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About those polls.....


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A few things to remember....

 

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LOLOLOLOL.....the alternative reality bubble that the rightwingnuts live in is absolutely hilarious.....and based on lies, of course.

 

A couple of quick examples...look at the first and seventh entry on that bogus, unsourced list that one of the forum trolls, ol' ConservaturdUpchucking, posted on one of the rightwingnuts' desperation threads...

 

Then have at look at the real world....

 

Poll: Nearly two-thirds of debate watchers said Hillary Clinton won

CBS NEWS

By REBECCA SHABAD

September 27, 2016

 

Who Won the First Presidential Debate?

Fortune

by Tory Newmyer

SEPTEMBER 26, 2016

Hillary Clinton won. In the first and potentially most consequential presidential debate of 2016, the Democratic nominee presented as composed and commanding, ticking through her policy prescriptions while landing a series of devastating blows on Donald Trumps record and readiness. A fidgety Trump meanwhile tried repeatedly to ruffle her with interruptions while riffing his way through his own answers, but struggled on both counts.

 

Then look at the supposed poll results from, say, CNBC or Time magazine, which in shithead's list shows T'Rump winning 56 to 44 and 59 to 41.

 

Then remember the big difference in polls between formal scientific polling of registered voters and informal Internet polling. Internet polls are far from scientific.

 

Here is how CNBC and Time and others on that list are doing it....

 

Vote: Who won the first presidential debate?

CNBC

The presidential debate is over and both candidates have made their case to the American voter. We heard their positions on homeland security, the economy and the future direction of the country.

Now it's your turn to tell us who the big winner was.

Clinton or Trump: Who do you think won the first presidential debate?

Disclaimer: This is an informal poll. Results are not scientific and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the public as a whole.

 

Vote Now: Who Won the First Clinton-Trump Debate?

TIME

Sept. 26, 2016

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton met for their first presidential debate Monday, and we want to know who you think won.

Take a moment to click the link below next to the candidate who you thought did the best at the debate at Hofstra University in New York.

A disclaimer: Online reader polls like this one are not statistically representative of likely voters, and are not predictive of how the debate outcome will affect the election. They are a measure, however imprecise, of which candidates have the most energized online supporters, or most social media savvy fan base. After all, what they are counting is the number of Internet-devices controlled by people who want to vote.

 

In the wake of Trumps disappointing performance in the debate, his campaign immediately came up with a list of these unscientific online polls and urged his supporters to immediately go online to these various online polls and say that he won.

 

Not only are the CNN and other mainstream scientific polls showing a consensus that Clinton won, the online betting markets have shifted more than 5 points in her direction in the last day, and the stock market says she won.

 

Here's What Wall Street Is Saying About the Presidential Debate

Fortune

by Lucinda Shen

SEPTEMBER 27, 2016

Media outlets might have declared Hillary Clinton the winner of Monday nights presidential debatesbut what does Wall Street say?

 

For the most part, analysts agree that the markets have ruled in the Democratic presidential candidates favor. The Mexican peso, which has been viewed as barometer of whether Trump could winmoving in the opposite direction of the candidates chancessurged over two percent Tuesday. Trump has promised to build a wall between the U.S.-Mexican border.

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You have to ask yourself wgich one you want as president

Yeah....and all of the intelligent SANE people want the qualified SANE candidate - Hillary Clinton - as President.

 

And all of the deplorable, irredeemable, offensive, hateful, mean-spirited, un-American, racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic bigots want T'Rump for their President.

 

I'm pretty sure that there are a lot more of us than there are of you and your deplorable kind, kook of the krappers.

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30 years of her tired ideas

30 years and she never made payroll

30000 damming what did she hide emails deleted

Your rightwingnut myths and fantasies and lies have no connection to the topic of this thread - how the T'Rump campaign got his deplorable supporters to spam the online post-debate polls vs. what the scientifically conducted polls of registered voters who watched the debate show.
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As I was saying....

