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Could the Universe and Life just be Random Chance?


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I have seen many people (Hawkins for one) both scientist and not put forth that everything was just a random event--no creation just luck of the draw. Could this be true?

In fact-yes. It could be true.

Like all things we must examine the evidence.

Many people assume that if there are billions of galaxies and even more billions of planets and billion of years - well then it just MUST be one or two that everything was just right and -presto changeo- here we are.

They use the fact we DO exist to prove that it must be we are just the one.

Is there anything wrong with this logic?

Only one thing - the people making this claim are not looking at the numbers.

For example, on another forum - a woman put forth that to win the lotto it was one in 200 million - yet somebody did win. In her mind we are the same thing. Does this logic work?

Well, it would if the odds were 1 in 200 million. Because she has no feel for numbers this seems like a logical choice.

Yet, ask the same person this question: how many people have won the lotto twice?

The answer is it has happened. In fact, some people have won the lotto 7 times and even more.

But, answer the question: How many people have won the lotto 1000 times? The answer is zero.

But WHY? There are lotto winners and they have played it a thousand times (say most days for 4 years) - why no 1000 time lotto winners ? It is a simple calculation. The chances of winning a lotto at 1 in 200 million a 1000 times just are too great to happen during the time interval we are looking at... BUT IT COULD HAPPEN. We can't say there is no chance to win a lotto 1000 times. We can say with very high confidence (99.999999...%) the rate of lotto drawings and the odds of winning we will never see it during the lifetime of the Universe.

It is a similar calculation for random creation. Just look at what Hawkins has put forth. How do you get something out of nothing? You have equal amounts of positive and negative. 1-1=0. There is no "net creation". Hawkins called it a "free lunch". Calculations on the formation of the Universe show anti matter and matter at equal amounts. So, why didn't it all just cancel out? Well, Hawkins said it must have just been just right so everything did not cancel out - what was his proof? Well, that we existed. The fact matter exists means that it didn't cancel out.

This is circular logic at its worse. Imagine all the matter in the Universe. Let us call that red marbles. Now all the anti-matter in the Universe call that blue marbles. Imagine the chances a gallon of red marbles plus a gallon of blue marbles mixed in a five gallon bucket and then randomly poured out would only have red marbles? Even this experiment can be shown as so remote we would not expect it to happen if it were performed once per second for the life of the Universe. We can't say it is impossible - only we would be 99.9999...% sure we would never see it. But now, instead of one gallon of marbles, we mix trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

red and blue marbles. What are the chances that we can pour out trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion only red marbles?

This is why I say it takes much more faith to believe in random creation than a God creating. I can't say your belief is impossible. I can say I wish I had your faith.

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You get at a lot of things there, but one of them that matter and antimatter should cancel out. Well yes that is a nice theory and based on our current understanding of physics that statement is true, but our current understanding is false as there is an experimentally known matter antimatter inbalance http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.6173

 

Also making up odds and then saying well that is very unlikely is not a persuasive case.

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What do people say when you ask them the chances of a coin coming up heads when you toss it? 50/50. Does that mean that when you toss it, it comes up heads, then you toss it again and it comes up tails, then heads etc? After all, the chances are 50/50. No The coin will not do that. In fact, you could toss it a trillion times and if it came up heads every one of those times, it would not violate the 50/50 chance standard. Because if you toss it enough times, the 50/50 chance standard will present itself. So with the red and blue marble example, if you set it up and dump it enough times, eventually all the red (or blue) marbles will come out first.

 

Odds by themselves are only half of the equation. The amount of time, when there's enough of it, makes the chances of every variation in every event, every appearance of something, a certainty.

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What do people say when you ask them the chances of a coin coming up heads when you toss it? 50/50. Does that mean that when you toss it, it comes up heads, then you toss it again and it comes up tails, then heads etc? After all, the chances are 50/50. No The coin will not do that. In fact, you could toss it a trillion times and if it came up heads every one of those times, it would not violate the 50/50 chance standard. Because if you toss it enough times, the 50/50 chance standard will present itself. So with the red and blue marble example, if you set it up and dump it enough times, eventually all the red (or blue) marbles will come out first.

