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I have a friend who hates Trump as much as most of the country, but wants to protect himself from disappointment by constantly saying Trump will win again, despite any evidence to the contrary. It seems that he is trying to protect himself psychologically. He argues that I am a dreamer because for example I was certain Mueller would bring Trump down. He argues that many people and circumstances have proven to be unable to topple Trump so it's naive to think he will ever lose. This is of course garbage, but I'm wondering how some of you more insightful people would respond to someone with this attitude. I'm sure some of you know people like this.

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Honestly, I'm not convinced he'll lose again either. November is a long way off and last year everyone was just so beaten down by the horrible campaigns, last minute surprises, scandals and endless sensationalism that almost everyone was pretty much in a state of psychosis. It was a weird feeling on election day-- people were so disgusted by it all or so confident Hillary would win that it all just came together and ended in disaster.

 

The only difference this time is that Trump actually won and he isn't a joke anymore... and his derangement is much darker. On the other hand, I really think it's getting harder for people to make excuses for him, and his insanity is becoming so transparent that it's impossible for most people to deny... which is both scary and a positive thing for Biden. Biden isn't an exciting candidate, but I think he definitely makes people feel safer and calmer than Trump does, which is probably what the majority want right now after four years of endless madness.

 

Overall though, I really don't think it matters how he deals with the crushing dread of four more years... as long as he votes for Biden in November.

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3 hours ago, progressivecitizen said:

I have a friend who hates Trump as much as most of the country, but wants to protect himself from disappointment by constantly saying Trump will win again, despite any evidence to the contrary. It seems that he is trying to protect himself psychologically. He argues that I am a dreamer because for example I was certain Mueller would bring Trump down. He argues that many people and circumstances have proven to be unable to topple Trump so it's naive to think he will ever lose. This is of course garbage, but I'm wondering how some of you more insightful people would respond to someone with this attitude. I'm sure some of you know people like this.

 

Your friend is right to fear another term by this con-artist and madman.  We all do.  I myself never thought Mueller would be able to bring Trump down.  And the fact that Trump has routinely been able to get away with the most hateful behavior and flaunting the law, is very discouraging.  But that doesn't mean that the weight of his despicable  deeds and criminality won't continue to build enough to finally topple him.  There are signs this is starting to happen.  The pandemic has highlighted Trump's callousness and indifference toward ordinary Americans as his behavior continues to grow more coarse and extreme.

 

3 hours ago, Toldya said:

Overall though, I really don't think it matters how he deals with the crushing dread of four more years... as long as he votes for Biden in November.

 

Exactly.  As long as his paralysis doesn't extend to the voting booth, he will have done his part.

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But neither of you answered my question. My friend is copping out by just assuming the worst so he doesn’t have to be hopeful and then potentially disappointed. This is a bad faith position to take and obnoxious to boot. What position can be taken to kick his ass straight?

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9 hours ago, progressivecitizen said:

I have a friend who hates Trump as much as most of the country, but wants to protect himself from disappointment by constantly saying Trump will win again, despite any evidence to the contrary. It seems that he is trying to protect himself psychologically. He argues that I am a dreamer because for example I was certain Mueller would bring Trump down. He argues that many people and circumstances have proven to be unable to topple Trump so it's naive to think he will ever lose. This is of course garbage, but I'm wondering how some of you more insightful people would respond to someone with this attitude. I'm sure some of you know people like this.

 

I can see where your friend is coming from as for the past 3 1/2 years Trump has gotten away with so much stuff it's not even funny. 

 

But your have to instill optimism within your friend as we do have somewhat of a chance in November. 

 

Trump has really put himself into a bad situation with his whole COVID-19 response.

 

So if I had any advice I would say try to sway your friends opinion of the Democrats chances in November. 

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21 hours ago, progressivecitizen said:

I have a friend who hates Trump as much as most of the country, but wants to protect himself from disappointment by constantly saying Trump will win again, despite any evidence to the contrary. It seems that he is trying to protect himself psychologically. He argues that I am a dreamer because for example I was certain Mueller would bring Trump down. He argues that many people and circumstances have proven to be unable to topple Trump so it's naive to think he will ever lose. This is of course garbage, but I'm wondering how some of you more insightful people would respond to someone with this attitude. I'm sure some of you know people like this.

