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New Poll Suggest AOC and Omar May Hurt Democrats in 2020

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New poll has extremely bad news for Democratic Party, reveals how voters feel about AOC, Ilhan Omar

 

https://www.theblaze.com/news/poll-democrats-2020-ocasio-cortez-ilhan-omar

 

Quote

 

A new internal Democratic Party survey polling voter sentiment in crucial swing states revealed that controversial Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) are extremely unpopular and could cost Democrats both their House majority and the presidency in 2020.

 

According to Axios, the poll discovered that:

  • Ocasio-Cortez is recognized by 74 percent of voters, yet has an approval rating of 22 percent
  • Omar is recognized by 53 percent of voters and has an approval rating of just 9 percent
  • Voters understand what socialism is, and 69 percent of them view it unfavorably, while just 18 percent view it favorably
  • Capitalism, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by 56 percent of respondents, and negatively by 32 percent

 

"If all voters hear about is AOC, it could put the [House] majority at risk," a top Democratic source told Axios. 

 

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Exclusive poll: AOC defining Dems in swing states

https://www.axios.com/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-poll-democrats-2020-aeaa3771-f142-4059-b79e-1fed569dfdf9.html

 

Top Democrats are circulating a poll showing that one of the House's most progressive members — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — has become a definitional face for the party with a crucial group of swing voters. 

 

Why it matters: These Democrats are sounding the alarm that swing voters know and dislike socialism, warning it could cost them the House and the presidency. The poll is making the rounds of some of the most influential Democrats in America. 

 

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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/14/1871665/-IS-AOC-Helping-Or-Hurting-The-Democratic-Party-And-Causes

 

Before you attack the messenger and put your head in the sand please remember what it was like in 2016 with a Republican House, a Republican Senate, and Trump! 

 

If we are going to save the planet, provide all our citizens with health care, fix immigration, and unite children with their mothers, among other important missions, we must first unite as one for the common good, not believe only what we believe as individuals.

 

A very disturbing poll was posted on Axios today:  Exclusive poll: AOC defining Dems in swing states

 

Whether you like Axios or not, whether believe in this poll or any poll, there is a possibility that there is truth here.  If so, we all have a big problem.

 

The poll in question is being circulated by top Democrats; it shows that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has become a defining face for the Democratic party among a crucial group of swing voters.

 

The Democrats circulating the poll are concerned that “swing voters know and dislike socialism, warning it could cost them the House and the presidency.”

 

If true, the poll findings are very disturbing...

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Bernie Sanders is explicitly calling for (Democratic) Socialism.  And Elizabeth Warren's agenda is implicitly Social Democratic.  Both are relatively popular and polls indicate either one would defeat Trump now.  Both Sanders and Warren are White and both, have risen through traditional political channels.

 

Like Sanders and Warren,  "The Squad" is far to the left. 

 

But in marked contrast, AOC, Ayanna Pressly, Rashida Tliabb and Ilhan Omar are still freshmen but throwing their weight around and acting entitled to a voice as loud as Congressional seniors like Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer.   And they are Women of Color.  So, in many quarters, they are seen as usurpers, not deserving of the power they hastily seek.  This outrage plays straight into racism against these women.

 

Trump recently took advantage of of the situation by siding with Nancy Pelosi, against "The Squad", in a series of racist tweets.  It is obvious that the Democrats have a minor yet conspicuous uprising on their hands.

 

All this begs the question:  What can be done about it?   Following Trump's tweets,  Nancy Pelosi is trying to calm the waters.  Perhaps she went too far in her earlier censure of the "The Squad".  For their part, AOC, Omar, Tliabb and Pressly are unlikely to be humbled.  And, in it's way, that could be a good thing for the Democratic Party because "The Squad represents a sizeable chunk of the electorate which has often been poorly represented at the polls.

 

Just my 2 cents worth.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, bludog said:

Bernie Sanders is explicitly calling for (Democratic) Socialism.  And Elizabeth Warren's agenda is implicitly Social Democratic.  Both are relatively popular and polls indicate either one would defeat Trump now.  Both Sanders and Warren are White and both, have risen through traditional political channels.

