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PROOF: Democrat MANIPULATION/COLLUSION of POLLS !!


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A recent e-mail... from Podesta, instructing NBC to over sample Democrats, in order to make the polls look as though Hillary has a COMMANDING lead...

 

If we can read between the lines, with a few of these polls in hand, and the Media NOT WILLING to TALK ABOUT ANYTHING BUT THESE FRAUDULENT POLLS... the intention being to CONVINCE the public the election is over... BUT nothing could be further from the truth !!

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

 

THESE e-mails are a treasure trove into the SOUL of the Democrat Party... and the LIES, DECEIT, and COLLUSION... which is ALL PART of the CORRUPTION of WASHINGTON...

 

WE NEED TO DRAIN THE SWAMP !!

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New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are
36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents
."

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

I also want to get your Atlas folks to
recommend oversamples for our polling
before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations
so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

-
Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

-
Over-sample the Native American population

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

-
Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old
, and that it
has enough African American and Hispanic voters
to reflect the state.

- On Independents:
Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida
(check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples,
make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with
potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with
ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with
ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

 

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

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If we can read between the lines, with a few of these polls in hand, and the Media NOT WILLING to TALK ABOUT ANYTHING BUT THESE FRAUDULENT POLLS...

 

THESE e-mails are a treasure trove into the SOUL of the Democrat Party...]

Emails are post marked from Russia and have two criminals fingerprints all over them, Assange and Putin.

They are more than likely to have been doctored or completely fabricated. Both criminals want Trump to win.

Interesting you take to heart the word of criminals.

 

Brand new ABC poll ( not run by criminals)

Hillary up by 12.

http://abc7ny.com/politics/clinton-up-by-12-points-over-trump-in-abc-news-tracking-poll/1568931/

 

If you think the serial sex offender can come back from a 12 point deficit in 2 weeks... knock yourself out.

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New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

- Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.

- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

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Not really true, there are a handful of major polling sources, with the Main Stream Media among them... is it shocking that MOST of the polls that have Hillary up big are NBC, CNN, and their ilk?

 

1) With the Democrats instigating the violence at Trump rally's, and THEN talking out against the violence and blaming it on Trump (Proven)

 

2) With Democrats COLLUDING with the Main Stream Media, and the Media IGNORING ANY story that didn't paint Hillary in a positive light (many of them SERIOUS, and even CRIMES), and picking fly crap out to pepper to find things to ATTACK Trump with. (Proven)

 

3) Attacking trump with fake allegations of "Touching and Feeling" women, while IGNORING Bills RAPE, Indecent exposure charges (with a $850K settlement), and getting BJ's by an intern in the white house, getting disbarred over it, and payin a MILLION DOLLAR fine... (FACT)

 

Is it REALLY so hard to believe that they are COOKING the POLLS to?

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Same exact excuse you turds used in 2012 when Obama was up by a few points in October.

How'd that election turn out??

 

You asswipes keep coming up with excuses why you're losing badly and all you have to do is look at your own candidate..a misogynist and serial sex offender.

 

WASHINGTON (WABC) -- Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit lead in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election's legitimacy.

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Same exact excuse you turds used in 2012 when Obama was up by a few points in October.

How'd that election turn out??

 

You asswipes keep coming up with excuses why you're losing badly and all you have to do is look at your own candidate..a misogynist and serial sex offender.

 

WASHINGTON (WABC) -- Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit lead in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election's legitimacy.

 

progressive_threat_meter2.jpg

 

 

New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

- Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.

- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

 

 

 

8b9b61d6e27f3cd4d500110c21529f03e57a2df7

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Not really true, there are a handful of major polling sources, with the Main Stream Media among them... is it shocking that MOST of the polls that have Hillary up big are NBC, CNN, and their ilk?

 

1) With the Democrats instigating the violence at Trump rally's, and THEN talking out against the violence and blaming it on Trump (Proven)

 

2) With Democrats COLLUDING with the Main Stream Media, and the Media IGNORING ANY story that didn't paint Hillary in a positive light (many of them SERIOUS, and even CRIMES), and picking fly crap out to pepper to find things to ATTACK Trump with. (Proven)

 

3) Attacking trump with fake allegations of "Touching and Feeling" women, while IGNORING Bills RAPE, Indecent exposure charges (with a $850K settlement), and getting BJ's by an intern in the white house, getting disbarred over it, and payin a MILLION DOLLAR fine... (FACT)

 

Is it REALLY so hard to believe that they are COOKING the POLLS to?

