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WillFranklin

This Lackluster Trump Economy Is Also On The Credit Card To Be Paid Back By The Middle Class With Interest

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The economy has not really improved since the last President, Obama, had 2.70% annual growth in calendar 2014 and a 438 Billion Dollar Deficit for the 2015 Fiscal year.

 

https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year

 

https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/initial-gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-annual-2018

 

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_deficit_chart.html

 

 

Yet we are running an annual budget deficit of over a trillion dollars now mostly due to the tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations according to the same link above. So now the difference is that even though we are not in a recession yet, we have to repay a lot more money with interest, and are not getting anything new for it.

 

Donald Trump has only achieved 2.97% annual GDP growth in calendar 2018 and is only projected to do worse.

 

Revenue was down for calendar 2018, not only when compared to what 2018 would be without the tax cuts, but also when compared to calendar 2017, a terrible result, thus the higher deficit. I proved this article correct and can do so any time in this thread if you doubt it:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-tax-revenue-declined-0-4-in-2018-11550084426

 

 

And if you clamor about the jobs, Trump does not outperform Obama there, in fact he is not doing as well. His two year average is lower than Obama's last two. 

 

jobs-Obama2-Trump2.png

 

And the government itself admits the tax cuts had little effect at all on the average worker and that the revenue was even 9 Billion dollars below the already lower estimates for the first year.

 

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45736

 

So in summary, are you willing to tell your children that they will have to repay this with interest when it is actually not as good as what we had before?

 

Do you want to tell your family members that their entitlements that they paid for will not be there fully when they need them?

 

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This is another way of transferring the wealth of the nation upward.    And if the GOP timing is right, the recession/depression won't hit, with full impact until the next, Democratic administration takes office.  Then, as always, the Republicans will try to blame the economic hardship, they caused, on the Democrats.  

 

Once the new Democratic administration starts making progress cleaning up the mess, the Right Wing Noise Machine will have pinned the problem, in the minds of much of the electorate, on the Democrats (they hope);   And Republicans will take take power again in 2024 or 2028, and start a new round of outrageously irresponsible, plutocratic, economic policy.

 

It is up to the Democratic Party to combat Republican disinformation and make sure the electorate is not fooled yet again.

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2 hours ago, bludog said:

This is another way of transferring the wealth of the nation upward.    And if the GOP timing is right, the recession/depression won't hit, with full impact until the next, Democratic administration takes office.  Then, as always, the Republicans will try to blame the economic hardship, they caused, on the Democrats.  

 

Once the new Democratic administration starts making progress cleaning up the mess, the Right Wing Noise Machine will have pinned the problem, in the minds of much of the electorate, on the Democrats (they hope);   And Republicans will take take power again in 2024 or 2028, and start a new round of outrageously irresponsible, plutocratic, economic policy.

 

It is up to the Democratic Party to combat Republican disinformation and make sure the electorate is not fooled yet again.

 

Many are saying that with the loss of so many small business jobs in May of this year that a recession may be sooner than later.

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1 hour ago, WillFranklin said:

Many are saying that with the loss of so many small business jobs in May of this year that a recession may be sooner than later.

 

The last thing I want, at any time, is an economic downturn, but if it happens under Trump's watch, they will be exposed and possibly forced to abandon some of their reckless policies for awhile, at least.

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10 hours ago, bludog said:

 

The last thing I want, at any time, is an economic downturn, but if it happens under Trump's watch, they will be exposed and possibly forced to abandon some of their reckless policies for awhile, at least.

 

I don't think anything will stop them from horrible policy, unfortunately. It is in their genes.

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3 hours ago, WillFranklin said:

 

I don't think anything will stop them from horrible policy, unfortunately. It is in their genes.

How many voters understand economics.

If you watch enough television commercials for stock market traders,

you need to begin to believe that;

nobody ever needs to work

everyone should quit their jobs, and live off of their investments

 

The "conservatives" criticize the "liberals" because they claim that they offer "free stuff".

