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There is a good chance that Trump could be elected to a second term, because so few Americans understand the economy.


peter45
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Do Americans understand the economy?

Many, or most people think that it is great, and that not re-electing Trump will damage the economy.

So,

a simple question,

does the average American,

(not necessarily someone on this forum, who pays attention to politics)

understand the economy,

and think that it is as good as Trump claims,

or just a house of cards being held up with massive deficit spending?

 

Can/will Trump be re-elected because the Democracy is too complicated for the average (maybe lazy) American to understand?

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4 hours ago, peter45 said:

So,

a simple question,

does the average American,

(not necessarily someone on this forum, who pays attention to politics)

understand the economy,

and think that it is as good as Trump claims,

or just a house of cards being held up with massive deficit spending?

 

No one understands the economy.

There are too many variables.

 

Even if you could understand the interplay of millions of variables, you can't pin it down because it changes too quickly, disrupted by innovation.

 

Here's what I know: the changes in the economy due to science, technology and computing will throw more and more people out of work. Many more people will have minimum wage jobs, and many more will have nothing. The middle class will shrink. At the same time, there will be many more very rich people.

 

The people who have nothing will not allow themselves to starve and die. They will turn to theft, drug dealing, and prostitution, out of desperation. They will join gangs, like organizing in unions, but in the criminal world.

 

Billionaires and multimillionaires will hire private security. The shrinking middle class will buy guns. I think neighborhood watches will be armed.

 

If we want government to help with the coming crisis, they're going to have to tax the billionaires and multimillionaires, with something like Warren's wealth tax.

 

It's either that or the world is going to get a lot uglier.

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2 minutes ago, laripu said:

 

No one understands the economy.

There are too many variables.

 

Even if you could understand the interplay of millions of variables, you can't pin it down because it changes too quickly, disrupted by innovation.

 

Here's what I know: the changes in the economy due to science, technology and computing will throw more and more people out of work. Many more people will have minimum wage jobs, and many more will have nothing. The middle class will shrink. At the same time, there will be many more very rich people.

 

The people who have nothing will not allow themselves to starve and die. They will turn to theft, drug dealing, and prostitution, out of desperation. They will join gangs, like organizing in unions, but in the criminal world.

 

Billionaires and multimillionaires will hire private security. The shrinking middle class will buy guns. I think neighborhood watches will be armed.

 

If we want government to help with the coming crisis, they're going to have to tax the billionaires and multimillionaires, with something like Warren's wealth tax.

 

It's either that or the world is going to get a lot uglier.

All true,

but I was thinking more short term.

I see the deficit supporting 1 in 5 jobs NOW.

The stock market inflated with money that should have been paid in dividends used for buy backs, which just pumps up the prices.

THESE ARE MAJOR FAULTS IN THE ECONOMY,

BUT I DON'T THINK PEOPLE ARE REMOTELY AWARE.

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37 minutes ago, peter45 said:

I see the deficit supporting 1 in 5 jobs NOW.

The stock market inflated with money that should have been paid in dividends used for buy backs, which just pumps up the prices.

 

 Probably. It wouldn't surprise me.

 

I hope the stock market and my 401K don't tank, because I'm getting closer to retirement. I'm too old to turn to crime or sell drugs, and as for prostitution, I'd never make a buck. Nobody's that desperate. 😆🤣🤪

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13 minutes ago, laripu said:

 

 Probably. It wouldn't surprise me.

 

I hope the stock market and my 401K don't tank, because I'm getting closer to retirement. I'm too old to turn to crime or sell drugs, and as for prostitution, I'd never make a buck. Nobody's that desperate. 😆🤣🤪

I am retired, but the wife still works. She is in her 70s, but I think that she thinks that I am too boring to spend her days with, instead of fighting it out at work.

I would still work, to be honest, but my health doesn't let me get around too well.

 

Took all the IRA money out of the market, except for the 401K that she has from work. I don't think she has much say in where to put it. They just moved it all because of some legal hassle with the previous holder.

Put the IRA money in CDs at various banks and credit unions.

 

My parents lived through the Great Depression.

They instilled a health fear of the economy in me.

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7 minutes ago, peter45 said:

My parents lived through the Great Depression.

They instilled a health fear of the economy in me.

 

Same here, except it wasn't the Depression. My parents were Holocaust refugees, and came to Canada with one trunk of clothing, a crystal vase, a small number of Czarist-era Russian gold coins, and nothing else.

 

I've been poor, and I know how to live well while being poor ... but I've never been both poor and old. That possibility scares me a bit. So I hope the stock market holds up until next September. I'm planning on moving everything to safe funds, because if Trump gets a second term, I expect he'll do something to flush the economy down the toilet at his VP's instructions. (Not vice president ... Vladimir Putin.)

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2 hours ago, laripu said:

 

No one understands the economy.

There are too many variables.

 

Even if you could understand the interplay of millions of variables, you can't pin it down because it changes too quickly, disrupted by innovation.

 

Here's what I know: the changes in the economy due to science, technology and computing will throw more and more people out of work. Many more people will have minimum wage jobs, and many more will have nothing. The middle class will shrink. At the same time, there will be many more very rich people.

 

The people who have nothing will not allow themselves to starve and die. They will turn to theft, drug dealing, and prostitution, out of desperation. They will join gangs, like organizing in unions, but in the criminal world.

 

Billionaires and multimillionaires will hire private security. The shrinking middle class will buy guns. I think neighborhood watches will be armed.

 

If we want government to help with the coming crisis, they're going to have to tax the billionaires and multimillionaires, with something like Warren's wealth tax.

 

It's either that or the world is going to get a lot uglier.

I agree that economics is not a perfect science, and it is complicated because as you state, it is filled with many variables - narratives that aren't exactly true can make change hard to come by, and the area that creates a stable economy - the growth of a middle class, which creates demand is sorely lacking these days. Regarding science and technology - if it were to increase productivity, in a perfect world this would bring wage increases and folks would not need to work long hours just to get by. If we take a look at productivity growth as a measure over the last few decades, it has been poor, which does not indicate that technology is responsible for taking away jobs

Many of the jobs we lost in manufacturing were lost from 2000 to 2010, largely because companies left the US in search of cheaper labor. When we say trade policy, we are talking mostly about companies leaving for cheaper labor while at the same time securing intellectual property rights by those who make up the trade deals - corporations. Here the National Narrative is always - we must protect our intellectual property overseas - but it's not our intellectual property, it's not the intellectual property of the people of this Nation, it's the intellectual property of the corporation - which btw used taxpayers money from investments in the basic R&D - yes, much of the technological advances came from the National Government and not by Bill Gates, or any single entity in any privately held technological field.

The problem with inequality is that it is structurally inefficient for CEO's to make hundreds of times that of the average employee. It's embedded in our Federal Government where elected officials are beholden to corporate lobbyist. Basically we have a congress that never gets anything done in the way of positive change. 

I also agree that we do need to increase Government revenue, because man oh man, we need to rebuild our infrastructure and deal big time with climate change now.

 

Peace!

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