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Reinhart And Rogoff's Pro-Austerity Research Now Even More Thoroughly Debunked By Studies

 

The debunking of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff continues.

The Harvard economists have argued that mistakes and omissions in their influential research on debt and economic growth don't change their ultimate austerity-justifying conclusion: That too much debt hurts growth.

But even this claim has now been disproved by two new studies, which suggest the opposite might in fact be true: Slow growth leads to higher debt, not the other way around.

In a post at Quartz, University of Michigan economics professor Miles Kimball and University of Michigan undergraduate student Yichuan Wang write that they have crunched Reinhart and Rogoff's data and found "not even a shred of evidence" that high debt levels lead to slower economic growth.

And a new paper by University of Massachusetts professor Arindrajit Dube finds evidence that Reinhart and Rogoff had the relationship between growth and debt backwards: Slow growth appears to cause higher debt, if anything.

As you can see from the chart from Dube's paper below, growth tends to be slower in the five years before countries have high debt levels. In the five years after they have high debt levels, there is no noticeable difference in growth at all, certainly not at the 90 percent debt-to-GDP level that Reinhart and Rogoff's 2010 paper made infamous. Kimball and Wang present similar findings in their Quartz piece. (Story continues below chart.)

original.jpgThis contradicts the conclusion of Reinhart and Rogoff's 2010 paper, "Growth in a Time of Debt," which has been used to justify austerity programs around the world. In that paper, and in many other papers, op-ed pieces and congressional testimony over the years, Reinhart And Rogoff have warned that high debt slows down growth, making it a huge problem to be dealt with immediately. The human costs of this error have been enormous.

Even after University of Massachusetts graduate student Thomas Herndon found Reinhart and Rogoff's work included errors and that their 2010 paper was missing important data, the researchers stood by their ultimate conclusion: that growth dropped off significantly after debt hit 90 percent of GDP. They claimed that austerity opponents like Paul Krugman have been so so rude to them for no good reason.

At the same time, they have tried to distance themselves a bit from the chicken-and-egg problem of whether debt causes slow growth, or vice-versa. "The frontier question for research is the issue of causality," they said in their lengthy New York Times piece responding to Herndon.

It looks like they should have thought a little harder about that frontier question three years ago.

 

Debunked Economists Face Even More Embarassment

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Reinhart And Rogoff's Pro-Austerity Research Now Even More Thoroughly Debunked By Studies

 

The troll who still denies the Reagan Boom is going to issue an opinion on Economics?

 

How utterly absurd.

 

Why don't you write about an issue you better understand, like nuclear physics? :D

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The troll who still denies the Reagan Boom is going to issue an opinion on Economics?

 

How utterly absurd.

 

Why don't you write about an issue you better understand, like nuclear physics? :D

You have been brain washed and bulls--ted so much in your life, that you would recognize facts, if someone shoved a truck load of them up your dumb a$$.

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I will be glad when you graduate middle school sanford.

I guess basement boy is your mentor regarding economics right? well good luck beer freak, your damn sure gonna' need truck loads of luck on that one. The only good thing about it, is that If you are a betting man, basement boy will give you some absolute sure thing tip's on who will win presidential elections,

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There has never been an economic boom under a liberal. No, Clinton was not and is not a progressive liberal.

 

The only Clinton policy that passed was his huge tax hike that slowed growth by almost half by 1995.

 

Yet liberals claim his policies caused the prosperity.

 

There's a hole in logic as big as the Grand Canyon. :D

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The only Clinton policy that passed was his huge tax hike that slowed growth by almost half by 1995.

 

Yet liberals claim his policies caused the prosperity.

 

There's a hole in logic as big as the Grand Canyon. :D

Yeah slowed it so much that he wound up with a budget surplus, You must find it might tiresome to be an expert in every f--king thing that exists basement boy. You are helpful in the fact that we can depend on whatever you say and do the opposite, and we will come out fine.

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Yeah slowed it so much that he wound up with a budget surplus, You must find it might tiresome to be an expert in every f--king thing that exists basement boy. You are helpful in the fact that we can depend on whatever you say and do the opposite, and we will come out fine.

 

A. There was never a surplus.

B. The Republicans and the tech boom had more to do with the economy under Clinton's presidency than anything Clinton actually did himself.

C. You went full retard. Never go full retard.

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A. There was never a surplus.

B. The Republicans and the tech boom had more to do with the economy under Clinton's presidency than anything Clinton actually did himself.

C. You went full retard. Never go full retard.

Yeah and there was no Bush and his great recession, and the sun is just a frozen ball of ice, I get the idea chicken brain. You retards can never understand that it is you, and not everyone else on the planet that is retarded, but being retarded as you are it just looks that way to you. You have to admit that you are retarded before anyone can help you. My parents told me to never call anyone retarded, but I figure if I don't, how the f--k are they gonna know, so they can try to get themselves some help.