But,

that is exactly what the "conservatives" think that they vote for, for themselves.

The magical "investment" that will take them away from their boring job, and put them on a yacht,

which is exactly the theme of one of the commercials that the stock brokers air.

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1 hour ago, peter45 said:

How many voters understand economics.

If you watch enough television commercials for stock market traders,

you need to begin to believe that;

nobody ever needs to work

everyone should quit their jobs, and live off of their investments

 

The "conservatives" criticize the "liberals" because they claim that they offer "free stuff".

But,

that is exactly what the "conservatives" think that they vote for, for themselves.

The magical "investment" that will take them away from their boring job, and put them on a yacht,

which is exactly the theme of one of the commercials that the stock brokers air.

 

I have a Bachelors Degree in Mathematics and Computer Science Cum Laude and am still learning more and more every day.

 

The most interesting thing I have recently learned is that Republicans shifted the tax burden from corporations to individuals with their Tax Scam. It should have been obvious from the beginning.

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15 minutes ago, WillFranklin said:

 

I have a Bachelors Degree in mathematics and Computer Science Cum Laude and am still learning more and more every day.

 

The most interesting thing I have recently learned is that Republicans shifted the tax burden from corporations to individuals with their Tax Scam. It should have been obvious from the beginning.

The most important subjects that you will never be able to make a penny for knowing anything about are politics,

and corporate finance.

Unless you are willing to sell your soul. Or, be proud to call yourself a scumbag. Depending on your point of view.

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On 6/13/2019 at 11:44 AM, peter45 said:

The most important subjects that you will never be able to make a penny for knowing anything about are politics,

and corporate finance.

Unless you are willing to sell your soul. Or, be proud to call yourself a scumbag. Depending on your point of view.

 

I made good money as a Senior Programmer/Analyst at my local (huge) regional medical center. And then a bit less as a Middle and High School Mathematics Teacher for the North Carolina Public Schools. I am now retired. 

 

When it comes to politics, I like focusing on the numbers, and facts. I can remember numbers well. I want to know how government works for my own benefit, and so I can discuss it, and be influential about it if possible, in a conversation, whether it be online or in person. But I do not plan on doing it for a living.

 

I have a part time job that I love! I have been doing it for six years in August, and have recently improved my performance and have been rewarded. Retirement is great, but I love working!

 

 

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9 hours ago, WillFranklin said:

 

I made good money as a Senior Programmer/Analyst at my local (huge) regional medical center. And then a bit less as a Middle and High School Mathematics Teacher for the North Carolina Public Schools. I am now retired. 

 

When it comes to politics, I like focusing on the numbers, and facts. I can remember numbers well. I want to know how government works for my own benefit, and so I can discuss it, and be influential about it if possible, in a conversation, whether it be online or in person. But I do not plan on doing it for a living.

 

I have a part time job that I love! I have been doing it for six years in August, and have recently improved my performance and have been rewarded. Retirement is great, but I love working!

 

 

I am retired, in my 70s.

My health doesn't permit me to get around good enough to go out for a job, but I still get some work from old clients that I can do on the computer from home.

My wife, in her 70s, doesn't want to quit her job. Also in IS, for a hospital system. She is involved in new technology development and implementation for the hospitals, and loves it. Complains about the management, of course, but loves the job.

 

I worked in various corporate manufacturing companies capital expansions, for multiple companies.

I spent $millions on designing and building new factories, production lines, developing new products, etc..

While I spent many, many corporate dollars, and got somewhat involved in the financing and tax implications, I probably never really got the "big picture", of who got what, and where the dollars were coming from.

I can verify that the "conservative" image of the "all knowing, and capable" CEO is laughable. I have dealt with multi-billionaire owners and executives who were fools.

I remember one poor (physically) billionaire being let into a board meeting. He was possibly senile, but was surrounded by a group of executives, who were directing his fortune (probably into their pockets).

