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Phoenix68

Back, Before The Average-Teabagger Could Read....

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Consumer Confidence JUMPS To 90.9!!!
July 29, 2014


"U.S. consumers are more confident about the economy than they have been in nearly seven years.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its confidence index rose to 90.9 in July from an upwardly revised 86.4 in June. The July reading is the highest since October 2007, two months before the Great Recession officially began.

It was the third straight increase in the index. Economists said that strong job growth has helped boost consumers' assessment of current conditions and also improved their outlook on jobs and the economy.

"Americans felt a heck of a lot more confident in July," said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. She said that part of the confidence boost likely came from declining gas prices.

Conference Board economist Lynn Franco said that the improvements in consumers' confidence and expectations about the future indicate that the recent strengthening in overall economic growth should continue in the second half of the year.

Confidence has BEEN rising since bottoming in February 2009 at 25.3. The index is now well above last year's average of 72.3 and with July's gain has now returned a level above 90, where it often hovered before the recession.

Consumers' attitudes are closely watched because their spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

For July, consumer assessment of the labor market improved with those saying that jobs were plentiful increasing to 15.9 percent, up from 14.6 percent.

Consumers' expectations about the future were also more optimistic with those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increasing to 19.1 percent, up from 16.3 percent in June."

 

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/07/29/us-consumer-confidence-rises-to-0-in-july-strongest-reading-since-october-2007.html

 

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Wall $treet UP On GDP Data!!!!
July 30, 2014

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"U.S. stocks were boosted Wednesday by some bulli$h earning$ and a read on second-quarter economic growth that came in much stronger than expected, overshadowing a weak report on the labor market.

Gross domestic product grew at a 4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, above the 3 percent rate that had been expected and a sharp reversal from the weather-impacted first quarter, when the economy contracted a revised 2.1 percent.

Twitter Inc surged on heavy volume, jumping 25 percent to $48.25 in its biggest one-day advance ever after reporting that monthly active users had risen a better-than-expected 24 percent in the second quarter. The social networking company also gave a revenue forecast above forecasts.

"It all looks good today. Earnings have been decent and the GDP number surprised everybody for sure. In this rate environment, the market isn't expensive and we're still finding good values," said Gary Bradshaw, portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas.

The results bolstered support for Internet and other social media stocks, assuaging concerns the group is overpriced. Facebook Inc (FB.O), which also posted strong results this quarter, rose 1 percent to $74.48. LinkedIn Corp (LNKD.N) rose 2.4 percent to $185."

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/markets-usa-stocks/wall-st-up-on-gdp-data-twitter-has-biggest-jump-ever-idINKBN0FZ1M420140730

 

 

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On 1/22/2018 at 1:26 PM, Phoenix68 said:
 

 

 

Government jobs paid with borrowed fiat currency (easy solution for hermit nation problems) that's why a lot of gov workers were taking an early retirement and moving to survival camp areas etc.

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On 1/22/2018 at 12:03 PM, Phoenix68 said:

"On Tuesday, Golden State small businesses and their employees got some great news: two of the state’s largest insurers will have to give them over $36 million in insurance rebates because of an Obamacare consumer protection.

The health law forces insurers to spend at least 80 percent of the premiums they charge on paying for actual medical services, rather than administrative overhead or profits.

The graph slopes will start changing for the worse soon

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15 minutes ago, Chongo said:

Government jobs paid with borrowed fiat currency (easy solution for hermit nation problems) that's why a lot of gov workers were taking an early retirement and moving to survival camp areas etc.

 

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"Hiring in low-wage jobs like retail and fast food have been plentiful in recent years, but that's changing now.

Middle class employment is on the upswing, thanks to the strengthening economy.


These are jobs that pay about $770 a week: Think manufacturing, sales, transportation and construction.

This employment category has been expanding since 2013, according to Robert Mellman, senior U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase.

And the trend should continue. "The mix of jobs is improving," said Ryan Sweet, director at Moody's Analytics, which found that growth in mid-wage jobs has accelerated to an average of 1.5% in 2014, from 1% for the two years prior. "As the economy begins to grow consistently above its potential, we will see more middle class jobs being created."