 

Like Sanders and Warren,  "The Squad" is far to the left. 

 

But in marked contrast, AOC, Ayanna Pressly, Rashida Tliabb and Ilhan Omar are still freshmen but throwing their weight around and acting entitled to a voice as loud as Congressional seniors like Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer.   And they are Women of Color.  So, in many quarters, they are seen as usurpers, not deserving of the power they hastily seek.  This outrage plays straight into racism against these women.

 

Trump recently took advantage of of the situation by siding with Nancy Pelosi, against "The Squad", in a series of racist tweets.  It is obvious that the Democrats have a minor yet conspicuous uprising on their hands.

 

All this begs the question:  What can be done about it?   Following Trump's tweets,  Nancy Pelosi is trying to calm the waters.  Perhaps she went too far in her earlier censure of the "The Squad".  For their part, AOC, Omar, Tliabb and Pressly are unlikely to be humbled.  And, in it's way, that could be a good thing for the Democratic Party because "The Squad represents a sizeable chunk of the electorate which has often been poorly represented at the polls.

 

Just my 2 cents worth.

 

 

The "conservative" propagandists have already declared AOC as the LEADER of the Democratic Party,

and will continue to do so,

because it fires up their base.

They would have live coverage of AOC flossing her teeth, if they could get it.

 

The Democrats need to read some of the posts on this forum, and admit that almost half of the voters are so fiercely gullible,

that they would vote for a trained seal, instead of a Democrat.

Which, is pretty much what happened in the last presidential election.

 

The "establishment" Democrats must take the "Squad" aside, and explain to them that in order to do what is best for the country,

they must drink the Hemlock, and play dead.

Yes, it sucks that such a large portion of the electorate must be fooled into doing what is best for themselves,

but, in this case,

the end does justify the means.

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34 minutes ago, peter45 said:

The "establishment" Democrats must take the "Squad" aside, and explain to them that in order to do what is best for the country,

they must drink the Hemlock, and play dead.

 

For all we know this might have already been done.

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We'd be so lucky to have someone as smart and hard working as AOC leading our party.

 

These polls, btw, are focused mainly on non-college educated white voters.  They're hit pieces designed to tear down the progressive wing of the party.  Time and again the establishment want us to tow the line, but fail to realize we are NOT the Republicans, we don't tow the line.  If we want to keep the house, win the senate, and the presidency, we have to appeal to our base--NOT to the Republican base.  It didn't work in 2016, and it won't work in 2020.

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13 hours ago, Olivaw said:

Exclusive poll: AOC defining Dems in swing states

https://www.axios.com/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-poll-democrats-2020-aeaa3771-f142-4059-b79e-1fed569dfdf9.html

 

Top Democrats are circulating a poll showing that one of the House's most progressive members — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — has become a definitional face for the party with a crucial group of swing voters. 

 

Why it matters: These Democrats are sounding the alarm that swing voters know and dislike socialism, warning it could cost them the House and the presidency. The poll is making the rounds of some of the most influential Democrats in America. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/america-socialism-capitalism-poll-axios

Four in 10 Americans prefer socialism to capitalism, poll finds

  • Axios poll reveals 55% of women aged 18-54 prefer socialism
  • Majority of men would rather live in a capitalist country

Forty percent of Americans would rather live in a socialist country than a capitalist one, with a majority of younger women having this preference, according to a new poll.

 

 

 
 
That four in 10 respondents supported socialism suggests the US might be shaking off decades of stigma – in keeping with the rising prominence of avowedly democratic socialist politicians, such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

 

According to the survey from Axios on HBO, respondents had varying views on what comprised a socialist political system. Seventy-six percent of respondents agreed that universal healthcare was a hallmark of socialism. Seventy-two percent agreed that tuition-free education was also a characteristic of socialism, and 68% thought a living wage was part of a socialist system.