Some of the various movie portrayals of business dealings are just not that far off the mark. There must be more corporate "spies" who were disgusted by what they have seen, and let the screen writers in on what really happens.

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14 hours ago, peter45 said:

 

My wife, in her 70s, doesn't want to quit her job. Also in IS, for a hospital system. She is involved in new technology development and implementation for the hospitals, and loves it. Complains about the management, of course, but loves the job.

 

 

 

 

Tell her I programmed the integration engine.

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3 hours ago, WillFranklin said:

 

 

Tell her I programmed the integration engine.

Tell some old person, or some young kid who is ill,

that it still needs work, and there are a lot of people who know this,

and care enough to do all that they can, to help, for as long as they can!

For as long as they still can, they will! 

https://www.peri.umass.edu/publication/item/1127-economic-analysis-of-medicare-for-all

Peace!

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On 6/13/2019 at 11:30 AM, WillFranklin said:

The most interesting thing I have recently learned is that Republicans shifted the tax burden from corporations to individuals with their Tax Scam. It should have been obvious from the beginning.

 

The Republicans time and time again do not care about the average american, they have been scamming the american people ever since the implementation of Reaganomics with the claim that if you give tax cuts to the Rich and Corporations that it will "trickle down" to me and you. We have seen how that has worked. I really wish people would comprehend the fact that Republicans do not care about the average american and that tax cuts do in fact benefit the rich and powerful substantially more than the average american.

 

11-28-11povf2.png?itok=sbZTV_oa

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  On 6/13/2019 at 8:30 AM, WillFranklin said:

The most interesting thing I have recently learned is that Republicans shifted the tax burden from corporations to individuals with their Tax Scam. It should have been obvious from the beginning.

 

Well, the truth is we just don't know what they think, WillFranklin.

We can only posit the outcomes they have created time and time again.

And suggest, clearly it does not work for the rest, it never ever did - which you have shown by the numbers.

 

But, that's the outcome of education. The heady, obnoxious group that calls for folks to learn,

them Ivory Tower, types, let's put them into a category, far to the left.

Let them think about wars, and criticize all those who gave their life to protect this country, 

and also protect other nations, far off nations, like all Koreans, all Vietnamese, Iraqi, Sudanese, people in Afghanistan, 

people in Yemen, and those Beirut, Lebanon, or in Palestine - this name of people who live on the W bank, or on the Gaza Strip - it's a nice strip, a fine piece of real estate -

with finely appropriated front lawns (not quite) , people all over the globe... and even in places like Japan/ or economically Italy - economically Italy,

from the Greek school of economic thought.

Well then, that's just what we do,

all that we can! (Socrates)

 

Peace!

 

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On 6/22/2019 at 1:13 AM, TheOldBarn said:
  On 6/13/2019 at 8:30 AM, WillFranklin said:

The most interesting thing I have recently learned is that Republicans shifted the tax burden from corporations to individuals with their Tax Scam. It should have been obvious from the beginning.

 

Well, the truth is we just don't know what they think, WillFranklin.

We can only posit the outcomes they have created time and time again.

And suggest, clearly it does not work for the rest, it never ever did - which you have shown by the numbers.

 

But, that's the outcome of education. The heady, obnoxious group that calls for folks to learn,

them Ivory Tower, types, let's put them into a category, far to the left.

Let them think about wars, and criticize all those who gave their life to protect this country, 

and also protect other nations, far off nations, like all Koreans, all Vietnamese, Iraqi, Sudanese, people in Afghanistan, 

people in Yemen, and those Beirut, Lebanon, or in Palestine - this name of people who live on the W bank, or on the Gaza Strip - it's a nice strip, a fine piece of real estate -

with finely appropriated front lawns (not quite) , people all over the globe... and even in places like Japan/ or economically Italy - economically Italy,

from the Greek school of economic thought.