Why do you keep bringing up Bill Clinton when he's not running?

I know..to try to take the attention away from your serial sex offender. It's not working..Hilary up by 12 with 2 weeks to go.

It's OVER.

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Why do you keep bringing up Bill Clinton when he's not running?

I know..to try to take the attention away from your serial sex offender. It's not working..Hilary up by 12 with 2 weeks to go.

It's OVER.

 

progressive_threat_meter2.jpg

 

 

New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

- Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.

- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

 

 

 

8b9b61d6e27f3cd4d500110c21529f03e57a2df7

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Because Bill and Hillary are ATTACHED at the hip... Bill COMMITTED the RAPES and SEXUAL ASSAULTS, and HILLARY COVERED THEM UP... by ATTACKING, SMEARING and THREATENING the VERY WOMEN she claims to want to PROTECT.

 

There REALLY is NO DIFFERENCE between Bill and Hillary... like TWO SIDES of the SAME CORRUPT COIN !!

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Theory?

 

That is real evidence stupid. REAL.

 

Not some spouting off about Trump kissing her without consent. REAL EVIDENCE you can see,read, and not have to take somebody else's word for.

 

Evidence? Coming from Russia?

Ha ha

EvenKellyanne Conway admitted yesterday on Meet the Press Trump is behind in the polls.

 

And there is proof Trump is lying he "never met any of these women."

Did you forget already?

The People Magazine Reporter

1. Told 6 people Trump molested her at the time she was interviewing him for an article.

Do you think she knew years in advance that he was going to run for president so she made up the story to hurt him inthefuture?

Lol

2. She said right in her article Trump participated with the article.

So how can Trump claim he never met her? Oops.

Proof he lied about this woman...

But you'll give him a pass, right?

Because Bill and Hillary are ATTACHED at the hip... Bill COMMITTED the RAPES and SEXUAL ASSAULTS, and HILLARY COVERED THEM UP... by ATTACKING, SMEARING and THREATENING the VERY WOMEN she claims to want to PROTECT.

 

There REALLY is NO DIFFERENCE between Bill and Hillary... like TWO SIDES of the SAME CORRUPT COIN !!

Your theory is not working. Hillary is running and Bill is old news.. that's why she's way ahead in the polls. Even Kellyanne Conway said so yesterday. Is she lying too?

Roflmao

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Democrats have never been so desperate. Trump will win

How is Trump going to capture the moderate vote if he himself is not even remotely moderate? The moderates always decide who wins the presidency.

I am NOT giving him a pass on any fucking thing. Him knowing her,lying about knowing her, is not evidence of sexual assault. Neither are her friends years later claiming she told them about it proof of anything.

 

This is REAL proof. Project veritas is REAL proof. REAL.

Except that O'Keefe has a history of staging and editing interviews.

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I keep hearing that.

 

Yet to date...I have not seen one of these videos where the context changed after the full video came out can you show me one?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACORN_2009_undercover_videos_controversy

 

s ACORN learned more from its employees of what had taken place, it called the videos "false" and "defamatory".[48][49] A spokesman accused O'Keefe of dubbing the audio on the videos.[73] On September 23, 2009, ACORN filed suit in a Baltimore court against the filmmakers,[74][75] citing "extreme emotional distress" of the ACORN workers and violation of two-party consent recording laws.[76] It later allowed the suit to lapse.[77]

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I am NOT giving him a pass on any fucking thing. Him knowing her,lying about knowing her, is not evidence of sexual assault. Neither are her friends years later claiming she told them about it proof of anything.

 

This is REAL proof. Project veritas is REAL proof. REAL.

Lmao

Veritas is run by a known felon famous for doctoring videos

There doesn't need to be PROOF.

Just like with Cosby. Everyone knows when THAT many women come out and accuse someone with sexual assault, where there's smoke there's fire.

Only DEPLORABLES are trying to spin this away.

68% of Americans believe trump's victims

Cosby and Trump are now in the same basket.

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New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are
36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents
."