 

Just remind him that Trump lost 100,000 as of yesterday and will lose 100,000 more over the next two months.  With the economy in the tank and the bodies piling up, he will get worse at being himself and assigning blame to others.  The people are buying and Trump's poll number are going right down the toilet.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/499733-trump-job-approval-falls-to-2-year-low-in-rasmussen-poll

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/20/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-11-points-quinnipiac-poll/5230880002/

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-finds-himself-playing-campaign-defense-core-elements-his-base-n1215576

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It doesn’t matter whether your friend is optimistic or pessimistic, all that matters is that your friend votes and encourages those in your friend’s circle of influence to do the same.

 

Bill

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He will vote and vote Democratic. Anyway we’re in a blue state, so it doesn’t matter. The issue is just that my friend is being a wuss and I want to checkmate him. 
I could send him hopeful statistics, but he will make up a b.s. excuse. I guess I could undermine his argument by emphasizing state politics. 

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1 hour ago, progressivecitizen said:

He will vote and vote Democratic. Anyway we’re in a blue state, so it doesn’t matter. The issue is just that my friend is being a wuss and I want to checkmate him. 
I could send him hopeful statistics, but he will make up a b.s. excuse. I guess I could undermine his argument by emphasizing state politics. 

 

Why do you feel the need to "checkmate" your friend? What does it serve?

 

At his juncture it isn't clear how this election will go. It could be a very tight race. If we fail to take WI, we'd need to flip one or more red states. 

 

It could happen that we have a blow-out in our favor, but that is hardly guaranteed. The five plus months ahead are going to be critical.

 

All we can do is vote and encourage others to vote. Prognostications and predictions are irrelevant at this juncture.

 

Bill

 

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29 minutes ago, SpyCar said:

 

Why do you feel the need to "checkmate" your friend? What does it serve?

 

At his juncture it isn't clear how this election will go. It could be a very tight race. If we fail to take WI, we'd need to flip one or more red states. 

 

It could happen that we have a blow-out in our favor, but that is hardly guaranteed. The five plus months ahead are going to be critical.

 

All we can do is vote and encourage others to vote. Prognostications and predictions are irrelevant at this juncture.

 

Bill

 

It serves to shut up the stupidity coming out of his mouth- lol.

I completely disagree. It will be a landslide. Biden is winning in every state that matters. There's nothing that can be tight and no red states that need to be flipped. The redneck wastelands like Kentucky (where you don't even hear talk about throwing out McConnell) can be left to rot- they won't matter.

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22 minutes ago, progressivecitizen said:

It serves to shut up the stupidity coming out of his mouth- lol.

I completely disagree. It will be a landslide. Biden is winning in every state that matters. There's nothing that can be tight and no red states that need to be flipped. The redneck wastelands like Kentucky (where you don't even hear talk about throwing out McConnell) can be left to rot- they won't matter.

 

I applaud your optimism, but the vote is way off and things are far less certain than you make out, as I'm analyzing the situation. 

 

No one would be more thrilled to see a landslide where Moscow Mitch gets the boot and we have a big win in the EC. But the last poll I saw has Trump up by 16 in Kentucky.

 

Wisconsin is razor thin. So it defies reality to claim "nothing that can be tight and no red states that need to be flipped." If we lose WI we'd have to flip a traditionally red state (and hold all the states HRC won in 2016) to win.

 

We need to remain reality-based about this election. 

 

Bill

 

 

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33 minutes ago, progressivecitizen said:

It serves to shut up the stupidity coming out of his mouth- lol.

I completely disagree. It will be a landslide. Biden is winning in every state that matters. There's nothing that can be tight and no red states that need to be flipped. The redneck wastelands like Kentucky (where you don't even hear talk about throwing out McConnell) can be left to rot- they won't matter.

 

We Democrats cannot afford the same complacency, as in 2016, when most considered Hillary a shoo-in ...  And most of the polls in 2016 showed her coasting to victory.   Not that I wouldn't  be thrilled should Biden win in a landslide.  But at this point, it seems unlikely.  Once the two conventions are over, a huge war is looming between mudslinging, dirty tricks, disinformation and conspiracy theories VS fact based reality and pragmatism.  None of us should take victory for granted.

