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What is the difference between ABC and IBD polls?


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IBD is the same outfit that vilified Britain's National Health Service because, they claimed, a genius like Stephen Hawking would be declared "essentially worthless" and left to die.

 

Of course, Hawking is actually ON Britain's NHS and always has been, and their care has kept him alive for decades.

 

Take IBD's opinion, on political matters, for what it's what.

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ABC is showing Clinton +12 and IBD Trump +2. Why this huge difference? Almost as if they are polling two different countries?

 

New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are
36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents
."

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

I also want to get your Atlas folks to
recommend oversamples for our polling
before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations
so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

-
Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

-
Over-sample the Native American population

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

-
Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old
, and that it
has enough African American and Hispanic voters
to reflect the state.

- On Independents:
Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida
(check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples,
make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with
potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with
ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with
ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

 

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

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Depends on who is being polled. Are these IBD member polls? Depends on how the question is asked. Depends on what the margin of error is. Depends on how that statistical data is summarized. With only 1-2 point lead being called a win tells you someone fell off a pumpkin wagon. That poll has to have a margin of error, it might be as high as 5%, and is surely at least 2 points resulting in a tie.

 

But any of these statistical means could help explain answers to the discrepancy. Your best bet is find five polls that ask the same question. Take the total percent for each candidate, then divide it by 5. This gives you a large N, or number polled, at least 5,000 across America. And it gives you the average of what those polled think.

 

You can get that data here: http://www.pollingreport.com/index.html

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New Podesta Email Exposes Democrat National Socialist Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

 

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters." Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

Research, microtargeting & polling projects

- Over-sample Hispanics

- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)

- Over-sample the Native American population

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.

- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

 

- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions

- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed

- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 

2016.10.23%20-%20Oversample%201_0.jpg

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.

 

Here is the full report of "Polling & Media Recommendations" from "The Atlas Project."

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