the face over and over until they turned their backs on him. I don't even think China could have done a better job of fucking things up for the US if they had tried. Or maybe they're going to pay back Trump's enormous debt for him? It would explain a lot. 

 

3 hours ago, Skans said:

Money is Power.  Take China's money away, and they rapidly lose power.  The Asian Wolves will bide their time before making a run at China again.

 

LOL... then China sells off its US debt and the whole economy collapses. The fact is that China's rise cannot be stopped. They WILL dominate east Asia... they're already undertaking infrastructure projects in the region that assures as much.

 

Germany AND the EU are turning their backs on the US. The US doesn't have the economic clout anymore... and military power doesn't win cold wars. The US couldn't win the war even if they DIDN'T have all of this Trump-related bullshit going on.

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3 minutes ago, Toldya said:

 

China is stable... moreso than the US.

That is very far from the truth.  But, the one thing I think China will do is come up with a vaccine before it is thoroughly tested and force its people to get the shot.  And, you know what - it'll work.   We should be doing the same thing here - just not forcing people to take the shot. There are several companies that are far enough along in their trials that I would GLADLY take their vaccines.  What other people do is up to them, but I'd get vaccinated with 3 different vaccines, if I could.  Trump needs to make the vaccines available to those who want it.

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23 minutes ago, Skans said:

That is very far from the truth. 

 

I am living in China now. It's perfectly stable. I can go for long walks down the street in the middle of the night without a care in the world. There's no civil unrest here. There's no election turmoil. I don't have to worry about someone pulling out a gun and shooting me. Nobody I talk to has anything but the warmest feelings for the Chinese government. They are PROUD of how their country has handled the pandemic.

 

You haven't got a clue what you're talking about. The Chinese people aren't force-fed the same 'don't fuck with me' bullshit attitude from birth that Americans are, and they aren't as demanding about what they should get. They have all the hope in the world for the future. If you had ever set foot in the country, you might know this.

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10 minutes ago, Toldya said:

 

I am living in China now. It's perfectly stable. I can go for long walks down the street in the middle of the night without a care in the world. There's no civil unrest here. There's no election turmoil. I don't have to worry about someone pulling out a gun and shooting me. Nobody I talk to has anything but the warmest feelings for the Chinese government. They are PROUD of how their country has handled the pandemic.

 

You haven't got a clue what you're talking about. The Chinese people aren't force-fed the same 'don't fuck with me' bullshit attitude from birth that Americans are, and they aren't as demanding about what they should get. They have all the hope in the world for the future. If you had ever set foot in the country, you might know this.

So, are you a Chinese national?

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