 

For my part, I'm writing letters and I've contributed more to Democratic causes than ever before in my life.  We all need to get involved if this contest is to be won, enabling sanity to once again prevail in America.  Everything depends on it.

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I hear you about not getting complacent, but if Biden loses it'll be not because of the redneck base but because idiots who would have voted blue didn't turn up to vote. But what's this about Wisconsin being razor-thin? The polls all show Biden winning in every state that matters.

 

What do you call this? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

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On 5/27/2020 at 5:53 PM, progressivecitizen said:

But neither of you answered my question. My friend is copping out by just assuming the worst so he doesn’t have to be hopeful and then potentially disappointed. This is a bad faith position to take and obnoxious to boot. What position can be taken to kick his ass straight?

A Trump defeat and strong majorities in both houses will do more than strong words from a friend it sounds like.

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For what it's worth, the last "rated" poll in WI, which was on May 12 by Marquette (A/B) was Biden 46% Trump 43.The current WI RCP average is Biden +2.7.

 

I'd call that "razor thin."

 

Bill

 

 

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1 hour ago, SpyCar said:

For what it's worth, the last "rated" poll in WI, which was on May 12 by Marquette (A/B) was Biden 46% Trump 43.The current WI RCP average is Biden +2.7.

 

I'd call that "razor thin."

 

Bill

 

 

Trump and Republicans are going to have to pour a ton of money into Arizona the numbers are shifting hard in that state towards Democrats. All the talk about people leaving California is true their going to Arizona like I will in about 6 years and turn that state deep blue.

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14 minutes ago, fourputt said:

Trump and Republicans are going to have to pour a ton of money into Arizona the numbers are shifting hard in that state towards Democrats. All the talk about people leaving California is true their going to Arizona like I will in about 6 years and turn that state deep blue.

 

I'm hoping for a Senate pick up in AZ and a win for Biden there.

 

My sense is the AZ Republicans are old school, don't like Trump, don't forgive him for how he treated John McCain, and will not vote for Trump in sufficient numbers for Trump to win. My hope, anyway.

 

Bill

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, SpyCar said:

 

I'm hoping for a Senate pick up in AZ and a win for Biden there.

 

My sense is the AZ Republicans are old school, don't like Trump, don't forgive him for how he treated John McCain, and will not vote for Trump in sufficient numbers for Trump to win. My hope, anyway.

 

Bill

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with this.

 

Many people in Arizona are not very fond of Trump. 

 

Arizona is going to flip blue in the next few election cycles.

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On 5/29/2020 at 3:10 AM, progressivecitizen said:

The other point of his reasoning is that polls were wrong in 2016 and that he trusts patterns of behavior more (i.e. the stupid people in this country and their bad decisions).

 

Honestly, I know this isn't scientific or even necessarily realistic, but going with my gut, overall I think the majority will ultimately realize that they just feel better about Biden. Even if he doesn't have a specific vision for the country, or isn't bringing anything new to the table, I think at this point him just being a decent person with an ethical code will be enough for them to prefer him to Trump. He's going to spank Trump hard, and the giant orange baby is going to burst into tears.

 

Even though I never once considered voting for Trump in 2016, I wasn't big on Hillary and mostly just assumed she would win because she was the logical choice... but in some dark corner of my brain, I also thought it would be really exciting if Trump won, because he was actually something new. Unlike Hillary he was promising radical changes at a time when everyone was tired of the same status quo we've had basically since Bill Clinton. Trump promised universal health care, FFS.

 

Hillary had basically stolen the nomination in the eyes of a lot of people and on top of the scandals and the reminder of how Bill basically sold the Dems out and pushed the whole thing to the right... it wasn't the kind of thing that inspired anyone. I don't think people even wanted 4 more years of Obama... they wanted someone who would take it further, not someone who would move to the right again. The whole 'first woman president' thing wasn't the same as Obama's 'first black president thing' either... Obama never actually used his race as an election strategy, while HIllary milked the woman thing in a condescending way with the whole 'I'm with her' thing-- like that was the whole point. She also lacked a clear, inspiring message. We all knew she was less progressive and more hawkish than Obama, and she just wasn't likable.