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Americans warming to socialism over capitalism, polls show

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/americans-warming-to-socialism-over-capitalism-polls-show

 

Back in 2010, 68 percent of young people, 18-29 years old, said they approved of capitalism, while 51 percent said they approved of socialism, according to Gallup. Fast-forward to August 2018, and that same age group backs socialism over capitalism, 51 percent to 45 percent.

 

Democrats, meanwhile, were evenly split between capitalism and socialism back in 2010. But now, 57 percent say they hold a positive view of socialism, compared with just 47 percent who say the same for capitalism.

 

The trend extends to high school students, according to a YouGov poll released in November, which found 14-17-year-olds split 50-50 on whether socialism or capitalism is better.

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/02/11/why_trumps_war_on_socialism_will_fail_139422.html

Why Trump's War on Socialism Will Fail

 
.

Open advocacy of socialism is now a normal part of our political discourse. Ocasio-Cortez is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., won over 12 million votes in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries running explicitly as a democratic socialist. Some recent polls even have Sanders running ahead of Trump in hypothetical 2020 matchups.

 

Young Americans especially are far more likely to associate "socialism" with generous social insurance states than with jackboots and gulags. Sweden, Norway and Denmark are anything but frightening places.

 

The 2018 PRRI American Values Survey offered respondents two definitions of socialism. One described it as "a system in which government provides citizens with health insurance, retirement support and access to free higher education," essentially a description of social democracy. The other was the full Soviet dose: "a system where the government controls key parts of the economy such as utilities, transportation and communications industries."

 

You might say that socialism is winning the branding war: 54 percent said socialism was about those public benefits while just 43 percent picked the version that stressed government domination. Americans aged 18 to 29, for whom Cold War memories are dim to nonexistent, were even more inclined to define socialism as social democracy: 58 percent of them picked the soft option, 38 percent the hard one.

 

Oh, yes, and on those tax increases that conservatives love to hate -- and associate with socialism of the creeping kind -- a Fox News poll last week found that 70 percent of Americans favored raising taxes on those with incomes of over $10 million.

 

Trump will still probably get some traction with his attacks on socialism. And progressives should remember that social democratic ideas associated with fairness and expanding individual freedoms -- to get health care or go to college, for example -- are more popular than those restricting choice.

 

Nonetheless, Jerome Frank was right: those slurred as socialists really do have a good track record of making capitalism work better and more justly. The S-word is not now, and, in its democratic forms, never should have been an obscenity.

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The response to polls often depends upon the definition of socialism that is being used.  Many of the programs that the Republicans have labelled as socialist programs are nothing of the sort. They pretend that every social program puts us on the slippery slope towards soviet communism. In reality, programs like public health care, public schools,  social security and environmental protection are sensible public policy. 

 

Traditional socialism, which involves public ownership of the means of production, will not attract much support from voters. 

 

Progressive public policy can attract widespread support on the merits. Why it is necessary to adopt the Republican word for those programs and start throwing around words like socialism when all it will do is feed into the Republican narrative? 

 

FT_19.06.25_Socialism_Most-Republicans-s

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/25/stark-partisan-divisions-in-americans-views-of-socialism-capitalism/

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5 hours ago, LoreD said:

You might say that socialism is winning the branding war: 54 percent said socialism was about those public benefits while just 43 percent picked the version that stressed government domination. Americans aged 18 to 29, for whom Cold War memories are dim to nonexistent, were even more inclined to define socialism as social democracy: 58 percent of them picked the soft option, 

 

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socialism

 noun
so·cial·ism | \ ˈsō-shə-ˌli-zəm  \

Definition of socialism

 

1any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods
2aa system of society or group living in which there is no private property
ba system or condition of society in which the means of production are owned and controlled by the state
3a stage of society in Marxist theory transitional between capitalism and communism and distinguished by unequal distribution of goods and pay according to work done
 
 
———
 
Socialism is a range of economic and social systems characterised by social ownership of the means of production and workers' self-management,[10] as well as the political theories and movements associated with them.[11] Social ownership can be publiccollective or cooperative ownership, or citizen ownership of equity.[12] There are many varieties of socialism and there is no single definition encapsulating all of them,[13] with social ownership being the common element shared by its various forms.[5][14][15]
 
 
 
 
 

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First of all, this poll is taken of "swing" voters who went for Trump in 2016. That's a very narrow selection of people, and I think they are offset by the number of people who are excited and invigorated by AOC and the rest of the Squad. Also, to be honest, Congress is pretty much despised by *everyone*, so dislike of a representative does not necessarily translate to who will be chosen for President. 

