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laripu

What it's all about

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I've been thinking about this for a long time. I'm certain you all have been too and maybe have come to the same conclusion.

 

There are two pieces of evidence, taken together with all the bits and pieces we've learned from media, especially Rachel Maddow. Here they are:

 

1. The Trump-Russia Dossier.

2. Igor Panarin.

 

Not every detail of the dossier needs to be true. Mueller's team, and Comey's team before Mueller, have verified many details. The takeaway is the stick: Russia has compromising material on Donald Trump, which they will reveal if he didn't play their game. The carrot is money: if he plays along, Trump business interests will make many millions, perhaps billions.

 

I wrote "their game" above. That's #2, the work of Igor Panarin. He's a brilliant Russian professor who started his career with the KGB, and still works with the Russian foreign ministry, training diplomats on information warfare. Yes: warfare.

 

Panarin's big idea is that the United States has so many divisive cracks that it will fall apart. He predicted civil war in 2008 followed by a collapse of the US by 2010. Obviously that didn't happen, but that's a failure of the timing of the idea, they believe, not of the substance of the idea. 

 

Putin's big idea is to help this along by exacerbating the divisions. Trump is one tool, the wedge by which the cracks will be widened. Social media is another tool. Even if the United States doesn't split, the Trump tool weakens our economy and our foreign influence, and mightily decreases the average level of satisfaction with the federal government (already tea partied down to a big negative). If Russia cannot return to pre-eminence in its own merits, it can do so be dragging down the United States. This idea I've been calling, for decades "I'm taller because you're shorter". I hate it.

 

Trump is following orders from Moscow, to decrease America's influence in the world, and therefore increase Russia's.

 

Trump's actions on trade, and on military alliances, on international cooperation, and his open and ugly disrespect for long-held American traditions, all confirm my feelings. The separation of children from their refugee parents disgusts me. The naked corruption is almost too much to bear.

 

All this will eventually be comfirmed by Mueller and his team, and will be denied by Trump. Who will America believe? By how much will we be weakened? In ten years, will we still have a country?

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Since he took office, Trump's presidency  has been divisive and disturbing.    But since his disruptive performance at the G7 summit, it has become even easier to believe that:

22 hours ago, laripu said:

Trump is following orders from Moscow, to decrease America's influence in the world, and therefore increase Russia's.

 

In the 8 years leading up to Trump, goaded by constant hammering from the Right Wing Noise Machine, our nation was never so divided since the years leading up to the Civil War.  Now, over a year into his presidency, the situation is even more tense.  Liberals and many others are constantly appalled at his callousness, his antics and blunders.  While his base enthusiastically approves of the same behavior as being strong, dominant and confident. 

 

Looking at NHB, Trump's base seems wildly joyful at his blunt renunciation of most of the G7 heads of state.   Like the lone Italian dissenter, they are in total accord with their leader that Russia should be, once again included in a renewed G8.  Trump's supporters rejoice that finally, we have a strong leader who will not be hoodwinked ...  Much to the dismay of at least half the Nation.

 

It appears that, for Trump, the deal-breaker was the G7's unanimity in opposing Russia as a member.  More evidence of Trump's obeisance to whatever power they have over him.

 

Trump's eagerness for a North Korean summit at Singapore, has given Kim Jong Un new international credibility and respect, with no real assurances of North Korean nuclear disarmament.  Trump has already given away a lot to gain the unlikely.   He may give away more by the time the meeting is over.  But again, his followers are rejoicing that Trump achieved this meeting, never guessing that there might have been a good reason his predecessors denied North Korea the prestigious opportunity ...  Agreements with NK tend not to stick.  Trump brags that his predecessors "failed" and his base echoes that boast.

 

While Panarin is correct that the US is a badly fractured society, we are not nearly as neatly divided as the slave states and the free states before the Civil War.  Liberals and the Conservatives who hate them, are separated and divided geographically.

 

Compare this:

Image result for map of red and blue states 2018
 
 
            With this:
            There's no relationship.
06 29 Russian Panarin Map

 

To me, Panarin's map seems more like wishful thinking than anything else.  How is this vision to be achieved?  Who will preside over the dismemberment?

 

But the Russian (dis)information war against the US has already done us much harm.  Whether it can topple us, remains to be seen.