 

Biden isn't that. He might not be the progressive champion we want, and he might not be fresh or new, but he's still relatable and definitely someone I'd like to have a beer with, because I know he would treat me with respect... I think that comes across whenever he speaks too. This doesn't happen with Trump-- he doesn't even seem like the kind of person who would HAVE friends.

 

Remember when people thought Trump was going to change when he became president? He was going to stop with the ugly campaigning and the job would make him a better person? Well now we know that didn't happen. He was an embarrassment to the world-- selfish, cruel, stupid, obnoxious... but people still tolerated the endless drama because they thought he was making the economy better.

 

The difference today is that everything is in chaos, people feel bad, Trump is showing terrible leadership skills, and the economy is in the toilet. Trump STILL wants to pretend he's the outsider who is going to drain the swamp and bring a new vision to the US-- and while this could have been true in 2016, everyone knows that it's not true this time. He's trying to do the same thing he did in 2016 against Hillary, but this time everyone knows it's bullshit... it won't work. He doesn't have any magic solutions for everyone's problems this time, and what's more he totally fucked up the covid response and people know it. Even these protests are making him look bad-- they're reminding everyone of his racism. If he sends in the military and there is violence, it could easily become his Tiannamen Square moment... and if he doesn't, then the protests will also be bad for him. He has zero credibility... even if people don't completely trust the media, they don't trust Trump either, and given his well-documented fondness for cruelty and 'dominance', people will assume that if things go bad, it will be because he wanted Waco/Koresh turned up to 11... and they will be furious. 

 

Biden is already setting himself as the anti-Trump-- the adult in the room who is willing to listen to the experts, put others before himself, be part of a team instead of the center of attention, lead by example and give credit where credit is due, praising peace and harmony and compassion and understanding... it's a smart strategy. He isn't going to be the one sending in the soldiers, tanks, drones, whatever... and I really don't think the protesters/rioters are going to go down easily.

 

There are really quite a few reasons to be optimistic about Biden's chances... even if they aren't necessarily the 'right' reasons (people should have turned on Trump long ago), they are good reasons.

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2 hours ago, Toldya said:

 

Honestly, I know this isn't scientific or even necessarily realistic, but going with my gut, overall I think the majority will ultimately realize that they just feel better about Biden. Even if he doesn't have a specific vision for the country, or isn't bringing anything new to the table, I think at this point him just being a decent person with an ethical code will be enough for them to prefer him to Trump. He's going to spank Trump hard, and the giant orange baby is going to burst into tears.

 

Even though I never once considered voting for Trump in 2016, I wasn't big on Hillary and mostly just assumed she would win because she was the logical choice... but in some dark corner of my brain, I also thought it would be really exciting if Trump won, because he was actually something new. Unlike Hillary he was promising radical changes at a time when everyone was tired of the same status quo we've had basically since Bill Clinton. Trump promised universal health care, FFS.

 

Hillary had basically stolen the nomination in the eyes of a lot of people and on top of the scandals and the reminder of how Bill basically sold the Dems out and pushed the whole thing to the right... it wasn't the kind of thing that inspired anyone. I don't think people even wanted 4 more years of Obama... they wanted someone who would take it further, not someone who would move to the right again. The whole 'first woman president' thing wasn't the same as Obama's 'first black president thing' either... Obama never actually used his race as an election strategy, while HIllary milked the woman thing in a condescending way with the whole 'I'm with her' thing-- like that was the whole point. She also lacked a clear, inspiring message. We all knew she was less progressive and more hawkish than Obama, and she just wasn't likable.

 

Biden isn't that. He might not be the progressive champion we want, and he might not be fresh or new, but he's still relatable and definitely someone I'd like to have a beer with, because I know he would treat me with respect... I think that comes across whenever he speaks too. This doesn't happen with Trump-- he doesn't even seem like the kind of person who would HAVE friends.

 

Remember when people thought Trump was going to change when he became president? He was going to stop with the ugly campaigning and the job would make him a better person? Well now we know that didn't happen. He was an embarrassment to the world-- selfish, cruel, stupid, obnoxious... but people still tolerated the endless drama because they thought he was making the economy better.