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All this proves is that it's a spending problem.

 

Not at all.....try again. That was a weak answer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where are the jobs?

 

 

 

Why don't you ask your boys the republicans who campaigned and won in 2010 on jobs jobs jobs.

but in your case you'd have to get off your fat ass and get out there and actually apply for some.

but your lifelong committment to this forum appears to be your top priority.

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Yeah and there was no Bush and his great recession, and the sun is just a frozen ball of ice, I get the idea chicken brain. You retards can never understand that it is you, and not everyone else on the planet that is retarded, but being retarded as you are it just looks that way to you. You have to admit that you are retarded before anyone can help you. My parents told me to never call anyone retarded, but I figure if I don't, how the f--k are they gonna know, so they can try to get themselves some help.

 

As I said, never go full retard.

 

Dems shrink deficits, Cons grow them. Its been happpening this way consistently for 40 years.

 

Are you going by Congress or presidents?

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The troll who still denies the Reagan Boom is going to issue an opinion on Economics?

 

How utterly absurd.

 

Why don't you write about an issue you better understand, like nuclear physics? :D

 

Ronald Reagan was a corporate puppet, an actor, and a clown. He can no more take credit for any economic expansion than a chicken can take credit for the sunrise. The U.S. economy expanded despite Reagan's incompetent corruption. And the current economic depression is the direct and proximate result of his idiotic, incompetent, corrupt, supply side, trickle down, voodoo economic stupidity.

 

Dems shrink deficits, Cons grow them. Its been happpening this way consistently for 40 years.

 

Republicans can't:

 

Manage an economy,

Balance a budget, or

Win a war.

 

What republicans can do is lie through their teeth, cheat and steal.

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Ronald Reagan was a corporate puppet, an actor, and a clown. He can no more take credit for any economic expansion than a chicken can take credit for the sunrise. The U.S. economy expanded despite Reagan's incompetent corruption. And the current economic depression is the direct and proximate result of his idiotic, incompetent, corrupt, supply side, trickle down, voodoo economic stupidity.

 

 

 

 

 

reagan-ears.gif

 

reagan proved two things. Trickle down economics didn't trickle down and president should be removed after he gets dementia while in office.

 

 

A. There was never a surplus.

B. The Republicans and the tech boom had more to do with the economy under Clinton's presidency than anything Clinton actually did himself.

 

 

Just like a repuke....lies , lies and more lies about Clinton.

To say there wasn't a surplus in this country when Clinton left office is just mind numblingly wrong.

 

Reinhart And Rogoff's Pro-Austerity Research Now Even More Thoroughly Debunked By Studies

 

 

 

Debunked Economists Face Even More Embarassment

 

Look what happened in the Eurozone economies and unemployment rates after they followed Rhinehart and Rogoff's advice - in the toilet and through the roof respectively.

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reagan proved two things. Trickle down economics didn't trickle down and president should be removed after he gets dementia while in office.

 

His undeniable success proved another thing. There will always be lying trolls like you who deny it.

 

More jobs were created in one good month under Reagan than will be this entire year under Obama.

 

A. There was never a surplus.

B. The Republicans and the tech boom had more to do with the economy under Clinton's presidency than anything Clinton actually did himself.

 

 

Just like a repuke....lies , lies and more lies about Clinton.

To say there wasn't a surplus in this country when Clinton left office is just mind numblingly wrong.

 

You know what your role on the board is; to spread Democrat Talking Point Lies.

 

 

Look what happened in the Eurozone economies and unemployment rates after they followed Rhinehart and Rogoff's advice - in the toilet and through the roof respectively.

 

They never recommended higher spending accompanied by tax hikes, liar.

 

The countries that did follow their advice, like Sweden, Germany, Finland, Eastern Europe, etc are doing quite well.

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There has never been an economic boom under a liberal. No, Clinton was not and is not a progressive liberal.

 

FDR, HST, JFK, WJC . . . and, the way things are shaking out, despite scumpublicans' best efforts to scuttle the economy, BHO!

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reagan-ears.gif

 

reagan proved two things. Trickle down economics didn't trickle down and president should be removed after he gets dementia while in office.

 

 

Just like a repuke....lies , lies and more lies about Clinton.

To say there wasn't a surplus in this country when Clinton left office is just mind numblingly wrong.

 

 

Look what happened in the Eurozone economies and unemployment rates after they followed Rhinehart and Rogoff's advice - in the toilet and through the roof respectively.

 

Clinton did a lot of good. But, in the final analysis, he may have done more harm than good by signing the corrupt, incompetent, republican, Gramm, Leach, Bliley Act, which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act of 1932-3. Glass-Steagall is one of the key pillars of banking regulatory reform, following the republican stock market crash of 1929 and subsequent economic depression, that allowed the massive economic expansion begun under FDR. It took the vulture capitalists only 8 years to crash the U.S. and World economy thereafter.

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