 

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On 6/11/2018 at 1:44 PM, bludog said:

While Panarin is correct that the US is a badly fractured society, 

 

- snip -

 

On 6/11/2018 at 1:44 PM, bludog said:

 

To me, Panarin's map seems more like wishful thinking than anything else.  How is this vision to be achieved?  Who will preside over the dismemberment?

 

But the Russian (dis)information war against the US has already done us much harm.  Whether it can topple us, remains to be seen.

 

Panarin wouldn't have to be 100% correct for some if his ideas to become partly accepted. He is an important figure in Russia.

 

Nevertheless, it does appear that Trump is being used to diminish American power and influence in the world. Isn't the unilaterally announced cessation is joint military exercises with our allies Japan and South Korea an indication of that?

 

Isn't Trump's video real estate pitch to Kim Jong Un the "carrot"? And secrets of the dossier the "stick"?

 

And if American power and influence is diminished, who steps into the vacuum unimpeded? China is already there, so Russia is the main beneficiary. Even if Panarin's predicted split never occurs, reduced American power is still in Russia's interest. 

 

I still think Trump is an employee of Russia. When this comes out, he must be impeached and convicted. His allies in the House must also be fully discredited.

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I wonder what we'll hear from Cohen when he spills his guts to Mueller's team.

 

They've reconstituted documents he shredded, decrypted encrypted messages, and deemed non-privileged communication that Cohen claimed was covered by attorney-client privilege.

 

I'll bet Cohen's wife is telling him something like "don't be a chump, dump Trump" - but probably less rhymey. :)

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15 hours ago, laripu said:

I wonder what we'll hear from Cohen when he spills his guts to Mueller's team.

 

They've reconstituted documents he shredded, decrypted encrypted messages, and deemed non-privileged communication that Cohen claimed was covered by attorney-client privilege.

 

That has to be a treasure-trove of damning information.  And now Manafort has been jailed ...  Probably for the rest of his life if he doesn't strike a deal.

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On 6/10/2018 at 2:01 PM, laripu said:

 

 

Panarin's big idea is that the United States has so many divisive cracks that it will fall apart. He predicted civil war in 2008 followed by a collapse of the US by 2010. Obviously that didn't happen, but that's a failure of the timing of the idea, they believe, not of the substance of the idea. 

 

Putin's big idea is to help this along by exacerbating the divisions. Trump is one tool, the wedge by which the cracks will be widened. Social media is another tool. Even if the United States doesn't split, the Trump tool weakens our economy and our foreign influence, and mightily decreases the average level of satisfaction with the federal government (already tea partied down to a big negative). If Russia cannot return to pre-eminence in its own merits, it can do so be dragging down the United States. This idea I've been calling, for decades "I'm taller because you're shorter". I hate it.

 

 

 

It's not just Panarin's big idea, it's the story of the last three decades of Republican strategists. And I would toss in the NRA, as well as Big Oil, Big Coal, and yes, even Big natural gas extraction. You are so right to call out this constant attempt to create division. And there is this game they call legalized Capital Flight which works its magic best regarding the exploitation of natural resources. You know, Capital Flight, when coal is no longer viable, and all the economics that came about during its hay day ups and leaves. And they try their best to make the point that there can never be any true convergence in those regions, whereby the poor do not stay poor, and the worker, and the natural environment are the things that should mean by far the most important things to all!

 

Great points Laripu! You help to point out the most disturbing points regarding Trumpism, and ooh, so much more. Here is a great non-profit news gathering site - www.truthout.org

 

Peace!

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18 hours ago, TheOldBarn said:

Here is a great non-profit news gathering site - www.truthout.org

 

It's an interesting progressive site, but not perfect, as no news source is perfect. A good supplement, though. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truthout#Controversies

 

My current favorite for smart analysis is Rachel Maddow. For sheer argumentative feistyness, I like Chris Cuomo at the same time on CNN.

 

Of course, Hannity is good -- for me to poop on! 🐕💩😜

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Trump may be Putin's best employee.

 

America's influence in the world will greatly diminish as we trash human rights by caging children who have been brought here.... and then abandon the UN Human rights council.

 

America's economy will be wrecked with retaliation from foreign countries due to his ill-advised trade wars; among them the insane $200 billion new tariffs he plans to impose on China.

 

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