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COVID-19 does not care about political affiliation, or TV ratings, and you can't solve it by voting.

Here's a very simplified analysis of the problem:.....

m20.jpg

 

I sincerely hope that our government is up to the task of containing this.

The lack of awareness of missing info, like 'how many are infected?' , and the incentive to squelch this information worries me a bit.

Then there is the availability, or shortages of materials, due to the origin, and build to order nature of supply chains, and of course the profit motive.

I hope the immediate problem is contained, but we really need to address the systemic problems with healthcare:

 

An example of a immediate problem is: The vehicle will not start.

    Why? – The battery is dead. (First why)
    Why? – The alternator is not functioning. (Second why)
    Why? – The alternator belt has broken. (Third why)
    Why? – The alternator belt was well beyond its useful service life and not replaced. (Fourth why)
    Why? – The vehicle was not maintained according to the recommended service schedule. (Fifth why, a root cause)

 

A systemic problem is a problem due to issues inherent in the overall system, rather than due to a specific, isolated factor.

To solve the systemic problem, we need to really focus on the public health, and form a Dept of Public Health.

 

 

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Far from starting a Dept of Public Health, the Trump administration has spent the past two years largely dismantling government units that were designed to protect against pandemics.

 

https://fortune.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-covid-19-cdc-budget-cuts-us-trump/

Quote

- snip -

The cuts started in 2018, as the White House focused on eliminating funding to Obama-era disease security programs. In March of that year, Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer, whose job it was to lead the U.S. response in the event of a pandemic, abruptly left the administration and his global health security team was disbanded.

That same year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was forced to slash its efforts to prevent global disease outbreak by 80% as its funding for the program began to run out. The agency, at the time, opted to focus on 10 priority countries and scale back in others, including China.

 

Also cut was the Complex Crises Fund, a $30 million emergency response pool that was at the secretary of state’s disposal to deploy disease experts and others in the event of a crisis. (The fund was created by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.)

 

Overall in 2018, Trump called for $15 billion in reduced health spending that had previously been approved, as he looked at increasing budget deficits, cutting the global disease-fighting budgets of the CDC, National Security Council (NSC), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Health and Human Services (HHS) in the process.

The effects of those cuts are being felt today. While the CDC announced plans to test people with flu-like symptoms for COVID-19, those have been delayed and only three of the country’s 100 public-health labs have been able to test for coronavirus. The administration’s request for additional funding came roughly two weeks after officials said HHS was almost out of funding for its response to the virus.

- snip -

 

 

 

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To prevent the spread of the virus in these opening stages, testing for infection and tracking are of particular importance.  "Surveillance protocols" and "Awareness of missing info" and sufficient "Reporting incentives", as shown in the OP diagram. 

 

We in the US are now behind by a few weeks.  It is necessary to find and quarantine COVID-19 victims before the disease spreads and large numbers of people begin showing up at hospitals.

 

 

Paraphrased and abridged from:

757224e8-bf97-4d12-9fbd-66e6a431038d.png

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The data is pretty clear.

 

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
 
8.0%
60-69 years old
 
3.6%
50-59 years old
 
1.3%
40-49 years old
 
0.4%
30-39 years old
 
0.2%
20-29 years old
 
0.2%
10-19 years old
 
0.2%
0-9 years old
 
no fatalities

 

 

Literally, if you're not old and compromised by some sort of respiratory illness, you're going to be fine.  How is this different than, you know..."the flu"?  I'm really not getting it.

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4 hours ago, splunch said:

The data is pretty clear.

 

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
 
8.0%
60-69 years old
 
3.6%
50-59 years old
 
1.3%
40-49 years old
 
0.4%
30-39 years old
 
0.2%
20-29 years old
 
0.2%
10-19 years old
 
0.2%
0-9 years old
 
no fatalities

 

One of the confirmed fatalities was a healthy teenager.

We don't know what we don't know.

The point is that data is missing (even in the table above), so you cannot accurately say much about anything until you test more than 0.000000000001% of the population.

Second, the concern is that there is no vaccine, (like the flu) available. So if it spreads exponentially, (and 50% of population gets exposed), then having 3-15% death rate for everyone over 60 years would be significant.

Especially if someone in your family is older.

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) just a few hours ago removed the number of people in the U.S. who have been tested for the novel coronavirus COVID-19 from its website, just hours before announcing the death toll has increased.

 

The agency also canceled a press conference without offering any reason.

 

 

Here is a screenshot of the current CDC website that details data on coronavirus, without the number of people tested listed:

cdc-removes-number-of-people-tested-for-

And here is an archived version, from just hours ago:

cdc-removes-number-of-people-tested-for-

 

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5 hours ago, splunch said:

The data is pretty clear.

