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Shock analysis: Trump has 91% chance of winning

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trumpWH-280x175.jpg

 

JULY 31, 2020

 

The media thinks President Donald Trump is on the ropes in his bid for reelection, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading in every poll.

But one expert says Trump has ’em just where he wants ’em.

 

Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth, who correctly predicted Trump’s shocking 2016 victory, is already calling 2020.

 

And he’s calling it for Trump.

 

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” he told the Mediaite website.

 

His unique Primary Model uses data from primaries to estimate levels of enthusiasm for a candidate.

 

He created it in 1996, and the model has since called five of six elections correctly (he missed with George W. Bush in 2000). He also took data from every election since the 1912 introduction of the primary system to see how it would’ve done – and it missed just one other time, incorrectly predicting Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy in 1960.

 

“This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced,” he boasted to Mediaite.

 

Norpoth told the website that not only will Trump win the election, but he’ll do it with an even bigger margin in the Electoral College.

 

In 2016, the traditionally blue “rust belt” states turned red to give Trump his margin of victory in the Electoral College, 304-227 over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

 

But Norpoth says Trump will pick off some more Democratic states, this time beating Biden by 362-176.

 

That’s on par with former President Barack Obama’s 2008 victory over then-Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz), 365-173.

 

That would seem to fly in the face of the latest polls, which show Biden with a healthy lead over Trump both nationally and in multiple key swing states.

 

Biden has a lead of 8.3 percentage points nationally in the latest polling averages from both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, and The Economist gives Biden a 99 percent chance of winning the popular vote and 91 percent odds of taking the Electoral College.

 

Trump says his own internal numbers show he’s actually ahead – something he said in 2016, which was dismissed as bluster at the time but turned out to be correct.

 

Trump campaign spokesperson Hogan Gidley also dismissed the public polls.

 

“A lot of those polls are junk,” he said on Fox News this week, saying many of them – including those on Fox News – are “skewed to the left.”

 

And there are already signs that the polls are starting to swing back in the president’s favor.

 

One poll from CNBC and Change Research showed Trump quickly gaining ground across the key states he needs to win reelection.

 

In Pennsylvania, for example, Biden had an eight-point lead just weeks ago in that same poll… but is ahead by just two points now. In Florida, Biden’s seven-point lead is down to just three.

 

The poll also shows tightening races in North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

 

But Norpoth says don’t pay too much attention to those, no matter who’s up or down.

 

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”

 

He says he was able to correctly call the 2016 election precisely because he ignored the polls.

 

“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he recalled.

 

So whatever happened that was missed by the polls in 2016 could be about to happen again – and Trump could stun the media and the “experts” one more time.

 

— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert, and is the author of “America’s Final Warning.”

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8 minutes ago, Buffalo said:

trumpWH-280x175.jpg

 

JULY 31, 2020

 

The media thinks President Donald Trump is on the ropes in his bid for reelection, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading in every poll.

But one expert says Trump has ’em just where he wants ’em.

 

Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth, who correctly predicted Trump’s shocking 2016 victory, is already calling 2020.

 

And he’s calling it for Trump.

 

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” he told the Mediaite website.

 

His unique Primary Model uses data from primaries to estimate levels of enthusiasm for a candidate.

 

He created it in 1996, and the model has since called five of six elections correctly (he missed with George W. Bush in 2000). He also took data from every election since the 1912 introduction of the primary system to see how it would’ve done – and it missed just one other time, incorrectly predicting Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy in 1960.

 

“This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced,” he boasted to Mediaite.

 

Norpoth told the website that not only will Trump win the election, but he’ll do it with an even bigger margin in the Electoral College.

 

In 2016, the traditionally blue “rust belt” states turned red to give Trump his margin of victory in the Electoral College, 304-227 over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

 

But Norpoth says Trump will pick off some more Democratic states, this time beating Biden by 362-176.

 

That’s on par with former President Barack Obama’s 2008 victory over then-Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz), 365-173.

 

That would seem to fly in the face of the latest polls, which show Biden with a healthy lead over Trump both nationally and in multiple key swing states.

 

Biden has a lead of 8.3 percentage points nationally in the latest polling averages from both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, and The Economist gives Biden a 99 percent chance of winning the popular vote and 91 percent odds of taking the Electoral College.

 

Trump says his own internal numbers show he’s actually ahead – something he said in 2016, which was dismissed as bluster at the time but turned out to be correct.

 

Trump campaign spokesperson Hogan Gidley also dismissed the public polls.

 

“A lot of those polls are junk,” he said on Fox News this week, saying many of them – including those on Fox News – are “skewed to the left.”

 

And there are already signs that the polls are starting to swing back in the president’s favor.

 

One poll from CNBC and Change Research showed Trump quickly gaining ground across the key states he needs to win reelection.

 

In Pennsylvania, for example, Biden had an eight-point lead just weeks ago in that same poll… but is ahead by just two points now. In Florida, Biden’s seven-point lead is down to just three.