 

The lesson here is NOT to shut up these brave congresswomen. The lesson is to promote POSITIVE news about progressives. 

 

In short, it doesn't matter squat if these swing voters vote Democratic if the base is apathetic because we have the same tepid dishwater candidates as before. 

 

Also, neither Warren NOR Sanders are far left. We need to really re-educate Americans on that.

 

Political Compass

 

 

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Cenk Uygur on this subject:

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/452972-cenk-uygur-heres-how-to-choose-a-president

Quote

<snip>

Every poll taken in 2016 and most polls taken in this cycle indicate that more progressive candidates do better in general election matchups against Republicans. But the mainstream media also believes in alternative facts, not out of malice but out of an unbreakable group think.

 For the rest of us, if you are a progressive, this one is a no-brainer. The progressive politicians you support are more likely to win, not less. On the other hand, if you thought Hillary Clinton was awesome and you want a candidate just like her, that’s ok, but you have to live with the fact that might lead to four more years of Donald Trump.  

If you think that statement is outrageous, you don’t live in the real world. On this planet, the person who lost an election to Donald Trump was the establishment candidate. Repeating that error could be fatal to the Democratic Party and to the country. Again, almost everyone in the establishment press will tell you the opposite even though the facts are indisputable. Hillary Clinton is not in fact president.

<snip>

 

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57 minutes ago, bludog said:

I wonder if Cenk Uygur has considered that there may have been more to Hillary Clinton’s EC loss than her being the so-called “establishment” candidate. If only it were that simple.

 

Uygur linked to a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Sanders in mid 2016 to substantiate his thesis that progressive candidates always poll better. 

 

Currently hypothetical matchup polls tell a different tale. 

Trump v Sanders: Sanders +4.8

Trump v Warren: Warren +2.5

Trump v Biden: Biden  +8.5 

Trump v Buttigieg: Buttigieg +1.0

Trump v Harris: Harris +2.0

 

Note: nothing against Uygur. He’s as knowledgeable as other talking heads.

 

 

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18 hours ago, Cecelia said:

We'd be so lucky to have someone as smart and hard working as AOC leading our party.

 

These polls, btw, are focused mainly on non-college educated white voters.  They're hit pieces designed to tear down the progressive wing of the party.  Time and again the establishment want us to tow the line, but fail to realize we are NOT the Republicans, we don't tow the line.  If we want to keep the house, win the senate, and the presidency, we have to appeal to our base--NOT to the Republican base.  It didn't work in 2016, and it won't work in 2020.

We need to remember,

OVER, AND OVER, AND OVER AGAIN,

that close to half of the voters in this country,

ARE IDIOTS.

 

It is like swimming for your life,

WITH AN ANCHOR AROUND YOUR NECK.

 

The propagandists will lie about almost EVERYTHING.

On the CBS nightly news,

I saw the video in which the Democratic Senators from Illinois said;

"Replace ICE".

Less than 10 seconds later, the CBS reported claimed that they had said;

"Eliminate ICE".

That would be a major corporate owned news network, in the Chicago market, a Blue State market.

 

While we can reach for the stars,

we may need to climb in little bitty steps.

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I was watching an analysis of some of these polls.  One poll deleted any group that was below a certain percentage.  A poll that showed Biden way ahead in the polls had deleted groups that were below 125 people.  Which meant that all of the 18-29 group had been deleted.  And then they deleted all the 30-50 group.  The rationale was that any group below 125 people was not "significant."

 

Which left a poll entirely comprised of only people over 50 years old.

