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Predictions: presidential election


laripu
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You can create electoral college maps and share them. Just fun and bragging rights.

 

To do this, go to the 270 to win site, create your map and click share. It will give you a link to an image (a png file). Put that link between two img tags here, and we'll set your predict-pic of the electoral result.

 

Here's my prediction:

0brOW.png

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While it goes against my grain to make a prediction, I respect all those that venture to stab in the dark :) . I suspect Cecelia's prediction might be more realistic, although possibly still on the optimistic side, but hope I am wrong and laripu's prediction is closer to the real outcome. It would benefit our Nation greatly, if the forces of fear and reaction were discredited by a margin, lopsided enough, to reverberate for a long time.

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The states I'm least confident in are Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, so I think Cecilia's prediction is just as plausible as mine.

 

My rationale for those three states is:

In Ohio, governor Kasich is not helping Trump, and will not.

In Florida, Clinton's GOTV effort is well organized (except, they don't yet have lawn signs at the office nearest me :( ).

North Carolina: I have no rationale, it's purely a guess based on recent polls.

 

In general, looking at the support curves, the distance between the two varies with a period of about a month. It's increasing now, should hit a max by mid-October, at which point they'll start getting closer until the election. The October 19 debate will be important. If der Trumfkopfk explodes there, Clinton should get two weeks of mileage out of that and win handily.

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Beside ties, there's an outside chance (a very very low chance) of Gary Johnson winning his state, New Mexico. (He may be polling around 20% there.)

 

If neither Dem nor Rep have 270 votes ... then it goes to the Republican controlled House, who will then possibly install Trump as president even if Clinton has more electoral college votes ... as in this extremly unlikely scenario, laid out here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/

 

Clinton could even get one more EC vote, in Maine, making it 268 to 265, and win the national popular vote, and then lose the election anyway because of the House. Now that's a scary Halloween horror story!

 

screen-shot-2016-10-02-at-10-26-15-am.pn

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Laripu, your last map and scenario is skeeeery!

Yes, indeedy. But it was the fivethirtyeight web site that came up with it, not me.

 

The probability of that happening is about the same as that of a zombie apocalypse ... and just as "skeeeery". :D

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Still a lot that can play out before Nov 8. Both candidates suffer from unusual distrust by the electorate, making the polls subject to big changes with each new development. For instance, Julian Assange is still promising an October surprise.

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The question is, what comes afterwards.

 

Are we going to be stuck in the mud with a do nothing congress? What we need is not just a win to stop the Trump, what we need is a devastating trouncing of all he represents big time!

 

Peace!

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Still a lot that can play out before Nov 8.

How true that is! How true we've seen that to be!

 

I wonder what else is coming?

 

If nothing else, this election cycle had been terrifying, entertaining, and terrifying again.

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I can't decide who I think is going to win.

I'll get back to you on that one.

It's just a game, folks! So far, only two people have overcome their fear of being publicly wrong, to post a prediction map: Cecilia and me. (And arguably, I don't count since I started the thread. Other "I'm afraid of this" maps, aren't predictions unless you say they are.)

 

No-one's going to call you stupid if you're wrong. First of all, we'll probably all be wrong. Secondly, we're all stupid ... this ain't no meetup of Nobel Prize nominees.

 

So put yourself out there. Play the game. Play it more than once if you want. Ain't nobody here but us chickens.

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When Laripu started the thread, his map was my probable "best case" and Cecelia's my probable worst case. I was leaning towards "worst case."

 

With the advantage of time, I'm thinking Laripu's map looks the most likely scenario, but I've now got a new "reach" map.

 

py3m6.pnghttp://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/py3m6.png]

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We're having fun now! 354 + 4 for Maine! I sure hope you're right. :D

You know what would make my election day? If Trump did something horrible, and gave Texas to Clinton. And the house and Senate to the Democrats.

 

OK, obviously that's a crazy fantasy.

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I can play crazy fantasy. I'm hoping for a complete implosion of the republican party, into oblivion. Which would necessitate a third party to rise to take its place (perhaps a liberal party). I don't see any way for that to happen, but I would like it to.

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