Jump to content

Shock analysis: Trump has 91% chance of winning


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 73
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Where are all the snowflakes???   Please Donald make them cry for four more years.   LOL     

I wouldn't discount his methodology's accuracy. Goddam, at least the many titted empress was coherent.  When out of his basement, braindead biden is incapable of remembering where he is or what office

JULY 31, 2020   The media thinks President Donald Trump is on the ropes in his bid for reelection, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading in every poll. But one ex

2 hours ago, SpyCar said:

 

I'm voting FOR Biden. He is outstanding and was my pick for 2020 from the beginning.

 

Joe Biden is well loved and he's going to trounce the incompetent asshole who currently resides in the White House .

 

Bill

 

Nothing says you're a brain dead moron more than voting for a brain dead moron.

 

 

  • Thumb up 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

3 hours ago, XavierOnassis said:

. Unemployment at an all time high

 

I wonder if the kung flu has anything to do with that ?

 

3 hours ago, XavierOnassis said:

Have we become greater since Trump was(s)elected? I see zero evidence of that.

 

 

JustOneMinute: Begun They Have, The Prog Wars

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, RebelGator said:

 

Nothing says you're a brain dead moron more than voting for a brain dead moron.

 

 


Joe didn’t have to take an Alzheimer’s test and brag that he did “amazing” because He could remember 5words 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, SpyCar said:

 

I'm voting FOR Biden.

No surprise. You voted for Clinton too.

3 hours ago, SpyCar said:

He is outstanding and was my pick for 2020 from the beginning.

That's true.

3 hours ago, SpyCar said:

Joe Biden is well loved

Mmmm. No. If he was well loved he would have done better in the primaries. 

3 hours ago, SpyCar said:

and he's going to trounce the incompetent asshole who currently resides in the White House .

 

Bill

This seems doubtful Bill. In fact, I doubt he will even debate. Do you think he will?

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/31/2020 at 3:50 PM, Buffalo said:

The media thinks President Donald Trump is on the ropes in his bid for reelection, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading in every poll.

 

Are you talking about the satanic fake news ultraliberal agenda driven media and their pet parrot bloggers ?

 

The only people who believe them is ultraliberals that are delusional, detached and in denial.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kfools said:

No surprise. You voted for Clinton too.

 

 

You bet your ass I did. Very proud of that vote. Had she won we'd be in a far better position today.

 

If he was well loved he would have done better in the primaries. 

 

He prevailed in a big field and all his rivals endorsed him. Liberal Democrats, independents, and many sane Republicans who wonder what the fuck happened to their party will rally to Biden. He's a good man.

 

This seems doubtful Bill. In fact, I doubt he will even debate. Do you think he will?

 

Of course he will. That's if Trump doesn't chicken out. Biden will destroy him in the debates. 

 

Bill

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Isalexi said:

Her mask... being a tough woman 


I don’t see her as particularly tough. Tough  would be gracious in losing. Instead, she’s tried to keep the Russian lie alive. She paid  enough for it, sure, but still no excuse. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, SpyCar said:

 

 

You bet your ass I did. Very proud of that vote. Had she won we'd be in a far better position today.

 

 

 

 

He prevailed in a big field and all his rivals endorsed him. Liberal Democrats, independents, and many sane Republicans who wonder what the fuck happened to their party will rally to Biden. He's a good man.

 

 

 

 

Of course he will. That's if Trump doesn't chicken out. Biden will destroy him in the debates. 

 

Bill

The many titted empress and her child fucking slick willie are irrelevant and should in prison for their perversion and corruption.

 

Trump prevailed in a big field of more qualified candidates. I mean, buttplug, beto, wanna be messkin/gun confiscator, orouruke, lyawatha...come on.  And braindead biden is one of the most corrupt deep state career politicains EVER. 

 

LOL!!! IF braindead biden's handlers allow him to debate Trump, Trump will destroy him in 2 minutes. LOL!!!  Your not paying attention to braindead's gaffes and blunders.