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

I also want to get your Atlas folks to
recommend oversamples for our polling
before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations
so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

-
Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

-
Over-sample the Native American population

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

-
Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old
, and that it
has enough African American and Hispanic voters
to reflect the state.

- On Independents:
Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida
(check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples,
make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with
potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with
ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with
ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

 

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

 

Hillary%20Bill%20WH_zpsduvqrkma.jpg

 

Clinton leads Trump, two new polls show

 

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters -- but two new polls diverge on the size of her lead.

 

Clinton is 11 percentage points ahead of Trump, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Sunday.

 

An ABC News/Washington Post poll, meanwhile, pegs her lead at 4 points.

In the NBC poll, Clinton has 48% support compared to 37% for Trump, 7% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% for the Green Party's Jill Stein. In a two-way race, Clinton leads 51% to 41%.

 

The NBC poll shows Trump could have paid a steep price for the "Access Hollywood" tape that showed him bragging about sexually assaulting women, which was followed by nine women claiming specific instances of Trump groping or kissing them without consent.

In a head-to-head with Trump, Clinton leads by 20 points among women -- while Trump is ahead by just 3 points with men.

 

32% say the video disqualified Trump from being president and that he should drop out of the race, while 53% disagree.

 

Clinton's debate performances have helped, too, the NBC poll found. Thirty-one percent of those surveyed said the two debates have made them more likely to vote for Clinton, while 14% say the debates make them more likely to back Trump.

 

The NBC poll shows voters' distaste with Trump doesn't extend to all Republicans: 46% of those polled say they want a Democrats to control Congress, while 44% say they favor a Republican-led Congress.

 

In the ABC poll, meanwhile, Clinton has 47% support to Trump's 43%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%.

 

That's little change from an ABC/Washington Post poll conducted just before the first debate and before the controversy over Trump's taped remarks about sexually assaulting women, which had Clinton's lead at 46% to 44%.

 

However, the poll did find some shifting dynamics in the race. Enthusiasm among Trump supporters is down to 79%, while Clinton's is up to 83% -- erasing the 10-point advantage in that measure that Trump had before the first debate. 68% say Trump probably has made unwanted advances toward women.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/

 

 

 

ABC News: Clinton 52% - Trump 29%

CNN/ORC: Clinton 52% - Trump 39%

Bloomberg: Clinton 52% - Trump 38%

CBS: Clinton 63% - Trump 26%

GWU: Clinton 62% - Trump 27%

 

 

(N=5,000) Average of above 5 Polls

 

Clinton: 281/5 = 56.2%

Trump: 159/5 = 31.8%

 

 

 

Karl Rove is throwing in the towel.

 

In an appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” the Republican strategist said that Donald Trump’s poll numbers are simply too dismal to end in victory on election night.

 

“I don’t see it happening,” Rove told Fox. “If he plays an inside straight, he could get it, but I doubt he’s going to be able to play it.”

 

Rove explained Trump’s electoral vote deficit, swing state by swing state. Mitt Romney only won 206 electoral votes in 2012, and according to Rove’s judgment, Trump can only feel comfortable about 168, with just over two weeks to go before the Nov. 8 election.

 

rump, Rove said, is barely eking out a polling lead in Ohio and Iowa, which Obama won in 2012. But he is also behind in North Carolina and Arizona, states that Romney won. And his deficit in other electoral vote-rich states like Florida is so severe that he is unlikely to pull ahead.

 

“I doubt that in the just over two weeks we’ve got left, conducting the kind of campaign he’s conducting, that he’s going to be able to swing 1 out of every, you know, 10 voters, 1 out of every 12 voters, 1 out of every 15 voters and 1 out of every 6 voters in a state and convert them,” Rove said.

 

Rove is not a man who gives up easily. In 2012, he had an on-air meltdown over whether Romney had won or lost Ohio, insisting in vain that the Republican nominee still had a chance to win the election. Romney lost.

 

 

 

 

 

Hillary%20Bill%20WH_zpsduvqrkma.jpg

 

progressive_threat_meter2.jpg

 

 

New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

- Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.

- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

 

 

 

8b9b61d6e27f3cd4d500110c21529f03e57a2df7

Hillary%20Bill%20WH_zpsduvqrkma.jpg

 

Clinton leads Trump, two new polls show

 

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters -- but two new polls diverge on the size of her lead.