 

Donald Trump won the debate -- according to useless website polls that mean nothing

Meanwhile, the scientific polls show Hillary Clinton won the debate.

Vox

by German Lopez

Sep 27, 2016

Donald Trump insists he won the presidential debate on Monday night. And to prove it, hes pointing to the polls.

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Donald J. Trump Verified account ‏@realDonaldTrump

Such a great honor. Final debate polls are in - and the MOVEMENT wins! #AmericaFirst #MAGA #ImWithYou http://www.DonaldJTrump.com

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8:47 AM - 27 Sep 2016

 

 

Hillary Clinton also insists she won the debate. And to prove it, she too is pointing to the polls.

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Hillary Clinton - Verified account ‏@HillaryClinton #DebateNight

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8:41 PM - 26 Sep 2016

Whats going on here?

The key difference is the kind of poll the candidates are citing. Trump is going on unscientific online polls, which dont have any controls to make sure they are actually representative of American voters. Clintons claim relies on more rigorous scientific polls -- those like CNNs -- that apply controls to try to be representative of US voters.

 

Because of that, Clintons claim that she won the debate is much more credible. As Huffington Post polling director Ariel Edwards-Levy put it on Twitter, "A poll that does not exert some measure of control over who takes it and how many times they do so is not a poll and you should ignore it."

 

The difference between unscientific and scientific polls

The polls that Trump is relying on let anyone vote with absolutely zero checks. If youre online at the time and find the poll, you can vote. You dont have to live in America or be a US citizen. And you can vote multiple times --- by reopening a browser tab, going behind an internet proxy, or logging on to a different account.

 

As an example, you could right now log on to different Twitter accounts to spam down the results of USA Todays poll for whichever candidate you prefer:

 

This can lead to some very skewed results. For example, if an active online community -- like r/The_Donald, the Reddit community that supports Trump -- gets a bunch of people to vote on a poll (as they did), this can lead to Trump supporters overwhelming the results with a higher percent of Trump supporters than would otherwise be present in a typical sample of American voters. With such a skewed sample, its impossible to take the results seriously -- it turns into a contest over which online community is most enthusiastic about winning unscientific polls, not how US voters feel about who won the debate.

 

This is how Trump came ahead in a few online polls, including those at Drudge Report, Time magazine, and CNBC.

 

The polls Clinton is relying on, on the other hand, use statistical controls to make sure the sample isnt so skewed. They try to contact people that match the voting population -- so theyll try to ensure that a certain percent of respondents in the survey are white, black, Latino, Democrat, Republican, and so on. And if they cant reach the right amount of people, theyll sometimes adopt statistical weights to bring up or down a specific group -- so if a survey has too many men, they might try to weigh the womens responses higher.

 

The CNN/ORC poll on Monday night was a scientific one. CNN acknowledged its sample of Democrats was a bit too high -- since this was a poll taken quickly after the debate, the network and its pollster just didn't have time to do better. Still, the win was overwhelmingly for Clinton -- with 62 percent of voters who watched the debate saying that she won versus 27 percent saying the same for Trump.

 

CNN's poll wasnt the only scientific one to reach this conclusion. Public Policy Polling's post-debate poll found that 51 percent of debate watchers said Clinton won, versus 40 percent who said the same of Trump. So far, CNN and PPPs polls are the only two scientific polls we have.

 

There are questions about how methodologically rigorous even these scientific polls are, given that theyre done so quickly after the debate. But Nate Silver pointed out on FiveThirtyEight that scientific post-debate polls like CNNs tend to correlate with the longer-term trend in broader polls after debates. There's no reason to think that an unscientific poll would have the same value.

 

Still, it's impossible to say what the ultimate effect of the debate will be. As Andrew Prokop explained for Vox, debates tend to have a small impact -- but in a very close election, this small impact can be decisive. So we'll just have to wait for the next few weeks of polling to see if the first presidential debate really makes a difference.

 

Next Up In POLICY & POLITICS

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