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Why I Was Right About The Presidential Election

November 9, 2016 by Andrew Hall 1 Comment
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Don’t bet against stupid, my friends.

Well, the election is over. At the time I’m writing this there are a few states that are still up in the air. New Hampshire, Michigan, and one district in Nebraska have yet to report whether they went for soon to be President Trump or soon to be Prisoner Clinton. In the big picture, those results are unimportant.

Donald Trump currently has 289 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 218. Nate Silver over at 538 called the election for Trump at 2:52 AM. I went to bed at 1:30 AM. At that time it seemed to me that it could take a while for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona to come in. I was wrong about that.

I was correct on who was going to win the election, however.

Horribly correct.

If you have been listening to the Naked Diner podcast, you have heard me state numerous times that Trump was going to win the election. It was an unpopular opinion. The Naked Diner is an interview show, and I didn’t want to lay out all my reasons why I believed that way because I feel the show is about the guest. It’s not about me.

And now I’m going to tell you why I believed Donald Trump was going to win the Presidency. For a period during the primaries I thought he’d lose. Once he dispatched his rivals, I came to the creeping realization that he was going to win it all.

I’ll break down the reasons.

After a two-term President, the next candidate of the President’s party is at a disadvantage.

USA Today ran this article Hillary Clinton’s test: A third straight Democratic term just before she announced her candidacy back in 2015. Bill Clinton was aware of the daunting job ahead.

“It’s hard for any party to hang on to the White House for 12 years, and it’s a long road,” Bill Clinton said in an interview with
Town & Country
magazine. “A thousand things could happen.”

This shouldn’t have crippled her campaign. However, she had many other factors going against her.

Democratic Presidents have only been elected under very special circumstances in my lifetime.

I want to be blunt about this.

  • Jimmy Carter was victorious over Gerald Ford partly because Ford pardoned Richard Nixon.
  • Bill Clinton was originally elected President because a third party candidate (Ross Perot) siphoned off votes from Bush the Elder.
  • Barrack Obama won against John McCain because the financial world was going to hell. America was desperate and voted for someone with a fresh face.

Once Bill Clinton and Obama won their first term, it was far more likely for them to win a second term. Sitting Presidents are statistically more likely to win a second term.

Election 2016 can be seen (ironically) as America going back to form and electing a Republican.

Winners Win

Many of my liberal friends during this election discounted the fact that Trump is a winner. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like the guy or his politics, Laughing in Disbelief is filled with anti-Trump jokes, memes, and Poes.

However, my personal feelings have nothing to do with the fact that Donald Trump is a winner when it comes to getting elected.

I have stated this several times, but please hear me out. Before World War 2 officially started in Europe Adolf Hitler achieved what many considered unimaginable. He became de facto ruler of Germany. Germany’s industrial heart, the Rhineland, was demilitarized. This demilitarization was a condition of the treaty ending World War I. Hitler sent German troops in regardless of that fact and, the Allies did nothing about it. Hitler absorbed Austria into Germany. He then absorbed a part of Czechoslovakia known as the Sudentland. Afterward, he gobbled up the rest of the country. All of that was accomplished before the war.

He was a monster. But he knew how to win.

Hitler started losing when he attempted to achieve historically the impossible (OK, not impossible but really really hard) like invading Russia. The Swedes had done it and failed. The French tried it, and it was one of the events that destroyed Napoleon’s regime.

I felt Trump winning the US election was well within the historically plausible. Trump winning 270 electoral votes was closer to Hitler gobbling up little Austria than the invasion of Russia.

Losers lose

Hillary Clinton lost to Barrack Obama and almost lost to Bernie Sanders.

Think about that for a minute.

She had the Clinton political machine behind her. That means she had all of Bill’s connections as well as the relationships she fostered as a senator, and she still lost to Obama. You can say that’s because of misogyny and that may be true.

But put on your skeptic’s hat for a moment.

It doesn’t matter if she lost because of misogyny.

She lost. That’s the relevant point.

She then almost blew winning the nomination to a guy who didn’t take his own candidacy seriously early on. Do you remember that line from Bernie during a debate, America “is sick of hearing about your damn emails.” It turns out that wasn’t true.

Hillary almost lost to a guy who was fighting with one hand tied behind his back.

You may say, “Andy, she won the Senate seat in New York.”

Yeah, New York state is not America.

Losers lose.

I know white people

Before the election of President Obama, I recall mowing my lawn. I lived in the suburbs at the time, and it struck me how weird it was that white people were in charge. After all, we’re driving around minivans and watching crappy reality shows. It’s not a picture of ruthless domination.

After President Obama had got elected, however, the Tea Party was born.

The Tea Party showed me the power of White. White was organized. White was well funded. White was crazy.

Crazy.

I may be white, but I don’t live in a liberal bubble. If you’re white and live in a liberal bubble, then you may be aware of how crazy white America is, but you don’t have the taste of it in your mouth. You can’t gauge it appropriately.

I don’t have that problem.

Republicans are in charge of many states

State governments matter. Before last night Republicans possessed 30 something governor seats and thanks to gerrymandering, many state legislatures. That makes it easier for Republicans to get their message out.

It makes it easier to cheat, too.

I’m not saying that Republicans who held state offices cheated in this election. However, I recognized that if they did want to cheat, they had the infrastructure to do so.

There was a lot of overconfidence on my side of the political fence.

Nemesis follows hubris. The Greeks knew it. That lesson didn’t seem to take with many on the Left. And that meant people didn’t take Donald Trump seriously. I had many conversations on the podcast, on Facebook, and offline where the other person couldn’t wrap their minds around Trump winning so that caused them to “know” he couldn’t win.

I couldn’t help thinking, “A lot of people refused to believe Reagan or Bush the Younger could win, too.”

When I mentioned that sad fact, I heard a lot of special pleading. It’s going to be different this time. For reals.

Oy.

Brexit

I try to follow international politics. I like reading The Economist magazine and cruise around the BBC News site. It was clear that there was an international trend of fear and tribalism infecting entire populations. This wave may not have been powerful enough to elect Trump. With all the other factors added together, I believe it was the thing that killed Hillary’s Presidential dreams.

My other prediction…

I’m pretty sure my insights will win me no friends. I will obtain no new followers on Twitter or get any more money in the Naked Diner Patreon account.

And I don’t give a fuck about that.

I’ve been blogging for years and have very little to show for it. I do it because of compulsion. I was fortunate enough to experience hardship early on in my life. I can’t help myself.

I need to light candles.

I also need to shout into the darkness.

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Interesting read. Maybe Hall doesn't take it far enough. Not only was Hillary campaigning for a proxy third term for the Obama legacy. She was also making a bid for a third term of Her and Bill. So Hillary's cultivation of entitlement and inevitability (conscious or not) didn't play well with a public fed up with the status quo and craving change. And Hillary failed to put forth a powerful economic vision for change at a time when standards of living are falling for most and there is a perceived double standard; With one set of rules for corporations and rich elites and another for the rest of us.

 

Whether one thinks the vision for prosperity that Trump presented had any merit at all (and I don't), it was nevertheless, put forth with conviction, and obviously, a lot of people bought into it. Now for the great disillusioning.

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