Jump to content

the guy who got the trump win correct;trump will be impeached


evince
 Share

Recommended Posts

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%E2%80%98prediction-professor%E2%80%99-who-called-trump%E2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

Few prognosticators predicted a Donald Trump victory ahead of Tuesday night. Polls showed Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead, and much of America (chiefly the media) failed to anticipate the wave of pro-Trump support that propelled him to victory. But a Washington, D.C.-based professor insisted that Trump was lined up for a win — based on the idea that elections are “primarily a reflection on the performance of the party in power.”

Allan Lichtman uses a historically based system of what he calls “keys” to predict election results ahead of time. The keys are explained in-depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016.” In our conversations in September and October, he outlined how President Obama's second term set the Democrats up for a tight race, and his keys tipped the balance in Trump's favor, even if just barely.

At the end of our September conversation, Lichtman made another call: That if elected, Trump would eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence — someone who establishment Republicans know and trust.

“I'm going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based on a system, it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down the line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”

So while Republican voters clearly came home before Nov. 8 — network exit polls show 90 percent of GOP voters cast ballots for Trump — it's less clear that the party leadership is on board. (Lichtman actually isn't the only person to predict a Trump impeachment; this morning, the New York Times's David Brooks suggested a Trump impeachment or resignation was “probably” in the cards sometime within the next year.)

It's worth noting that Lichtman's predictions use very different methods than pollsters and data-based prognosticators. Some statisticians take issue with the structure of his system, a set of 13 true/false questions, saying that the binary nature of his keys leads to what's called “overfitting,” which is basically creating a system that fits the data but has little statistical significance. But Lichtman counters by saying that the system has correctly predicted every election since 1984 (specifically, his predictions have picked the next president correctly in all of those elections but 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the popular vote). And Lichtman has his own criticism for data-based predictions.

“Polls are not predictors,” he said Friday in an email. “They are snapshots that simulate an election. They are abused and misused as predictors. Even the analysis of polls by Nate Silver and others which claimed a probable Clinton victory with from more than 70 percent to 99 percent certainty are mere compilations that are no better than the underlying polls.”

And he has particular disdain for prediction systems that assign a likelihood of winning.

“For all his acclaim, Nate Silver is only a clerk, not a scientific analyst,” Lichtman said.

As for the real reason for Trump's win, Lichtman says the blame can't be put on Hillary Clinton or her campaign — rather, he says, it was decided by the larger forces that shape American politics.

“The Democrats cannot rebuild by pointing fingers at Hillary Clinton and her campaign, which as the Keys demonstrated, were not the root cause of her defeat,” he said. “The Democrats can rehabilitate themselves only by offering an inspiring progressive alternative to Republican policies and building a grass-roots movement.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could see it happening. The republican politicians don't want him any more than the democrat politicians do. The republicans and the democrats are just different parts of the same "good ol boys" club. Trump isn't a member of the club and he isn't welcome.

 

Both republicans and democrats are going to do their best to make certain that the voter doesn't have alternatives like trump. Trump is starting on a GREAT (great for us) note. He doesn't owe anything to either party or the press. They all tried to screw him.

 

Of course they've all been screwing us for more than a hundred years so I hope Trump is getting ready to do some screwing on our behalf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

... then open investigations into the activities of the Clintons and the Obama administration.

Actually, assuming Obama-lama-ding-dong doesn't pardon The Hildabeast, part of me thinks the best way to start "healing the divide" is to do something similar to what Ford did to get the country past Watergate. State, that while he believes the way Hitlery handled classified information crossed the line and become criminal, the country doesn't need to see a former Secretary of State stand trial and Washington has more pressing things to do than spend more time and money on investigations.

 

It, at least for a while, disarms the dems in Congress, appeases her supporters and shows him "putting the country first."

 

Do I think the bitch committed a crime and should be tried? Yes. But I think not going after her creates more political capital.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, assuming Obama-lama-ding-dong doesn't pardon The Hildabeast, part of me thinks the best way to start "healing the divide" is to do something similar to what Ford did to get the country past Watergate. State, that while he believes the way Hitlery handled classified information crossed the line and become criminal, the country doesn't need to see a former Secretary of State stand trial and Washington has more pressing things to do than spend more time and money on investigations.

 

It, at least for a while, disarms the dems in Congress, appeases her supporters and shows him "putting the country first."

 

Do I think the bitch committed a crime and should be tried? Yes. But I think not going after her creates more political capital.

 

 

Disagree. This isn't about "political capital". That's been the problem with Republicans the last 30 years. Republicans were so damn worried about their "political capital" that we ended up with Obama in office for 8 years and nearly had Hillary in office. So I disagree with you completely. The rest of the country needs to have their eyes opened about the lies they've been fed by the MSM and the Democrat Party AND the GOPe where the Clintons and their mafia are concerned. You want Trump to make inroads into those people. Prove to them that Hillary is just as bad as people like me have been saying for 30 years. OPEN THEIR EYES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Disagree. This isn't about "political capital". That's been the problem with Republicans the last 30 years. Republicans were so damn worried about their "political capital" that we ended up with Obama in office for 8 years and nearly had Hillary in office. So I disagree with you completely. The rest of the country needs to have their eyes opened about the lies they've been fed by the MSM and the Democrat Party AND the GOPe where the Clintons and their mafia are concerned. You want Trump to make inroads into those people. Prove to them that Hillary is just as bad as people like me have been saying for 30 years. OPEN THEIR EYES.

Still peddling your Hillary obsession?

Trump only gonna make inroads if he delivers on his promises. Judging by his policy position he ain't gonna do squat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still peddling your Hillary obsession?

 

I'm wondering why you care about my *obsession* at all?

 

You aren't on the side of those who support Trump or conservatives, so one would think you want what you consider wacky CT to be our obsession.

 

If you think its so nutty, why wouldn't you just encourage me to continue obsessing on it and discredit myself?

 

Why go to all this trouble to shut me down on this topic, Sixteen?

 

Unless you know she's guilty but hope to be able to cast your first ever vote for her in 2020. :D

It's sad that hilda and trump was the "best" that we could put forth

 

Sorry, but Trump is not so bad. You see the policy agenda he's put forward and he is quite the bulldog? Who would you have substituted?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...