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Even Trumps favorite lies are failing him...

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Donald Trump has begun to contemplate the unthinkable: he might lose. At a rally in Florida yesterday, Trump lapsed into an uncharacteristic moment of self-doubt, diverging from his script to wonder aloud whether running for president was a good idea: Ill let you know on the evening of November 8th. And two days earlier, Trump actually uttered the words, if I lose before trailing off.

Nonetheless, Trump continues to repeat his favorite lies with supreme confidence in their effectiveness. In his last few appearances, Trump again claimed that rampant voter fraud ensures a rigged election, that the media is in on the conspiracy to rig the outcome, that Hillary Clinton is physically weaker and sicker than we all think she is, and that Clinton has been allowed to skate on lawbreaking that should have disqualified her from running at all.

New polling from ABC News suggests these lies are failing him.

[The Republicans who want to beat Trump by as much as possible]

The key finding in the new ABC News tracking poll, which finds Clinton leading among likely voters nationally by 50-38, is that affirmative support for Clinton among her supporters, as opposed to a motivator only rooted in dislike for the other side, is growing:



As ABCs polling memo notes, the percentage of Clinton supporters who say their vote will be for her is at a new high, while the percentage of Trump supporters who say the same about him has remained flat. Crucially, this affirmative support can be a stronger motivator to vote. The ABC poll finds something similar on voters enthusiasm about their choice:

Levels of enthusiasm for the candidates, while similar overall, also have followed different trajectories. Fifty-two percent of Clintons supporters now describe themselves as very enthusiastic about their choice, the most to date and up sharply from 36 percent in early September. Among Trump supporters, 49 percent are strongly enthusiastic; he peaked on this measure in late September.

The result of these trends is that Trumps 12-point advantage in strong enthusiasm just after Labor Day is now a (non-significant) 3-point deficit to Clinton. In ABC News/Washington Post polling since 2000, the candidate with more strongly enthusiastic support has won.


[believe Rubio post-Trump at your own risk]


Strong enthusiasm for Trump has flatlined among his supporters, while strong enthusiasm for Clinton is rising among hers. True, this is only one poll. And there are some signs of flagging Dem enthusiasm in the Rust Belt in particular, so we cant be sure of what all this will mean. But a recent Post national poll did turned up something similiar to ABCs findings, showing Clinton with an enthusiasm edge that appears to be driven by flagging enthusiasm for Trump among Republican women. (What on earth could account for that?)



Less than two weeks away from Election Day, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told an audience in Naples, Fla., that he would let them know if he was happy he'd decided to run for president on the evening of Nov. 8. (The Washington Post)

Trumps final fusillade of lies has two key aims. As Trumps own advisers have confirmed, going scorched earth (on her health and supposed lawbreaking) is about depressing enthusiasm and turnout among Clinton voters. And the rigged election nonsense is designed to accomplish the same, by stoking fears of voter intimidation and generally casting a pall a wet blanket of impressions of corruption over the whole process. And of course all of this is also about driving GOP voters into a frenzy of excitement.

But if Trumps strategy is all about dragging Clinton down into the pig slop with him and about generally spraying a fine mist of pig slop over the whole process, to make (some) voters turn away in disgust it looks as if this all may end with Trump floundering around in the pig slop all alone. (And are there any signs that this is boosting GOP voter enthusiasm?)

All this suggests yet another way in which the punditry got this race all wrong. Yes, its true that Clinton is one of two historically unpopular candidates. Yes, she is widely distrusted. Yes, she is a flawed candidate. But this campaign just isnt a race to the bottom, as the cliche has it. One candidate is widely seen as fundamentally lacking in basic decency and fitness for the presidency, while the other just isnt. And increasingly, one is affirmatively preferred by her supporters, to a degree that the other just isnt. This last metric will be important to keep an eye on as we seek to understand whats happening in the races final days.

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your party of High Crimes should investigate Hillary another 30-40 times hoping for a different outcome

Yes, yes - but never ever ever EVER investigate Bush and Cheney for the THIRTEEN EMBASSY ATTACKS on their watch, or the SIXTY PEOPLE WHO DIED.


They just don't fucking matter.


He should have prepared better.. HRC is spot on qualified except for bad marks on emails.

What bad marks?

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Yes, yes - but never ever ever EVER investigate Bush and Cheney for the THIRTEEN EMBASSY ATTACKS on their watch, or the SIXTY PEOPLE WHO DIED.


They just don't fucking matter.




The party of Watergate, Arming Iraq, Arming Iran, Lying to Congress and Arming the Contras, Creating the Taliban, Creating Al-Qaeda, Lying America and its Allies into Iraq and Creating ISIS, Haliburton, Kenny Boy/Enron Trickle Down, Tax Cuts for the Top 1%, Recessions, Depressions, Foxaganda, Hate Radio, Southern Strategy, Racism.....Now denying that the gops constant meddling in the Mideast for their Profits didn't create all this

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