 

 

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"Russia canceled its third ruble bond auction in a row as U.S. and European Union sanctions drive the nation’s borrowing costs to the highest levels since March.

The Finance Ministry pulled tomorrow’s sale, citing “unfavorable market conditions” in a statement on its website. The yield on Russia’s 10-year bonds rose six basis points to reach 9.72 percent, the highest since March 14. The rate on the notes increased 109 basis points since a day before a Malaysian passenger jet crashed in Ukraine on July 17.

The U.S. and EU last week expanded sanctions against Russia for what they see as President Vladimir Putins destabilizing role in Ukraine. Switzerland added new people and companies to its list of sanctions today. Russia has now axed 11 auctions since the start of the year and voided four more after bidders sought higher yields than the ministry was prepared to offer."

 

 

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Dollar Ri$e$ Vs. Euro
August 5, 2014


"The dollar strengthened versus the euro before data today that analysts forecast will add to evidence that U.S. GROWTH is gathering pace, boosting the appeal of American a$$et$ versus those in Europe.

“The economic recovery in the U.S. means yield differentials are working in favor of the dollar,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, head of global currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. “We are bullish on the dollar.”

 

 

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"U.S. services sector activity hit an 8-1/2-year high last month and factory orders surged in June, bolstering expectations of solid economic growth in the third quarter.

The Institute for Supply Management said on Tuesday its services index rose to 58.7, the highest level since December 2005, from 56.0 in June, with new orders reaching their highest level since August 2005.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods increased 1.1 percent after a 0.6 percent decline in May. Economists had forecast new orders received by factories rising only 0.6 percent.

Manufacturing is expanding strongly, helping to keep the economy on solid ground. A survey last Friday showed new orders at the nation's factories surged in July."

 

 

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"Extending unemployment insurance during the recession didn’t just give the unemployed some extra income, but actually prevented millions from being foreclosed on, according to a new study from Joanne W. Hsu, David A. Matsa, and Brian T. Melzer.

Given that different states have different amounts they’ll pay out in unemployment benefits — in 2011 it ranged from $6,000 in Mississippi to $28,000 in Massachusetts — the researchers looked at what impact more generous benefits had on mortgage delinquency. They found that for every $1,000 extra in maximum benefits, the likelihood that an unemployed worker’s mortgage would go into delinquency declines by 25 basis points. Getting benefits for a longer period has a similar effect, as each additional week decreases the chance of delinquency by 34 basis points. “Based on this variety of tests, we conclude that the estimated effect of UI generosity is causal,” they write, meaning that bigger checks reduce the chances of going into delinquency directly.

They also found that the effect isn’t just a temporary forestalling of an inevitable foreclosure, but that it has a lasting impact on keeping people in their homes."

 

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Home Building HEATS UP!!!
August 19, 2014


"Home building took off in July as builders broke ground on new homes at their fastest pace of the year.

Housing starts rose 15.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.1 million, the Census Bureau said Tuesday. The previous estimate for June also was revised up by 52,000 to 945,000.

July's home building rate solidly beat economists' median forecast of 965,000 and was the strongest since November. Last month's pace came in slightly ahead of April's 1.06 million rate, the only other month this year when starts' annual rate cracked the 1 million mark.


Single-family home building also increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 656,000 -- also the fastest pace this year.

Meanwhile, building permits, a sign of future construction plans, were issued at a 1.1 million annual rate, the fifth month this year that new permits topped 1 million in a month. Last year, permits averaged 990,000 a month. Permits for single-family homes alone also improved slightly from June."

 

 

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"Consumer prices grew last month at their slowest pace since February, as lower energy costs offset higher price tags for food and shelter, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

The figures were in line with economists' expectations and, at least for now, should ease worries that accelerating inflation could cause problems for the economic recovery.

Concerns about rising inflation could lead the Fed to start raising rock-bottom interest rates sooner.

But with both inflation measures at or below the central bank's annual target level, Fed policymakers are unlikely to signal any major shift from plans to hold off raising rates until next year."

 

 

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August 26, 2014


"Orders for U.S. durable goods jumped in July by the most on record as bookings surged for commercial aircraft. Demand for business equipment eased after the biggest gain in seven months.