 

Odds by themselves are only half of the equation. The amount of time, when there's enough of it, makes the chances of every variation in every event, every appearance of something, a certainty.

And evolutionists claim they don't base their reality on faith.

LOL

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Some Christians actively try to prove the truthfulness of the Bible. They completely miss the point of faith. If it could be empirically proven, through scientific method, that Moses parted the Red Sea, then faith would not be necessary. If the miracles of the Bible were shown to be factual beyond doubt, then the mystical would become mundane, and divine would become dirt.

 

Don't bother to prove the historical facts of your dogma. Just be happy that you have faith, and let others who live without faith, wallow in their own misery

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You get at a lot of things there, but one of them that matter and antimatter should cancel out. Well yes that is a nice theory and based on our current understanding of physics that statement is true, but our current understanding is false as there is an experimentally known matter antimatter inbalance http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.6173

 

Also making up odds and then saying well that is very unlikely is not a persuasive case.

Really professor?

How many things do you believe when the confidence level is 99.9999999999.......% against it?

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Tex, the odds against all the oxygen atoms in the room you're in being in the positions they occupy in any given segment of time, like a femtosecond, which is one millionth of one billionth of a second, are far greater than the probabilities you've put up in this thread.

 

That does not stop those atoms from occupying their respective positions from instant to instant, though, does it. I don't think there is a way to express the smallness of the confidence level in such an example.

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What do people say when you ask them the chances of a coin coming up heads when you toss it? 50/50. Does that mean that when you toss it, it comes up heads, then you toss it again and it comes up tails, then heads etc? After all, the chances are 50/50. No The coin will not do that. In fact, you could toss it a trillion times and if it came up heads every one of those times, it would not violate the 50/50 chance standard. Because if you toss it enough times, the 50/50 chance standard will present itself. So with the red and blue marble example, if you set it up and dump it enough times, eventually all the red (or blue) marbles will come out first.

 

Odds by themselves are only half of the equation. The amount of time, when there's enough of it, makes the chances of every variation in every event, every appearance of something, a certainty.

eventually all the red (or blue) marbles will come out first.

 

True...but the keyword is eventually. When eventually means that you perform the experiment every second for 14 billion years (the length of time of the Universe) and you are 99.99999999....% sure it won't happen....well you have to have A LOT of faith you are just really really lucky.

 

Remember...this is just not an academic exercise. The lost are betting their eternal destination...should you NOT be so lucky you are in hell forever.

 

What we have are people here on LF and all over the world making that bet. They can calculate they have a 99.99999999% chance of being wrong. If there is a God then his bible says all those with sin (anyone not perfect in thought word or deed) will be in hell forever.

 

Yet, they continue to make the bet...which at no cost to themselves they could be spared for sure....

 

And..they call Christians crazy.....

 

 

Tex, the odds against all the oxygen atoms in the room you're in being in the positions they occupy in any given segment of time, like a femtosecond, which is one millionth of one billionth of a second, are far greater than the probabilities you've put up in this thread.

 

That does not stop those atoms from occupying their respective positions from instant to instant, thought, does it.

 

 

Sorry, you are incorrect. That is not the way you calculate probabilities. You cannot look back at past events and say "what are the chances" knowing the outcome. The o2 molecules will be somewhere...there is 100% chance of that

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Some Christians actively try to prove the truthfulness of the Bible. They completely miss the point of faith. If it could be empirically proven, through scientific method, that Moses parted the Red Sea, then faith would not be necessary. If the miracles of the Bible were shown to be factual beyond doubt, then the mystical would become mundane, and divine would become dirt.

 

Don't bother to prove the historical facts of your dogma. Just be happy that you have faith, and let others who live without faith, wallow in their own misery

There is where you are wrong. It is too easy, and not biblical, to say "have faith" which you take to mean BLIND FAITH. You just can't find it in the bible. In fact, over and over, God is asked to show He is the true God.