 

Clinton is 11 percentage points ahead of Trump, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Sunday.

 

An ABC News/Washington Post poll, meanwhile, pegs her lead at 4 points.

In the NBC poll, Clinton has 48% support compared to 37% for Trump, 7% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% for the Green Party's Jill Stein. In a two-way race, Clinton leads 51% to 41%.

 

The NBC poll shows Trump could have paid a steep price for the "Access Hollywood" tape that showed him bragging about sexually assaulting women, which was followed by nine women claiming specific instances of Trump groping or kissing them without consent.

In a head-to-head with Trump, Clinton leads by 20 points among women -- while Trump is ahead by just 3 points with men.

 

32% say the video disqualified Trump from being president and that he should drop out of the race, while 53% disagree.

 

Clinton's debate performances have helped, too, the NBC poll found. Thirty-one percent of those surveyed said the two debates have made them more likely to vote for Clinton, while 14% say the debates make them more likely to back Trump.

 

The NBC poll shows voters' distaste with Trump doesn't extend to all Republicans: 46% of those polled say they want a Democrats to control Congress, while 44% say they favor a Republican-led Congress.

 

In the ABC poll, meanwhile, Clinton has 47% support to Trump's 43%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%.

 

That's little change from an ABC/Washington Post poll conducted just before the first debate and before the controversy over Trump's taped remarks about sexually assaulting women, which had Clinton's lead at 46% to 44%.

 

However, the poll did find some shifting dynamics in the race. Enthusiasm among Trump supporters is down to 79%, while Clinton's is up to 83% -- erasing the 10-point advantage in that measure that Trump had before the first debate. 68% say Trump probably has made unwanted advances toward women.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/

 

 

 

ABC News: Clinton 52% - Trump 29%

CNN/ORC: Clinton 52% - Trump 39%

Bloomberg: Clinton 52% - Trump 38%

CBS: Clinton 63% - Trump 26%

GWU: Clinton 62% - Trump 27%

 

 

(N=5,000) Average of above 5 Polls

 

Clinton: 281/5 = 56.2%

Trump: 159/5 = 31.8%

 

 

 

Karl Rove is throwing in the towel.

 

In an appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” the Republican strategist said that Donald Trump’s poll numbers are simply too dismal to end in victory on election night.

 

“I don’t see it happening,” Rove told Fox. “If he plays an inside straight, he could get it, but I doubt he’s going to be able to play it.”

 

Rove explained Trump’s electoral vote deficit, swing state by swing state. Mitt Romney only won 206 electoral votes in 2012, and according to Rove’s judgment, Trump can only feel comfortable about 168, with just over two weeks to go before the Nov. 8 election.

 

rump, Rove said, is barely eking out a polling lead in Ohio and Iowa, which Obama won in 2012. But he is also behind in North Carolina and Arizona, states that Romney won. And his deficit in other electoral vote-rich states like Florida is so severe that he is unlikely to pull ahead.

 

“I doubt that in the just over two weeks we’ve got left, conducting the kind of campaign he’s conducting, that he’s going to be able to swing 1 out of every, you know, 10 voters, 1 out of every 12 voters, 1 out of every 15 voters and 1 out of every 6 voters in a state and convert them,” Rove said.

 

Rove is not a man who gives up easily. In 2012, he had an on-air meltdown over whether Romney had won or lost Ohio, insisting in vain that the Republican nominee still had a chance to win the election. Romney lost.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

- Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.

- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

 

 

 

8b9b61d6e27f3cd4d500110c21529f03e57a2df7

Clinton leads Trump, two new polls show

 

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters -- but two new polls diverge on the size of her lead.

 

Clinton is 11 percentage points ahead of Trump, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Sunday.

 

An ABC News/Washington Post poll, meanwhile, pegs her lead at 4 points.

In the NBC poll, Clinton has 48% support compared to 37% for Trump, 7% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% for the Green Party's Jill Stein. In a two-way race, Clinton leads 51% to 41%.

 

The NBC poll shows Trump could have paid a steep price for the "Access Hollywood" tape that showed him bragging about sexually assaulting women, which was followed by nine women claiming specific instances of Trump groping or kissing them without consent.