Bookings for all goods meant to last at least three years rose 22.6 percent, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. A U.K. air show helped spark a 318 percent jump in plane orders, the most since January 2011. Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.5 percent last month after a June increase of 5.4 percent that was the strongest since November.

Prospects that demand will be sustained are giving companies reason to make larger investments in their operations. Persistent job growth that keeps households spending, along with a pickup in overseas markets, would help provide an added boost for manufacturers.

“When you get past the volatility of the aircraft, what you’re seeing is continued firming in core business spending,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The underlying trend here is ongoing moderate pace” of capital investment, he said.

The July gain in durables orders also reflected increased demand for automobiles. Bookings for motor vehicles climbed by the most since August 2009.

Monthly job gains that are on pace for their best year since 1999 will provide the wherewithal for increased consumer spending. Employers have added an average 230,000 to payrolls a month so far this year. Economists forecast an average 220,000 jobs on average will be added through year-end, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey conducted Aug. 8-13."

 

 

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August 26, 2014


"Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly climbed in August to the highest level in almost seven years, reinforcing signs of a strengthening outlook for the second half of 2014.

The Conference Board’s sentiment gauge rose to 92.4, the highest since October 2007, from a revised 90.3 a month earlier, the New York-based private research group said today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a decline to 89.

Americans are finding more reasons to be upbeat about their prospects for the rest of the year as recent reports pointed to a pickup in the job market and stock prices advanced to records. Stronger sentiment will also help underpin consumer spending, which makes up almost 70 percent of the economy.

“Consumer confidence can sustain these high levels and even build on it a little,” Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, said before the report. “The key driver is the labor market, and the numbers there have been showing an improvement.”

Estimates of 71 economists in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 85 to 94 after a previously reported July reading of 90.9. The gauge averaged 96.8 during the last expansion and 53.7 during the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009."

 

 

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U.S. Second-Quarter Growth
KICKED-A$$!!!!!
August 28, 2014
 

"The U.S. economy rebounded more strongly than initially thought in the second quarter with more of the growth being driven by domestic demand and less by restocking by businesses.


Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.2 percent annual rate instead of the previously reported 4.0 percent pace, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, reflecting upward revisions to business spending and exports.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 298,000 last week. It was the second week of consecutive declines in initial claims and underscored the strengthening labor market fundamentals.

The composition of growth in the second quarter was even more encouraging, with the sources of growth broad-based.

Domestic demand increased at a brisk 3.1 percent rate, instead of the previously reported 2.8 percent pace. It was the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010 and suggested the recovery was becoming more durable after output slumped in the first quarter because of an unusually cold winter.

Third-quarter growth estimates range as high as a 3.6 percent rate."

 

 

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"Manufacturing expanded in August at the fastest pace in three years as orders grew by the most in a decade, showing U.S. factories will help power the economy into the third quarter.

The Institute for Supply Management's index unexpectedly climbed to 59, the highest level since March 2011, from July's 57.1, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported Tuesday. Readings greater than 50 indicate growth. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 57.

A drive to update plants and equipment is propelling gains in business investment that will probably keep American factories busy even as consumer spending shows signs of cooling. Better wage growth could broaden household purchases beyond automobiles and help sustain the pickup in manufacturing, which makes up about 12 percent of the economy.

The gain in manufacturing was "so broad-based," Bradley Holcomb, the ISM survey chairman, said on a conference call with reporters. There is not one particular driver, "it's just sort of a continuation of the trend that we've had since January."

 

 

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"New orders for U.S. factory goods jumped in July and automobile sales in August were unexpectedly strong, offering further signs of strength in the manufacturing sector.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday new orders for manufactured goods increased a record 10.5 percent on robust demand for transportation equipment. June's orders were revised to show a 1.5 percent increase instead of the previously reported 1.1 percent rise.

Orders excluding the volatile transportation category slipped 0.8 percent in July. But that followed a 1.4 percent increase the prior month, leaving the overall trend positive for manufacturing activity.

Separate reports from automakers suggested August sales were set to reach volumes not seen since before the 2007-2009 recession, as Ford Motor Co., Chrysler Group and Nissan Motor Co. easily beat analysts' estimates."