 

Moses asked God for something to show the people he was sent from God. God did not say "If they have faith, they will believe you." No it did not happen that way...I can give countless examples showing the same thing.

 

Our science has PROVEN how near impossible it is we are here by chance. I know you hate it when science proves something you refuse to believe. That does not change the facts. There are many countless examples I can give - for example the strength of gravity is on a razor's edge. This does not impress you, however. I can show the absolute statistical insanity necessary for you to NOT believe in God's creation. This has nothing to do with faith. It is science. Yet, you CANNOT allow yourself to accept there is a God. It then is not a question of science but refusal to submit to God. Nothing new about that...it is a cop out to just say "there is no proof" when all this proof is staring you in the face.

 

That is my job...to keep it in your face.

 

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Tex, who said anything about looking at that atom probability in the past? The chances of any atom being in a given place are horrifyingly tiny, yet, as you said, it will be in in such a place. Same with the lottery. You have, say, a one-in-seven-million chance of winning. So the chances of a given person winning are tiny, but the chances of someone winning are 100%.

 

I flatly do not believe that anyone anywhere has the slightest ability to wrap their mind around the length of time the phrase "14 billion years" represents. And a thing can happen, such as a DNA change (that's all evolution is, changes in DNA) at any moment, even when the chances are against it.

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Just be happy that you have faith, and let others who live without faith, wallow in their own misery

 

there are plenty of people with faith that are miserable scum sucking slime bags. I would never call that a reason to be happy though. To me it looks like a typical example of confusing faith with the need to be envied. there is nothing that people wont lie to themselves about.

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Tex, um, how do you think you're going to draw anyone to your beliefs when you, as you say, "keep it in your face?" Are you stupid?

The lost I am trying to reach here are not ignorant. They are stubborn.

 

I know it irritates the devil out of them to have someone like me pointing out how crazy they are to reject God. They particularly dislike it when the evidence is scientific.

 

They have already heard and rejected Christ. If someone won't leave a burning house you might have to hit them up side the head to get their attention. Sure, they won't like it - but look at what is at stake...eternal hell.

 

Face it - most Christians I know won't waste their time on these souls. They have been written off.

The lost here have heard AND REJECTED the love message. Yes, they may hear the YOU ARE GOING TO HELL message and reject that too. What else can we do? It is all the truth. If they reject the truth - they are lost forever.

 

Don't you care about them? Do you WANT to see them go to hell? Why don't you DO something for them?

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Tex, who said anything about looking at that atom probability in the past? The chances of any atom being in a given place are horrifyingly tiny, yet, as you said, it will be in in such a place. Same with the lottery. You have, say, a one-in-seven-million chance of winning. So the chances of a given person winning are tiny, but the chances of someone winning are 100%.

 

I flatly do not believe that anyone anywhere has the slightest ability to wrap their mind around the length of time the phrase "14 billion years" represents. And a thing can happen, such as a DNA change (that's all evolution is, changes in DNA) at any moment, even when the chances are against it.

You need to read again - what are the chances on one person winning 1000 lotteries? Has not happened, has it?

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The lost I am trying to reach here are not ignorant. They are stubborn.

 

I know it irritates the devil out of them to have someone like me pointing out how crazy they are to reject God. They particularly dislike it when the evidence is scientific.

 

They have already heard and rejected Christ. If someone won't leave a burning house you might have to hit them up side the head to get their attention. Sure, they won't like it - but look at what is at stake...eternal hell.

 

Face it - most Christians I know won't waste their time on these souls. They have been written off.

The lost here have heard AND REJECTED the love message. Yes, they may hear the YOU ARE GOING TO HELL message and reject that too. What else can we do? It is all the truth. If they reject the truth - they are lost forever.

 

Don't you care about them? Do you WANT to see them go to hell? Why don't you DO something for them?

you are not qualified to help anyone except yourself, and hardly that.

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I have seen many people (Hawkins for one) both scientist and not put forth that everything was just a random event--no creation just luck of the draw. Could this be true?

