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zkyllonen8

Will Hillary Be able to Swing the Progressive side of the Party

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The #BernieorBust movement, in which Bernie Sanders voters threaten to abandon the Democratic Party if Sanders isn’t the nominee, is great for the progressive movement and democracy as a whole. Here’s why:



Hillary can’t win without #BernieorBust voters

Depending on which poll you read, anywhere from one-fourth to one-third of Sen. Sanders’ supporters will refuse to vote for Hillary Clinton if she ends up being the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.


After adding in the remaining sixteen contests, FiveThirtyEight estimates total Democratic primary and caucus turnout for 2016 will hover somewhere around 28.7 million total votes. According to current projections, Sanders will end up with anywhere from 12-14 million of those total votes. Assuming a consistent 30 percent of Sanders supporters are #BernieorBust, around 4 million Sanders voters would refuse to support Hillary Clinton in November.


While 4 million votes may not sound like a lot for a country with over 300 million people, it’s enough to swing a close election. And even if the 4 million figure seems inflated by optimistic projections, John Kerry lost to George W. Bush by just 3 million votes in 2004, which even by a conservative estimate (25% of 12 million) fits the current size of the national #BernieOrBust movement. And of course, Al Gore actually won the popular vote by just over half a million votes in 2000, but lost the electoral vote due to the close margins.


From: http://usuncut.com/politics/bernieorbust-democracy/


This pretty much shows that without the extreme progressives of the Democratic Party than Hilary will have a way harder time winning because the facts above show that 4 million votes is a very sizable number to be reckoned with and we need to push through the progressive policies and agendas that Bernie Sanders in fact has shown to the Millions of Americans that have voted for him.


In all Honesty they shouldn't have last night said that the Bernie or Bust people are stupid just another reason for them not to vote for Hillary


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I'd argue that there is no such thing as an "extreme progressive."

 

No one said Bernie Sanders supporters are stupid last night. I'm quite glad to have Bernie Sanders as part of the Democratic coalition. To win elections Democrats need a broad coalition. When there is a progressive wing that is an essential part of the electoral coalition the issues of concern to that wing get more attention.

 

When extremists swing so far left that they are virtually indistinguishable from the far-right, and/or help enable the right to win electoral victories that would set back hard-won progress, these people are not progressives or extreme progressives.

 

They are just extremists and regressives. Extremist regressives.

 

Bill

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Ok I did not mean to put extreme progressives and yes Sarah Silverman said that the Bernie or Bust people were dumb and yes I agree that if you swing to far to the left than you would not be able to win votes from any other place on the political spectrum

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Ok I did not mean to put extreme progressives and yes Sarah Silverman said that the Bernie or Bust people were dumb and yes I agree that if you swing to far to the left than you would not be able to win votes from any other place on the political spectrum

 

No, in point of fact she said those booing were "being ridiculous."

 

It looked very bad that some delegates booed while one of the heroes of the cil rights movement, Elijah Cummings, was attempting to speak. Or that they booed Bernie, or disrupted Elizabeth Warren. There is a fringe element . They are extremists who will prove to be regressives.

 

But most Sanders supporters will join him in helping HRC defeat Trump. Is the possibility that a vote spilt effort by extremist regressives could give the margin of victory to the Republicans? It has happened before.

 

So I hope we learn the lessons of (recent) history.

 

Bill

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Will Hillary Be able to Swing the Progressive side of the Party

 

Although the article is detailed and well-sourced, it appears to place absolute faith in very early polling numbers. The sting of Bernie's defeat and perceived betrayal is still fresh in the minds of Bernie's supporters and is bound to fade during the next 100 days ,,,. And partisans, including Bernie's, are prone to hide their most basic feelings to make a point. Their point being rejection of Hillary and loyalty to Bernie and the cause ... And their most basic feelings likely being, to eventually support the far lesser evil to defeat the truly monstrous threat.

 

Polls showing "one-fourth to one-third of Sen. Sanders’ supporters will refuse to vote for Hillary Clinton" are not to be taken seriously so soon after Bernie's primary defeat, under compromised circumstances. When those same polls are taken, 90 days from now, the results will, probably, be very different.

 

Polls are snapshots in time. The picture changes as circumstances evolve. When the race gets truly underway and the fight deepens, the Democratic side, seemingly divided now, will solidify and unite, on the side of their candidate.

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I wonder why Hillary keeps kicking the Bernie supporters to the ground? Doesn't she realize she needs the votes? Does she think she can reject policy after policy that helps people in favor of the rich and still win?

 

Oh, yea, she probably can. Even if she doesn't win outright she can get the supreme court to void the election and appoint her, just like they did for bush.

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