Well then, that's just what we do,

all that we can! (Socrates)

 

Peace!

 

 

Thanks

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On 6/20/2019 at 2:33 AM, zkyllonen8 said:

 

The Republicans time and time again do not care about the average american, they have been scamming the american people ever since the implementation of Reaganomics with the claim that if you give tax cuts to the Rich and Corporations that it will "trickle down" to me and you. We have seen how that has worked. I really wish people would comprehend the fact that Republicans do not care about the average american and that tax cuts do in fact benefit the rich and powerful substantially more than the average american.

 

11-28-11povf2.png?itok=sbZTV_oa

 

Thanks to you as well.

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Someone said to explain how this economy isn't for everyone...

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On 6/27/2019 at 11:16 AM, WillFranklin said:

Someone said to explain how this economy isn't for everyone...

well it is rigged towards the top earners, who were given a silver spoon, for them college, healthcare, great homes, great excesses, seem almost free. To them it is not too good

to be skeptical, because it's literally true.

They have it all, and it's easy and truthful to expect the same in perpetuity. Low tax rates, check. Strong dollar, check. Cheap labor to produce in third world countries, where you will

always create more profits, check. Lengthy, and crazy patent rights that make no sense, check.

If the banks fail the government will back you up, no matter how much you screw things up, Check!!!

 

You don't need SS, or medicare, you don't need single payer healthcare, you don't need healthcare insurance. Your kids are going to the best Universities in the world, no matter if they are

smart enough, Check!

 

The laws in the US are made to protect you and your wealth, so that it will grow and grow, no matter if the debt burden on the rest of us isn't fair, Check!

 

All things in your eyes being equal, given the high price of paying back loans, quick loans, payday loans, they don't understand APR, what it means. 

 

Here is a good read regarding the Corporate U.S. kids for Servitude by wiping out Good Public Schools / check!

 

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/the-corporate-plan-to-groom-u-s-kids-for-servitude-by-wiping-out-public-schools

 

Hey Will, The Institute for Economic Thinking, is a great website. 

There are a lot of economist who give a darn about climate change and inequality, and they ain't socialist. 

Although Keynes did make a good case against capitalism - https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/the-corporate-plan-to-groom-u-s-kids-for-servitude-by-wiping-out-public-schools

 

It's a great book, I have not gotten all the way through. 

 

Peace! Peace from war, and from poverty, and fascism, and bigotry, and ignorance.

 

Isn't that why kids should go to school / to make a better world?

 

We need free markets, competition, 

 

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8 hours ago, TheOldBarn said:

Check!

Great Post, Barn.  I could not have explained better.

I won't even try.

 

 

 

Gotta love Tom....

 

" Well it takes care of business, never needs winding,
Never needs winding, never needs winding
Gets rid of blackheads, the heartbreak of psoriasis,

Christ, you don't know the meaning of heartbreak, buddy."

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On 6/12/2019 at 6:35 PM, bludog said:

 

The last thing I want, at any time, is an economic downturn, but if it happens under Trump's watch, they will be exposed and possibly forced to abandon some of their reckless policies for awhile, at least.

Great points bludog! It's not something we haven't seen in years past. It is hard to look thirty years down the road, but when you do, the taxpayer is the one who gets hit in the end. 

That's why we need more progressives. We do need to think about things outside of the current state of our economy. We should all know about the decimated infrastructure, and we should know about the current state of folks trying to immigrate here in droves, about healthcare, about climate change, etc...

 

Huge tax cuts for the rich also has shown to massively grow our debt over time. Trade deals are made by Corporate America, for Corporate America's profits, and without any type of built-in protection for jobs here in the US, we know this to be true. 

 

We need to be humane regarding refugees at our border, and we need a comprehensive immigration policy, and better diplomacy with other countries in the America's. America as a whole, North, Central, and South, has a lot of potential for more prosperity, if we all work together. And why does that have to be a Liberal or Progressive view? 