 

The difference today is that everything is in chaos, people feel bad, Trump is showing terrible leadership skills, and the economy is in the toilet. Trump STILL wants to pretend he's the outsider who is going to drain the swamp and bring a new vision to the US-- and while this could have been true in 2016, everyone knows that it's not true this time. He's trying to do the same thing he did in 2016 against Hillary, but this time everyone knows it's bullshit... it won't work. He doesn't have any magic solutions for everyone's problems this time, and what's more he totally fucked up the covid response and people know it. Even these protests are making him look bad-- they're reminding everyone of his racism. If he sends in the military and there is violence, it could easily become his Tiannamen Square moment... and if he doesn't, then the protests will also be bad for him. He has zero credibility... even if people don't completely trust the media, they don't trust Trump either, and given his well-documented fondness for cruelty and 'dominance', people will assume that if things go bad, it will be because he wanted Waco/Koresh turned up to 11... and they will be furious. 

 

Biden is already setting himself as the anti-Trump-- the adult in the room who is willing to listen to the experts, put others before himself, be part of a team instead of the center of attention, lead by example and give credit where credit is due, praising peace and harmony and compassion and understanding... it's a smart strategy. He isn't going to be the one sending in the soldiers, tanks, drones, whatever... and I really don't think the protesters/rioters are going to go down easily.

 

There are really quite a few reasons to be optimistic about Biden's chances... even if they aren't necessarily the 'right' reasons (people should have turned on Trump long ago), they are good reasons.

 

HRC did not "steal the nomination." That is a complete and utter lie.

 

BS lost the in the nominating process and was down by almost 4 million votes and 1000 delegates. Many of us consider her inspiring and know we'd be in far more able hands today without left-wing perdify. Biden is far more of a "progressive champion" than the egomanical populist anti-liberal, Bernard Sanders.

 

The Big Lie that "Bernie wuz robbed" cost us the 2016 election. Please stop spreading such mendacity. It has cost us dearly already.

 

No mas!

 

Bill

 

 

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18 hours ago, SpyCar said:

HRC did not "steal the nomination." That is a complete and utter lie.

It was a common perception among Bernie supporters.    Note @Toldya's wording in the above post:

Hillary had basically stolen the nomination in the eyes of a lot of people

THAT perception resulted in many people refusing to support Hillary (myself included). 

 

I think we need to ALL do our part in avoiding divisive rhetoric on our side of the fence.  The ship that was the 2016 election has sailed.  We need to put 2016 behind us and come together for the November election.  By fighting about the past, we're almost certain to damage the future as well.  Let's move on?    

 

18 hours ago, SpyCar said:

Bernie lost the in the nominating process and was down by almost 4 million votes and 1000 delegates. Many of us consider her inspiring and know we'd be in far more able hands today without left-wing perdify. Biden is far more of a "progressive champion" than the egomanical populist anti-liberal, Bernard Sanders.

Joe Biden is a good man but "progressive" he is not, at least not to date.  I hope the times we are in will result in bringing out Biden's inner progressive which I believe is in there.  :D  He's a good man and these are challenging times.  

 

Calling Bernie "egomanical" and a "populist anti-liberal" fits your EXACT definition of "name-calling" we've discussed in other forum policy threads.   I thought you agreed not to do that in LO?  I haven't gotten overly descriptive of my long-term dislike for Hillary Clinton solely out of respect to you.        

 

18 hours ago, SpyCar said:

The Big Lie that "Bernie wuz robbed" cost us the 2016 election. Please stop spreading such mendacity. It has cost us dearly already.

 

No mas!

 

Bill

It is a widespread opinion formed by Hillary's perceived treatment of Bernie's campaign and supporters.   It's an opinion which Clinton never bothered to address or attempt to repair once she secured the nomination.  To refer to the opinions of tens of milions of left-of-center voters as "mendacity" is more of the same.  With that rhetoric, we're divided before we even start.         

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53 minutes ago, RollingRock said:

It was a common perception among Bernie supporters.    Note @Toldya's wording in the above post.

THAT perception resulted in many people refusing to support Hillary (myself included).

 


Correct. A lot of people. Enough to swing the election to Trump. All based on a widespread false narrative that was actively spread by Our Revolution, the Sanders' campaign, and then amplified by Trumpists and the Russian Troll Farm. 

