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New poll finds House GOP hosed no matter what they try


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Thursday Oct 13, 2016 · 2:07 PM MDT
Oh yes. We could be putting this baby back in her hands.
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For the second time this week, a new poll finds Democrats with a 7-point lead in the generic congressional ballot—right around the mark they'd need in order to pull off the improbable feat of retaking the House. On Monday, an NBC/Wall Street Journalsurvey said that voters prefer to see Democrats control Congress next year by a 49-42 margin. That was followed on Tuesday by a Global Strategy Group poll for the DCCC that also found Democrats ahead by that exact same 49-42 spread.

But the news is actually much, much worse for Republicans than even this. GSG also tested three hypothetical scenarios that reflect how the final month of the race could unfold in the wake of Donald Trump's "grab them by the pussy" remarks, and every alternative is just terrible for the GOP:

  • Against a Republican "who continues to endorse Donald Trump" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.
  • Similarly, against a "Republican candidate who had supported Trump previously, but just withdrew their support" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.
  • Finally, even against a "Republican candidate who never formally endorsed Donald Trump and now says they won't vote for him" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 10-point advantage.

How do you like that! If Republican congressional candidates stick with Trump, they get knocked down 5 net points—and if they abandon Trump, the exact same thing happens! And unlike many message-testing questions, which so often reflect only the most wishful scenarios, GSG's questions are fast becoming reality. Indeed, the Trump tapes have led to a major shift in strategies for Democrats, who just a few weeks agohad concluded that Trump wouldn't help them sink Republicans in most cases. But given the flood of new ads we've seen since Friday that highlight Trump's offensive comments, there's no doubt that many Democrats now see him as a potent weapon.

Of course, we'll have to see if this lasts. But with Trump gleefully immolating the Republican Party, it very well could. And that could mean a gavel for Nancy Pelosi.




The House looks to be in play after all. And that's terrifying to the con hillbillies.


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