 

The poll also shows tightening races in North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

 

But Norpoth says don’t pay too much attention to those, no matter who’s up or down.

 

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”

 

He says he was able to correctly call the 2016 election precisely because he ignored the polls.

 

“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he recalled.

 

So whatever happened that was missed by the polls in 2016 could be about to happen again – and Trump could stun the media and the “experts” one more time.

 

— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert, and is the author of “America’s Final Warning.”

Where are all the snowflakes???

 

Please Donald make them cry for four more years.

 

LOL 

 

 

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The professor's mistake is that Hillary is not running. Votes count whether the voters are enthusiastic or not.

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11 minutes ago, slideman said:

The professor's mistake is that Hillary is not running. Votes count whether the voters are enthusiastic or not.

I wouldn't discount his methodology's accuracy. Goddam, at least the many titted empress was coherent.  When out of his basement, braindead biden is incapable of remembering where he is or what office he is running for.  

Give the voters a little credit for being smart enough to see that braindead biden would merely be a figurehead for the dim-0-crap elite and their deep state apparatchiks to finally usher in full blown socialism. That is why Trump is so hated...he does not/will not follow the scripted narrative of his would be puppet masters.  Those in his administration that have tried, ie Bolton, are quickly disposed of. LOL!!!

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11 minutes ago, slideman said:

The professor's mistake is that Hillary is not running. Votes count whether the voters are enthusiastic or not.

That's obviously a LIE, DUMBASS. LESS PEOPLE VOTE WHEN THEY AREN'T ENTHUSED ABOUT THIER CANDIDATE... 😆 God DAMN you need to slow down on that pot.....

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2 hours ago, slideman said:

The professor's mistake is that Hillary is not running. Votes count whether the voters are enthusiastic or not.

 

What a shame that Bernie's cult screwed the country so badly. I'll never forgive those Trump-enabling fuck-wads.

 

Bill

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1 hour ago, SpyCar said:

 

What a shame that Bernie's cult screwed the country so badly. I'll never forgive those Trump-enabling fuck-wads.

 

Bill

You are a total a****** and no Democrat

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3 hours ago, Buffalo said:

JULY 31, 2020

 

The media thinks President Donald Trump is on the ropes in his bid for reelection, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading in every poll.

But one expert says Trump has ’em just where he wants ’em.

 

Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth, who correctly predicted Trump’s shocking 2016 victory, is already calling 2020.

 

:D  A broken clock is right twice a day.

 

I think Republicans should dig up lots more unknown statisticians to say what they want to hear.

Just like Trump's appraised doctor who believes in aliens and demon semen.  

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1 minute ago, slideman said:

You are a total a****** and no Democrat

 

Yet I voted for the Democratic candidate--as I have done in every election since I got the franchise--while the Bernie cult actively enabled the Trump win.

 

You are out of your fucking mind. Blind to the truth. What makes you better than the truth-denying Trump cultists?

 

Bill

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2 minutes ago, SpyCar said:

 

Yet I voted for the Democratic candidate--as I have done in every election since I got the franchise--while the Bernie cult actively enabled the Trump win.

 

You are out of your fucking mind. Blind to the truth. What makes you better than the truth-denying Trump cultists?

 

Bill

So I voted for Hillary too though it was difficult after she cheated in the primary

If you had any sense it would occur to you it is time to put differences aside we need every vote but you are a f****** a******