 

 

 

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Democratic infighting escalates as 'top lawmakers' leak cherry-picked anti-AOC poll

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/democratic-infighting-escalates-as-top-lawmakers-leak-cherry-picked-anti-aoc-poll

 

If a partially released, anonymously leaked survey does not fill you with confidence, you are not alone.

 

The most interesting thing here is not polling data suggesting Omar and Ocasio-Cortez are hugely unpopular with a specific segment of Democratic voters, but the fact that Democratic leaders leaked these figures at all. It marks a major escalation in the ongoing fight between the liberal (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) and the ultra-liberal (Ocasio-Cortez) wings of the Democratic party.

 

It sounds damning alright, but all we know about the survey is that it was conducted in May and that it surveyed 1,003 white “likely general-election” voters have two years or less of a college education. That is it. That is all we know. The people leaking this information to the press have not released the survey’s full results or even its polling margin of error. Even more amazing is that the “group that took the poll shared the results with Axios on the condition that it not be named, because the group has to work with all parts of the party,” Axios’ Mike Allen notes.

 

Lastly, there is the curious use of the term “crucial group of swing voters” in the Axios report. This particular designation does not make much sense, according to pollster Frank Luntz.

 

I haven’t seen the full demographic/location breakdown of that internal Dem poll, but it apparently only polled white non-college voters – who have been going GOP by 15+ points for the past decade,” he noted on social media. “Not sure why they’re called ‘swing voters’ by whoever leaked the poll to [Axios].”

 

All that leaves us with is an "exclusive" poll that was received on the condition of anonymity, whose methodology and full results have not been made public, and whose supposed toplines are not being characterized accurately by the news outlet to whom the survey was leaked in the first place.

 

But accuracy and thoroughness were never the point.

 

The point in anonymously providing reporters with unflattering polling numbers on Ocasio-Cortez and Omar is to undermine further the freshmen women’s credibility and standing within their own party. The leak is a none-too-subtle attempt by Democratic leaders to shame and pressure the insurgent progressives into getting back in line.

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We need to reach out to the Squad more and not pull folks apart. Who said that?

These are young women who are out there might just be a bit obviously a bit over their head, yet, they are hitting on a lot of important issues that just ain't too new.

The Right, paints their voices in racists ways - Donald Trump

What we need is a discussion regarding truth. What about the National Debt ? 

What about the effects of Climate change if we do nothing?

 

The Coal Industry Is Not a Major Employer

Written by Dean Baker

Published: 15 July 2019

The NYT had a column by Eliza Griswold talking about the prospect of job loss in coal mining areas due to efforts to restrict greenhouse gas emissions. While it is often traumatic for workers to lose jobs, especially long-held jobs, it is important to realize that relatively few jobs are at stake in the coal mining industry.

For example, in Pennsylvania, one of the states mentioned in the piece, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that there are now 5,000 coal mining jobs in the state. The state has over 6 million workers, which means that coal mining accounts for roughly 0.08 percent of employment in the state. Kentucky has 5,800 jobs in coal mining, with total employment of 1,950,000. That comes to a bit more than 0.3 percent of total employment. Even in West Virginia, the heart of coal country, there are only 23,000 jobs in coal mining out of a total of 740,000 jobs. This comes to a bit more than 3.0 percent of total employment.

In all three states, there were sharp drops in employment in the industry in the past, which drastically reduced the importance of coal mining employment. It is a bit peculiar that the earlier declines in coal mining employment, which were primarily due to productivity growth (specifically, replacing underground mining with strip mining -- a policy often opposed by environmentalists), received relatively little attention in the media or from politicians. By contrast, the prospect of considerably smaller future declines due to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is drawing extensive attention.

 

We need a Democratic Party that gets it right, delivers truth, uses oversight from topic experts who are not biased by ideology. We need to open up the spigot from which ideas flow while at the same time illustrating the vast constraints.

 

Get those young people involved... We need to go forth with caution, but surely, we do need to stand on the solid ground of truth. I guess we got to move forward somehow. Compare and Contrast.

 

Peace!

 

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