I wish there could be better discussion regarding the best policies to undertake, without all the lies. People say that is politics. I say it isn't. I say politics is having a salient point regarding policy, and then having to discuss the pro's and the con's to any type of policy truthfully. Lying is about lying. It always has been. 

 

Peace!

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I am planning to pin the NHB version of this thread in August. Come join the debate! We have this to rub this in their faces!

 

If anyone wants to prepare for the debate here they probably won't be reading this one.

 

On August 1 when I get them to pin the version of this in NHB we will have the June jobs numbers. Actually we will already have them tomorrow.

 

Also recall that in May we only added 75,000 jobs.

 

And short term investments score better than long term investments, a tested sign of recession.

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Quote

 

Housing is providing another in a line of troubling signs pointing to an economic downturn

  • Declining home sales are “consistent with the possibility of a late 2019 or early 2020 recession,” St. Louis Fed economist William Emmons said in a report.
  • The analysis overlays home sales over 12- and 36-month periods to look at trends that have held up during the previous three recessions.
  • Emmons said a recession, if it hits, would be “much less severe” than during the Great Recession that exploded in 2008.

 

A Federal Reserve economist says the current housing backdrop is similar to recent economic slumps, with several metrics “consistent with the possibility of a late 2019 or early 2020 recession.”

 

“Data on single-family home sales through May 2019 confirm that housing markets in all regions of the country are weakening,” the St. Louis Fed’s William R. Emmons said in a report posted on the central bank district’s site. “The severity of the housing downturn appears comparable across regions—in all cases, it’s much less severe than the experience leading to the Great Recession but similar to the periods before the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions.”

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/home-sales-point-to-recession-in-late-2019-or-2020-fed-economist-says.html

 

 

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On 7/4/2019 at 11:12 PM, Olivaw said:

 

 

what Olivaw said mysteriously didn't come through when I quoted it.

It's an interesting thing to note, back in 2005 it was a housing boom, housing prices ballooned, and anyone could get a loan, and those loans were all bundled by Wall Street, and graded as A+ by Standard and Poor's.

Now, that we have the greatest economy ever, as Trump has pronounced, people remember high housing prices a bit more. Housing starts are not what they were during the boom. During the housing boom that was what economist call a bubble that burst, we would have been in a stagnant economy otherwise. If you remember, that's when after Bush's tax cuts in 2001, demand soured, and Bush's tax cuts did not cause Corporate America to make big Capital purchases, or employ more people in the US, towards a better economic future / the stimulus only made them buy back more stock, which made some of their biggest investors richer still. 

And yet, there was a housing bubble. Why yes, the only thing that saved the economy, or at least seemed to save the economy that was in peril, was a housing boom, and yeah, Wall Street got heavy into the act. A lot of folks refinanced, took the money now, all that money, spend it now, 

spend it wow, and hey, this kid who just graduated from high school said, I think I'll skip college and go work for a mortgage firm, because they are hiring...And he was happy, and, yes, they were.

Until, Kabooooom!!!!!!

Just like uncle Bill had diagnosed. Actually uncle Bill knew nothing. He thought the downfall had to do with all this Federal Regulation, and high taxation. But uncle Bill could really barbeque well. He's a fun guy. In a different time he might have been Buffalo Bill, and he might have created a great wild west type of show, that BTW featured a lot of indigent Americans, some of whom were great Chiefs in their day.

 

 

Peace!

 

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10 hours ago, TheOldBarn said:

what Olivaw said mysteriously didn't come through when I quoted it.

 

 

 

That's because Olivaw's post was itself a quote and they do not automatically embed.

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housing boom had more to do with a shortage of labor , no one could build a new home fast enough  and people that sold their homes could not move on and the system got clogged

 

owning a home is a dying trend,  still going to be a good market for it,  but nothing like 1990 2005

 

I bet if I blotted my face and rolled it over a loan application for a new car I could get one

 

I think they re established the game someplace else

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