In fact-yes. It could be true.

Like all things we must examine the evidence.

Many people assume that if there are billions of galaxies and even more billions of planets and billion of years - well then it just MUST be one or two that everything was just right and -presto changeo- here we are.

They use the fact we DO exist to prove that it must be we are just the one.

Is there anything wrong with this logic?

Only one thing - the people making this claim are not looking at the numbers.

For example, on another forum - a woman put forth that to win the lotto it was one in 200 million - yet somebody did win. In her mind we are the same thing. Does this logic work?

Well, it would if the odds were 1 in 200 million. Because she has no feel for numbers this seems like a logical choice.

Yet, ask the same person this question: how many people have won the lotto twice?

The answer is it has happened. In fact, some people have won the lotto 7 times and even more.

But, answer the question: How many people have won the lotto 1000 times? The answer is zero.

But WHY? There are lotto winners and they have played it a thousand times (say most days for 4 years) - why no 1000 time lotto winners ? It is a simple calculation. The chances of winning a lotto at 1 in 200 million a 1000 times just are too great to happen during the time interval we are looking at... BUT IT COULD HAPPEN. We can't say there is no chance to win a lotto 1000 times. We can say with very high confidence (99.999999...%) the rate of lotto drawings and the odds of winning we will never see it during the lifetime of the Universe.

It is a similar calculation for random creation. Just look at what Hawkins has put forth. How do you get something out of nothing? You have equal amounts of positive and negative. 1-1=0. There is no "net creation". Hawkins called it a "free lunch". Calculations on the formation of the Universe show anti matter and matter at equal amounts. So, why didn't it all just cancel out? Well, Hawkins said it must have just been just right so everything did not cancel out - what was his proof? Well, that we existed. The fact matter exists means that it didn't cancel out.

This is circular logic at its worse. Imagine all the matter in the Universe. Let us call that red marbles. Now all the anti-matter in the Universe call that blue marbles. Imagine the chances a gallon of red marbles plus a gallon of blue marbles mixed in a five gallon bucket and then randomly poured out would only have red marbles? Even this experiment can be shown as so remote we would not expect it to happen if it were performed once per second for the life of the Universe. We can't say it is impossible - only we would be 99.9999...% sure we would never see it. But now, instead of one gallon of marbles, we mix trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

red and blue marbles. What are the chances that we can pour out trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion only red marbles?

This is why I say it takes much more faith to believe in random creation than a God creating. I can't say your belief is impossible. I can say I wish I had your faith.

 

Absolutely not! the odds of it being pure happenstance are astronomical. Everything was definitely Created by a benevolent Intelligent Creator There is no other logical explanation.

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Really professor?

How many things do you believe when the confidence level is 99.9999999999.......% against it?

Your arugment was based on matter and antimatter being in equall amounts at the start, but we know (and I linked to) experimental evidence that shows more matter than antimatter is created by high energy events, the difference is small but does exist. So we don't need a random fluke to explain the extra matter, it is a fundamental fact of nature.

 

 

 

What else can we do? It is all the truth.

 

You saying something is truth doesn't make it so.

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You need to read again - what are the chances on one person winning 1000 lotteries? Has not happened, has it?

It would if given enough time.

 

Two Australian golfers made consecutive holes-in-one on the same hole. The odds against that are 17 million-to-one.

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golftalkcentral/duo-defies-17-million-1-odds-back-back-aces/

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It's not based on faith, but on facts proven by scientific theories. Besides, you can be Christian and believe in evolution

Clearly you don't understand your own position, but carry on with your mindless, leftwing talking points.

 

It would if given enough time.

 

Two Australian golfers made consecutive holes-in-one on the same hole. The odds against that are 17 million-to-one.

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golftalkcentral/duo-defies-17-million-1-odds-back-back-aces/

So, do you play the lottery, or not?

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Clearly you don't understand your own position, but carry on with your mindless, leftwing talking points.

So, do you play the lottery, or not?

 

How do I not understand my own position? I can be an evolutionist and believe in Christ at the same time.

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