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Norpoth commits two huge errors that any first-year grad student would've picked up instantly. The first is that he ignores trends in American politics that have come to define the nation at crucial moments in its history. Here, it's obvious Norpoth is out of his depth. I'll explain.  The progressivism of the early twentieth century led to the rise of Teddy Roosevelt which then led to the election of Howard Taft as a check. The interventionism of Woodrow Wilson eventually led to a repudiation of the League of Nations, a growing isolationism and the roaring twenties. FDR's election was the natural result of laissez-faire gone amuck. Post World War II America was fat, dumb and happy, but for eleven percent of the population, it was anything but happy. The Great Society of LBJ was supposed to fix with that, but instead got us Nixon's Southern Strategy. Jimmy Carter was the antidote to Nixon's, and by extension Ford's, corruption. Reagan's ascendancy ushered in the beginning of a burgeoning anti-government movement that still exists to this day. Clinton's centrism rubbed progressives the wrong way and that led Bush II. His incompetence eventually led to Obama's two landslide wins. And that brings us to the white resentment that fueled Trump's win. A sociology major could figure this out in two seconds.  The second error is even more egregious. Even allowing for political trends, the simple and undeniable truth is that over the last hundred or so years the majority of nominees who won the presidency were simply better than the opponents they ran against. In fact, of the 27 presidential elections that Norpoth's model looked at, only a half dozen or so were close; the rest were landslides. Any half-way decent pollster could've predicted them; in fact, most did; the obvious exceptions being Truman over Dewey in '48, which took everybody by surprise, and Kennedy over Nixon in '60, which even Norpoth's own model missed.  Look, I'm not saying Trump can't win. He did it once, he's certainly capable of doing it again. As they say in the sports world, that's why they play the games. But giving him a 91 percent chance of winning based on a lack of tough primary or some rule that incumbents automatically win reelection is shoddy science, and it ignores the preponderance of evidence which shows that this president is immensely unpopular. The polling for Trump is consistent with other first-term presidents like Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush, both of whom failed to win a second term. Carter and Bush were polling at 31 and 38 percent respectively at this point in their presidencies. Trump currently stands at 38 percent. All three polls were taken from Gallup, the only polling firm that can go back that far.  The fact is that no president in the modern era has been so consistently under water for this long and been reelected. Even Gerald Ford, who was polling at 45 percent going into the summer of 1976, still ended up losing, so even if Trump manages to get his approval up into the mid-40s, that's still no guarantee he will win. What's particularly striking about the Ford analogy is that Ford was dogged throughout his brief stint in the White House by his connection to his predecessor, Nixon, whom he unwisely pardoned. Well, FYI, Trump is Nixon on steroids.  The bottom line is this: the Primary Model, far from being a silver bullet when it comes to predicting outcomes, is simply a reinvention of the same wheel pollsters have been utilizing for quite some time to make their predictions. What Helmut Norpoth is hoping you won't notice are the extra spokes he added to make the wheel look more impressive than it really is.

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8 minutes ago, slideman said:

So I voted for Hillary too though it was difficult after she cheated in the primary

If you had any sense it would occur to you it is time to put differences aside we need every vote but you are a f****** a******

 

LOL. Still spinning the cultist BS?

 

Your cult's lies cost the Democrats the election. Bernie lost the primary process by 4 million votes, but he's as narcissistic as Donald J Trump.

 

You were fucking quiet when we needed every vote the last time. But I'm the "asshole"? LOL.

 

Keep deluding yourself over your cults culpability in this disaster. Trump is on you.

 

Liberal Democrats will never forget what you loons did in 2016. 

 

Bill

 

 

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7 minutes ago, SpyCar said:

 

LOL. Still spinning the cultist BS?

 

Your cult's lies cost the Democrats the election. Bernie lost the primary process by 4 million votes, but he's as narcissistic as Donald J Trump.

 

You were fucking quiet when we needed every vote the last time. But I'm the "asshole"? LOL.

 

Keep deluding yourself over your cults culpability in this disaster. Trump is on you.

 

Liberal Democrats will never forget what you loons did in 2016. 

 

Bill

 

 

You need thier votes though.

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4 hours ago, slideman said:

The professor's mistake is that Hillary is not running. Votes count whether the voters are enthusiastic or not.

Actually that's what makes his model likely accurate.

 

He is taking the vote counts from the primary for Biden. 

 

He didn't do so hot.

 

I have been saying for a long time internal polling isn't going well for Dems. Biden is possibly a worse candidate than Clinton and when he decides not to debate he will be branded a coward.

.

I am pretty confident Trump will win this one.

 

Probably no other Republican after him for fifty years. ..but Trump's got this one.

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2 minutes ago, SpyCar said:

 

Needed them in 2016. Where were they?

 

Bill

Shall we rinse and repeat then?

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16 minutes ago, kfools said:

Shall we rinse and repeat then?

 

I think they learned their lessons. Sort of.

 

Anyway, their cult leader is declining to engage in acts of sabotage this time.

 

Bill

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1 hour ago, SpyCar said:

 

I think they learned their lessons. Sort of.

 

Anyway, their cult leader is declining to engage in acts of sabotage this time.

 

Bill

You mean Sanders?

 

Learned thier lesson? I have yet to see you change the mind of a single Sanders supporter.

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1 hour ago, kfools said:

You mean Sanders?

 

Learned thier lesson? I have yet to see you change the mind of a single Sanders supporter.

 

Yeah, they clearly don't listen to me, but they do follow their cult leader (in the main).

 

Sort of like herding cats. LOL.

 

Bill

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11 hours ago, Scout said:

 

:D  A broken clock is right twice a day.

 

I think Republicans should dig up lots more unknown statisticians to say what they want to hear.

Just like Trump's appraised doctor who believes in aliens and demon semen.  

A broken clock has been extremely more right than any Demorat pollster has ever been,or any Demorat for that matter.You retards are so ignorant you get it wrong every singly time. Well now you retards can at least have a goal,and that is to try to get as good as a broken clock.

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15 hours ago, Scout said:

 

:D  A broken clock is right twice a day.

 

I think Republicans should dig up lots more unknown statisticians to say what they want to hear.

Just like Trump's appraised doctor who believes in aliens and demon semen.  

😆 Lol!!   Maybe if we all wear alluminum foils hats we can beat Covid also.

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