In a head-to-head with Trump, Clinton leads by 20 points among women -- while Trump is ahead by just 3 points with men.

 

32% say the video disqualified Trump from being president and that he should drop out of the race, while 53% disagree.

 

Clinton's debate performances have helped, too, the NBC poll found. Thirty-one percent of those surveyed said the two debates have made them more likely to vote for Clinton, while 14% say the debates make them more likely to back Trump.

 

The NBC poll shows voters' distaste with Trump doesn't extend to all Republicans: 46% of those polled say they want a Democrats to control Congress, while 44% say they favor a Republican-led Congress.

 

In the ABC poll, meanwhile, Clinton has 47% support to Trump's 43%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%.

 

That's little change from an ABC/Washington Post poll conducted just before the first debate and before the controversy over Trump's taped remarks about sexually assaulting women, which had Clinton's lead at 46% to 44%.

 

However, the poll did find some shifting dynamics in the race. Enthusiasm among Trump supporters is down to 79%, while Clinton's is up to 83% -- erasing the 10-point advantage in that measure that Trump had before the first debate. 68% say Trump probably has made unwanted advances toward women.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/

 

 

 

ABC News: Clinton 52% - Trump 29%

CNN/ORC: Clinton 52% - Trump 39%

Bloomberg: Clinton 52% - Trump 38%

CBS: Clinton 63% - Trump 26%

GWU: Clinton 62% - Trump 27%

 

 

(N=5,000) Average of above 5 Polls

 

Clinton: 281/5 = 56.2%

Trump: 159/5 = 31.8%

 

 

 

Karl Rove is throwing in the towel.

 

In an appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” the Republican strategist said that Donald Trump’s poll numbers are simply too dismal to end in victory on election night.

 

“I don’t see it happening,” Rove told Fox. “If he plays an inside straight, he could get it, but I doubt he’s going to be able to play it.”

 

Rove explained Trump’s electoral vote deficit, swing state by swing state. Mitt Romney only won 206 electoral votes in 2012, and according to Rove’s judgment, Trump can only feel comfortable about 168, with just over two weeks to go before the Nov. 8 election.

 

rump, Rove said, is barely eking out a polling lead in Ohio and Iowa, which Obama won in 2012. But he is also behind in North Carolina and Arizona, states that Romney won. And his deficit in other electoral vote-rich states like Florida is so severe that he is unlikely to pull ahead.

 

“I doubt that in the just over two weeks we’ve got left, conducting the kind of campaign he’s conducting, that he’s going to be able to swing 1 out of every, you know, 10 voters, 1 out of every 12 voters, 1 out of every 15 voters and 1 out of every 6 voters in a state and convert them,” Rove said.

 

Rove is not a man who gives up easily. In 2012, he had an on-air meltdown over whether Romney had won or lost Ohio, insisting in vain that the Republican nominee still had a chance to win the election. Romney lost.

 

 

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Show it. The the video evidence. Not what the worker who got filmed saying it said. I watched that video have you? Nobody was dubbed.

I watched the video, and ACORN stated that it was faked. It's clearly a case of O'Keefe vs Several former employees of Acorn.

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New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

- Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.

- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

 

 

 

8b9b61d6e27f3cd4d500110c21529f03e57a2df7

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New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

Hillary%20Bill%20WH_zpsduvqrkma.jpg

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

- Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.

- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 

Hillary%20Bill%20WH_zpsduvqrkma.jpg

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

Hillary%20Bill%20WH_zpsduvqrkma.jpg

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

 

 

 

8b9b61d6e27f3cd4d500110c21529f03e57a2df7

 

Hillary%20Bill%20WH_zpsduvqrkma.jpg

 

Clinton leads Trump, two new polls show

 

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters -- but two new polls diverge on the size of her lead.

 

Clinton is 11 percentage points ahead of Trump, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Sunday.

 

An ABC News/Washington Post poll, meanwhile, pegs her lead at 4 points.

In the NBC poll, Clinton has 48% support compared to 37% for Trump, 7% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% for the Green Party's Jill Stein. In a two-way race, Clinton leads 51% to 41%.