Trumop does not chicken out. If anything braindead's handlers will make up some lame excuse not to have any debates. Keeping braindead in his basement and not letting him face anything not scripted has been the strategy so far. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/31/2020 at 6:38 PM, Scout said:

 

:D  A broken clock is right twice a day.

 

I think Republicans should dig up lots more unknown statisticians to say what they want to hear.

Just like Trump's appraised doctor who believes in aliens and demon semen.  

The only thing the neo cons have now is conspiracy theories and hateful rhetoric.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Isalexi said:


Joe didn’t have to take an Alzheimer’s test and brag that he did “amazing” because He could remember 5words 

Biden cant remember 5 words. Or numbers, cause he is 30333033 Corona Joe, I doubt he even remembers funding the Wuhan lab to create his virus.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/31/2020 at 2:50 PM, Buffalo said:

trumpWH-280x175.jpg

 

JULY 31, 2020

 

The media thinks President Donald Trump is on the ropes in his bid for reelection, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading in every poll.

But one expert says Trump has ’em just where he wants ’em.

 

Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth, who correctly predicted Trump’s shocking 2016 victory, is already calling 2020.

 

And he’s calling it for Trump.

 

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” he told the Mediaite website.

 

His unique Primary Model uses data from primaries to estimate levels of enthusiasm for a candidate.

 

He created it in 1996, and the model has since called five of six elections correctly (he missed with George W. Bush in 2000). He also took data from every election since the 1912 introduction of the primary system to see how it would’ve done – and it missed just one other time, incorrectly predicting Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy in 1960.

 

“This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced,” he boasted to Mediaite.

 

Norpoth told the website that not only will Trump win the election, but he’ll do it with an even bigger margin in the Electoral College.

 

In 2016, the traditionally blue “rust belt” states turned red to give Trump his margin of victory in the Electoral College, 304-227 over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

 

But Norpoth says Trump will pick off some more Democratic states, this time beating Biden by 362-176.

 

That’s on par with former President Barack Obama’s 2008 victory over then-Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz), 365-173.

 

That would seem to fly in the face of the latest polls, which show Biden with a healthy lead over Trump both nationally and in multiple key swing states.

 

Biden has a lead of 8.3 percentage points nationally in the latest polling averages from both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, and The Economist gives Biden a 99 percent chance of winning the popular vote and 91 percent odds of taking the Electoral College.

 

Trump says his own internal numbers show he’s actually ahead – something he said in 2016, which was dismissed as bluster at the time but turned out to be correct.

 

Trump campaign spokesperson Hogan Gidley also dismissed the public polls.

 

“A lot of those polls are junk,” he said on Fox News this week, saying many of them – including those on Fox News – are “skewed to the left.”

 

And there are already signs that the polls are starting to swing back in the president’s favor.

 

One poll from CNBC and Change Research showed Trump quickly gaining ground across the key states he needs to win reelection.

 

In Pennsylvania, for example, Biden had an eight-point lead just weeks ago in that same poll… but is ahead by just two points now. In Florida, Biden’s seven-point lead is down to just three.

 

The poll also shows tightening races in North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

 

But Norpoth says don’t pay too much attention to those, no matter who’s up or down.

 

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”

 

He says he was able to correctly call the 2016 election precisely because he ignored the polls.

 

“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he recalled.

 

So whatever happened that was missed by the polls in 2016 could be about to happen again – and Trump could stun the media and the “experts” one more time.

 

— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert, and is the author of “America’s Final Warning.”

Uhhhh...bon jour?

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/2/2020 at 12:08 PM, 123urout said:

Biden cant remember 5 words. Or numbers, cause he is 30333033 Corona Joe, I doubt he even remembers funding the Wuhan lab to create his virus.


was that before he killed puppies ..I hope you’re joking

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/1/2020 at 9:19 PM, RebelGator said:

 

Nothing says you're a brain dead moron more than voting for a brain dead moron.

 

 

Nothing says you are really dumb if you vote for somebody who screws you and  you say thank you.He talks to his face like they are stupid

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Isalexi said:

Nothing says you are really dumb if you vote for somebody who screws you and  you say thank you.He talks to his face like they are stupid

Wow so you are not voting for biden...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...