 

That this BIG LIE was widely embraced by "followers" of Sanders is precisely what cost us the election in 2016. 

 

Quote

 


I think we need to ALL do our part in avoiding divisive rhetoric on our side of the fence.  The ship that was the 2016 election has sailed.  We need to put 2016 behind us and come together for the November election.  By fighting about the past, we're almost certain to damage the future as well.  Let's move on?    

 

 

It is impossible to "move on" when the highly malicious lies are repeated over and over and over again. 

 

Either we learn the lessons of 2106 or we set ourselves up for another failure. You have never expressed contrition for your role in the debacle that put Trump in office. It is hard to "forgive" people who are not repentant.

 

Pretending what happened didn't happen is not a path forward. Embracing gaslighting and false-narratives will cause on-going damage.

 

George Santayana was right: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

 

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Joe Biden is a good man but "progressive" he is

not, at least not to date.  I hope the times we are in will result in bringing out Biden's inner progressive which I believe is in there.  :D  He's a good man and these are challenging times.  

 

 

Biden is far more progressive than Sanders (who is not a "good man").

 

Quote

Calling Bernie "egomanical" and a "populist anti-liberal" fits your EXACT definition of "name-calling" we've discussed in other forum policy threads.   I thought you agreed not to do that in LO?  I haven't gotten overly descriptive of my long-term dislike for Hillary Clinton

solely out of respect to you.   

    

 

It has to be a two-way street. When the BIG LIE gets rolled out, there will be push back.

 

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It is a widespread opinion formed by Hillary's perceived treatment of Bernie's campaign and supporters.   It's an opinion which Clinton never bothered to address or attempt to repair once she secured the nomination.  To refer to the opinions of tens of milions of left-of-center voters as "mendacity" is more of the same.  With that rhetoric, we're divided before we even start. 

  

 

Sorry, more gaslighting of the sort put out my the far-left/far-right propaganda network. Democrats bent over backward to appease Sanders. The dreadful Jill Stein-voting traitor Cornell West was put on the platform committee, for fuck's sake. Almost every platform plank Sanders asked for was adopted. "Mendacity" is a nice way of describing the full out assault on the Democratic party that was waged by "the alliance." A war based on outright lies and vengence. Political cults-of-personality are very dangerous.

 

Bill      

 

 

 

 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, SpyCar said:

Corect. A lot of people. Because it was a widespread false narrative that was actively spread by Our Revolution, the Sanders' campaign, and then amplified by Trumpists and the Russian Troll Farm. 

That's patently absurd.  Sorry, but it is.

 

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That this BIG LIE was embraced by "followers" of Sanders is what cost us the election in 2016. 

They are SUPPORTERS, not "followers."   Bernie's not Jim Jones.  Please stop with this rhetoric.   What cost us the election was the fact that not enough people in key states could bring themselves to support Hillary.  She didn't bother to campaign in several of those swing states.   Why would they vote for someone that didn't even bother to address the concerns of their state?   

 

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It is impossible to "move on" when the highly malicious lies are repeated over and over and over again. 

They aren't "lies."  They are "opinions" and "perceptions."   We need to agree to disagree - it's the only way to move forward.  

 

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Either we learn the lessons of 2106 or we set ourselves up for another failure. You have never expressed contrition for your role in the debacle that put Trump in office. It is hard to "forgive" people who are not repentant.

What put Trump in office was the fact that millions of voters simply didn't like or support Hillary Clinton.  You can't make people like a candidate they do not support.  I don't regret not voting for her, never will.  That said, 2016 is in the past.  Let's not make every thread in this subforum about the 2016 election.  We need to move forward here, not dwell on the past.    

 

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Biden is far more progressive

I disagree, but I hope like hell I'm wrong on that one.  

 

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than Sanders (who is not a "good man").

Bernie is a GREAT man; he is loved by tens of millions.  I'm well aware you don't like him.  You don't need to remind us; we know.  Some of us disagree.  Others agree with you.  Why fight about it?   

 

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It has to be a two-way street. When the BIG LIE gets rolled out, there will be push back.

There is no "big lie," Bill.  There are only perceptions......and unity OR division.  Two choices.  Which do you select?

 

 

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