 

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
 
8.0%
60-69 years old
 
3.6%
50-59 years old
 
1.3%
40-49 years old
 
0.4%
30-39 years old
 
0.2%
20-29 years old
 
0.2%
10-19 years old
 
0.2%
0-9 years old
 
no fatalities

 

 

Literally, if you're not old and compromised by some sort of respiratory illness, you're going to be fine.  How is this different than, you know..."the flu"?  I'm really not getting it.

 

The CDC estimates that in from 10/01/2019 thru 2/2/2020,

-  There have been 32 million to 45 million flu illnesses. 

-  Between 14 million and 21 million flu medical  visits. 

-  Between 310 thousand to 560 thousand flu hospitalizations

-  Between 18 thousand and 46 thousand flu deaths. 

 

This despite the widespread availability of an influenza vaccine.  And a more potent vaccination for elders, with their weaker immune systems.

 

Now add an outbreak of COVID-19 to the toll from common influenza ....   No vaccine is expected for months, at least.  Plus COVID-19 is thought to be more contagious   And it is not known if the COVID-19 virus will behave like the normal flu bug or whether an epidemic would continue, undiminished, into the warm months.

 

With the season for common flu not being over yet;  And a probable COVID-19 outbreak overlapping it, medical support could be stretched thin.  And the costs, both financial and human could be significant.

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So far, it doesn't look like this is going to be as bad as SARS was.  If everything changes and it turns out to be the plague, then I guess we're screwed anyway.  But based on what we've seen so far, it doesn't seem like we ought to be freaking out.  We'll see, of course, but there's been an awful lot of noise, and a huge amount of what seem to have been largely ineffective chicken-with-the-head-cut-off-type responses, none of which has been effective at stymieing the spread of the disease.  Lots of shots on the "news" of people wearing space suits or surgical masks with ominous headlines and a whole lot of people all but blaming Donald Trump or Mike Pence for unleashing the Plague.  Lots of images of Asians.

 

This disease has almost certainly touched FAR more people than we'll ever know, and most of them won't even get sick, let alone die.  Without knowing anything about anything, we've gone into pandemic freakout mode and I don't get it.  This looks like just more sensational bullsh!t, more clickbait "journalism" here to distract and entertain us.

 

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/containment-failed-coronavirus-spreading-america-960309/

 

Quote

So it’s just really important for people to, to prepare themselves as best they can, to minimize their own risks to themselves and their family — and to just try to approach this the way that you would a flu or a cold. I mean, I don’t remember people being this crazy during the 2009 flu pandemic. That had a much higher case fatality rate in some communities — from four up to almost 20 percent. So in that sense, this virus isn’t that different from other pandemic viruses that we’ve dealt with before. 

 

The other point is, if/when the U.S. starts to roll out massive numbers of test kits, we may learn about many thousands of cases just about overnight, so it'll seem like the number of cases has exploded and it will look like a catastrophe, even though those people have been gradually exposed, have already been carrying the virus, and most of them will not face any really serious consequences at all.

 

I feel like I'm swimming against click-bait "journalism" and in an effort to just be informed and have the information I want or need, I'm inundated by "BREAKING" and "BOMBSHELL".   I'm worn out on BOMBSHELL.  Every freaking day somebody is SPEAKING OUT and some new unsubstantiated "story" is EXPLODING.  

 

Blah.

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15 minutes ago, splunch said:

This disease has almost certainly touched FAR more people than we'll ever know

 

Yes.

 

15 minutes ago, splunch said:

and most of them won't even get sick, let alone die.

 

We don't know this yet.

 

15 minutes ago, splunch said:

feel like I'm swimming against click-bait "journalism" and in an effort to just be informed and have the information I want or need, I'm inundated by "BREAKING" and "BOMBSHELL".   I'm worn out on BOMBSHELL.  Every freaking day somebody is SPEAKING OUT and some new unsubstantiated "story" is EXPLODING.  

 

Other countries are taking COVID-19 very seriously.  Take Japan, for intance.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/02/27/editorials/covid-19-preventing-medical-system-breakdown/

 

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Just now, bludog said:

Yes.

 

We don't know this yet.

 

Other countries are taking COVID-1

Here's my problem:

 

https://www.amazon.com/EPEDEMIC-PANDEMIC-NICHOLAS-HUNTLEY-ebook/dp/B084T92TL8

 

There is little difference between that and the tone of the average "news" story about this bug.  I find myself more annoyed by the sensationalism than concerned about this virus.

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3 minutes ago, splunch said:

Here's my problem:

 

https://www.amazon.com/EPEDEMIC-PANDEMIC-NICHOLAS-HUNTLEY-ebook/dp/B084T92TL8

 

There is little difference between that and the tone of the average "news" story about this bug.  I find myself more annoyed by the sensationalism than concerned about this virus.