 

 

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"After a week of mostly positive economic news, analysts have forecast that the August jobs report being released Friday will show a seventh straight month of solid gains.

Economists predict that the government's report will show that employers added 220,000 jobs in August, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in July.

The Labor Department will issue the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

Employers have added an average of 230,000 jobs this year, up from an average of 194,000 in 2013. The increased hiring has boosted consumers' confidence and should support healthy growth for the second half of this year."

 

 

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"Sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged in August and hit their highest level in more than six years, offering confirmation that the housing recovery remains on course.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales jumped 18.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 units. That was the highest level since May 2008 and marked the second straight month of gains.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales rising to only a 430,000-unit pace last month."

 

 

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"American factories received more orders for machinery, communications gear and electrical equipment in August as an improving economy gave companies the confidence to expand.

Growing sales paced by demand for automobiles and housing are prompting companies to invest in new equipment and hire more workers, which will give the world’s largest economy a boost in the second half of the year.

“It’s very encouraging that businesses are starting to ramp up spending,” said Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “Demand has been good, and improving. We’re getting to the point where companies are going to invest both for replacement and for growth.”

 

 

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"The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years in the second quarter, with all sectors contributing to the jump in output in a bullish signal for the remainder of the year.

 

The Commerce Department on Friday raised its estimate of gross domestic product to show the economy expanded at a 4.6 percent annual rate. That was in line with Wall Street's expectations.

The best performance since the fourth quarter of 2011 reflected a faster pace of business spending and sturdier export growth than previously estimated.

But consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was unrevised as stronger healthcare outlays were offset by weaknesses in recreation and durable goods spending.

With domestic demand increasing at its fastest pace since 2010, the economic recovery appeared more durable after growth slumped in the first quarter because of an unusually cold winter.

So far, economic data such as manufacturing, trade and housing suggest that much of the second-quarter momentum spilled over into the third quarter. Growth estimates for the July-September quarter range as high as a 3.6 percent pace.

The strong growth pace and domestic demand growth help to explain the robust job gains during the quarter, as well as the sharp decline in the unemployment rate.

When measured from the income side, the economy grew at a robust 5.2 percent pace, revised up from the previously reported 4.7 percent rate."

 

 

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"President Barack Obama’s plan to extend health coverage to millions of poor Americans remains highly contentious, yet it is gaining momentum among several initially reluctant states where financial pragmatism is trumping ideology.

Up to a dozen states, including several led by Republicans, could move forward with plans to expand coverage under Medicaid after the November elections. They take their cue from Pennsylvania and other states that have won Washington's approval to add commercial innovations to the 50-year-old government program to make it more palatable to conservatives.

Obama's original idea of using tax money to expand Medicaid has long been a hot button for Republicans who portray the whole Obamacare healthcare overhaul as a form of socialism encroaching on American values of free enterprise and self-reliance. Texas Governor Rick Perry once said expanding Medicaid would be similar to "adding a thousand people to the Titanic.”

But two things have led to a change of heart for some Republican politicians.

Most of the 27 states that are already expanding the program have begun to reap billions in federal subsidies for insurers, hospitals and healthcare providers, putting politicians elsewhere under intense pressure to follow suit.

As demonstrated by Pennsylvania's deal with Washington, the Obama administration has also proved willing to accept tweaks that give the private sector a greater role in providing healthcare and place new responsibilities on beneficiaries."

 

 

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Unemployment = 5.9%!!!!
October 3, 2014


"American companies are hiring again at healthy pace, adding 248,000 jobs in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent, the first time it had been below 6 percent since July 2008.

The strong report was likely to buoy the outlook of economists who had worried the post-recession recovery was being sidetracked. Those fears were prompted by the government‘s earlier report on Sept. 5 that fewer jobs were added in August than in any month so far this year.

The pace of job creation in September, which was above many economists’ expectations, signified a return to the 200,000 level, a mark that had been surpassed each month since midwinter until the August lull.

But even the August numbers weren’t as bad as originally thought. The government made revisions that showed 180,000 jobs were added in August. Originally it said just 142,000 workers were added to payrolls."

 

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