 

The NBC poll shows Trump could have paid a steep price for the "Access Hollywood" tape that showed him bragging about sexually assaulting women, which was followed by nine women claiming specific instances of Trump groping or kissing them without consent.

In a head-to-head with Trump, Clinton leads by 20 points among women -- while Trump is ahead by just 3 points with men.

 

32% say the video disqualified Trump from being president and that he should drop out of the race, while 53% disagree.

 

Clinton's debate performances have helped, too, the NBC poll found. Thirty-one percent of those surveyed said the two debates have made them more likely to vote for Clinton, while 14% say the debates make them more likely to back Trump.

 

The NBC poll shows voters' distaste with Trump doesn't extend to all Republicans: 46% of those polled say they want a Democrats to control Congress, while 44% say they favor a Republican-led Congress.

 

In the ABC poll, meanwhile, Clinton has 47% support to Trump's 43%, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 2%.

 

That's little change from an ABC/Washington Post poll conducted just before the first debate and before the controversy over Trump's taped remarks about sexually assaulting women, which had Clinton's lead at 46% to 44%.

 

However, the poll did find some shifting dynamics in the race. Enthusiasm among Trump supporters is down to 79%, while Clinton's is up to 83% -- erasing the 10-point advantage in that measure that Trump had before the first debate. 68% say Trump probably has made unwanted advances toward women.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/

 

 

 

ABC News: Clinton 52% - Trump 29%

CNN/ORC: Clinton 52% - Trump 39%

Bloomberg: Clinton 52% - Trump 38%

CBS: Clinton 63% - Trump 26%

GWU: Clinton 62% - Trump 27%

 

 

(N=5,000) Average of above 5 Polls

 

Clinton: 281/5 = 56.2%

Trump: 159/5 = 31.8%

 

 

 

Karl Rove is throwing in the towel.

 

In an appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” the Republican strategist said that Donald Trump’s poll numbers are simply too dismal to end in victory on election night.

 

“I don’t see it happening,” Rove told Fox. “If he plays an inside straight, he could get it, but I doubt he’s going to be able to play it.”

 

Rove explained Trump’s electoral vote deficit, swing state by swing state. Mitt Romney only won 206 electoral votes in 2012, and according to Rove’s judgment, Trump can only feel comfortable about 168, with just over two weeks to go before the Nov. 8 election.

 

rump, Rove said, is barely eking out a polling lead in Ohio and Iowa, which Obama won in 2012. But he is also behind in North Carolina and Arizona, states that Romney won. And his deficit in other electoral vote-rich states like Florida is so severe that he is unlikely to pull ahead.

 

“I doubt that in the just over two weeks we’ve got left, conducting the kind of campaign he’s conducting, that he’s going to be able to swing 1 out of every, you know, 10 voters, 1 out of every 12 voters, 1 out of every 15 voters and 1 out of every 6 voters in a state and convert them,” Rove said.

 

Rove is not a man who gives up easily. In 2012, he had an on-air meltdown over whether Romney had won or lost Ohio, insisting in vain that the Republican nominee still had a chance to win the election. Romney lost.

 

 

Hillary%20Bill%20WH_zpsduvqrkma.jpg

 

 

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New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary.

 

Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects
- Over-sample Hispanics
- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 


- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 


2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

 

 

8b9b61d6e27f3cd4d500110c21529f03e57a2df7

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-there-are-4-ways-this-election-can-end-and-3-involve-clinton-winning/

 

Trump has a 1 out 4 chance of winning and its by a razor's edge. Most likely He will win the electoral but lose the popular vote.

Mitt Romney only won 206 electoral votes in 2012, and according to Rove’s judgment, Trump can only feel comfortable about 168, with just over two weeks to go before the Nov. 8 election.

 

rump, Rove said, is barely eking out a polling lead in Ohio and Iowa, which Obama won in 2012. But he is also behind in North Carolina and Arizona, states that Romney won. And his deficit in other electoral vote-rich states like Florida is so severe that he is unlikely to pull ahead.

 

“I doubt that in the just over two weeks we’ve got left, conducting the kind of campaign he’s conducting, that he’s going to be able to swing 1 out of every, you know, 10 voters, 1 out of every 12 voters, 1 out of every 15 voters and 1 out of every 6 voters in a state and convert them,” Rove said.

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