 

There's a big difference.

I have not seen anything remotely resembling "Could the coronavirus be the beginning of the end for the entire world?", in the mainstream media.

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Just now, bludog said:

 

There's a big difference.

I have not seen anything remotely resembling "Could the coronavirus be the beginning of the end for the entire world?", in the mainstream media.

The level of noise is high.  I cannot count the number of shots I've seen in the past 2 weeks of Asian people wearing surgical masks as ominous implications scroll across the screen.  I'm objecting to the sensationalism of it.  The fact that media outlets are capitalizing on it, turning it into a non-stop headline despite the fact that we don't know much, the data so far suggests something not very serious just as much as it suggests something very serious.  We don't know much, but people are behaving as if we do.  If millions of people have already been exposed to it that we don't even know about, because nothing happened to them, then the mortality rate could easily plunge down to less than we see with the flu.  So we'll see.

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1 hour ago, splunch said:

The level of noise is high.  I cannot count the number of shots I've seen in the past 2 weeks of Asian people wearing surgical masks as ominous implications scroll across the screen.  I'm objecting to the sensationalism of it.  The fact that media outlets are capitalizing on it, turning it into a non-stop headline despite the fact that we don't know much, the data so far suggests something not very serious just as much as it suggests something very serious.

 

True, COVID-19 is profitable grist for the media mill.  So they are playing it up, bigtime.  Some people will make sense of it all and some, not so much.  But, like you say, the true extent of its importance is unknown yet.

 

On the political side, we see MSNBC running continuous coverage, with emphasis on the incompetence of the Trump administration.  And Fox playing it down, in an effort to make the administration look prescient.

 

1 hour ago, splunch said:

If millions of people have already been exposed to it that we don't even know about, because nothing happened to them, then the mortality rate could easily plunge down to less than we see with the flu.  So we'll see.

 

In view of the fact that medical experts think coronavirus is more contagious than the common flu, this seems unlikely. 

 

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15 hours ago, bludog said:

In view of the fact that medical experts think coronavirus is more contagious than the common flu, this seems unlikely. 

It may be contagious, and it may spread readily from one person to another.  But that does not mean it will necessarily make every person sick along the way.  There may be millions of people whose systems have seen this virus already, and defeated it before their symptoms became especially severe.  Among younger healthy people, they get a fever, and then they get better as their immune systems react.  Some people's immune systems are going to unlock the right proteins sooner than others.  If your immune system finds that key quickly enough, you may defeat the virus without ever knowing you saw it.  People a lot more educated on these matters than I have suggested that the less severe cases that go unreported could be numerous enough to seriously impact the mortality rate of this disease.  I'll try to dig that up.

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https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

 

There is a discussion of how unreported cases would dramatically impact the mortality rate.  There are several mentions of "asymptomatic cases":

Quote
  • The true number of exposed cases affected in Wuhan may be vastly underestimated. With a focus on thousands of serious cases, mild or asymptomatic courses that possibly account for the bulk of the 2019-nCoV infections might remain largely unrecognized, in particular during the influenza season.
  • Under-detection of mild or asymptomatic cases may be further fueled after further growth of the outbreak, as healthcare-facilities and testing capacities in Wuhan have reached their limits.

 

The Lancet said this:

Quote

Importantly, in emerging viral infection outbreaks the case-fatality ratio is often overestimated in the early stages because case detection is highly biased towards the more severe cases.

As further data on the spectrum of mild or asymptomatic infection becomes available, one case of which was documented by Chan and colleagues, the case-fatality ratio is likely to decrease.

Nevertheless, the 1918 influenza pandemic is estimated to have had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5% but had an enormous impact due to widespread transmission, so there is no room for complacency.

 

So the degree of uncertainty is very high right now.  Truth be told, we know almost nothing about what this virus is going to look like when all is said and done.

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FDA had a phone conference with several biotech companies yesterday regarding LDT's, or lab developed tests. There is movement big time on developing better faster and cheaper testing but there also needs to be agreement on who to test and when. There also needs to be large economic agreement on possible shortages of supplies for all things from the simple, antiseptic hand sanitizers, as well as a myriad of raw materials for medicines under production, onto a whole group of fundamental needs people need to use everyday. And we need wage supplements for those who must self guarantee themselves when they do not receive sick-time benefits from their employers. It's not too early to think about the fiscal spending that may be required. 

Regarding the Trump administration in general - one of the failures of the Democratic Congress thus far has been oversight regarding all policies, or lack therein beyond his nonsense in Ukraine, as well as his support for Putin, and a whole host of other tyrants throughout the world.

 

WE need to protect those who are most susceptible to this outbreak, including of course healthcare professionals. We need to move past Trump to get the job done. WE got to be all in on this one.

 

Peace! 

 

 

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